MillvilleWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 That ECMWF dual banding structure is literally so textbook. There will be some impressive amounts with this one so long as the synoptic pattern holds firm. The WAA snows could very well come in like a wall. This is one of the best way we score around here. 17 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Those with a bit more knowledge than me, were a bit too close now to be using ensembles right? Glad the EPS mean is solid don’t get me wrong, but that’s to be expected with the OP euro looking so good for days now. Feels like 72ish hours out we should be relying mainly on OPs? GFS / EURO over GEFS / EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Are you saying we shouldn’t take one run of a deterministic model 3 days put verbatim? Yes…yes he is 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Are you saying we shouldn’t take one run of a deterministic model 3 days out verbatim? eta: Is there a way to block users by location? Like from PA for example? Lol No, just one person at a time. I already blocked a few who came in here from the NY forum (not brooklyn, he’s good) 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Exactly. Plus it has been rock solid for days. If it was any other model we probably toss. But not the Euro. Cannot toss it. Please don’t jinx us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 minutes ago, jayyy said: Those with a bit more knowledge than me, were a bit too close now to be using ensembles right? Glad the EPS mean is solid don’t get me wrong, but that’s to be expected with the OP euro looking so good for days now. Feels like 72ish hours out we should be relying mainly on OPs? GFS / EURO over GEFS / EPS? A wise man once posted this. Could have sworn it was you! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: A wise man once posted this. Could have sworn it was you! That's not accurate. I think eps should be favored through day 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Please don’t jinx us Y'all are locked in...chill. Just hoping the N extent can continue to expand for us in my locale so we all do the snow dance come Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Please don’t jinx us I dont think you love the Euro depiction anyways right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: I dont think you love the Euro depiction anyways right? What? It’s great. The heck you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: That's not accurate. I would add Euro and CMC to Days 1-3, but I think it is pretty good. How would you make it ‘accurate’? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: What? It’s great. The heck you talking about? Oh you are just over the border from Manchester. Nevermind. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Alright, let's kick of the 0z with the NAM appetizer. So far, our s/w is a bit more amp'd out front. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Confluence is going to be better this run. Can tell already. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Confluence is going to be better this run. Can tell already. Honestly, there really isn't much difference. And this is from someone who'd benefit. It's literally like one ass hair difference so far 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Honestly, there really isn't much difference. And this is from someone who'd benefit. It's literally like one ass hair difference so far Its pretty substantial. Look at the 540 and 522 line: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Its pretty substantial. Look at the 540 line: It's an asshair, like Randy said. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Its pretty substantial. Look at the 540 and 522 line: Not really seeing it as substantial. There is a small difference IMO. I'll wait it out, I could be totally wrong. Vort continues to be a bit more amp'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It's an asshair, like Randy said. Its a 30 mile asshair though...:) 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Not really seeing it as substantial. There is a small difference IMO. I'll wait it out, I could be totally wrong. Vort continues to be a bit more amp'd Good observation by clskinsfan, even the tiniest differences in confluence can create big shifts with snowfall. We’re talking about <50 mile shifts. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Good observation by clskinsfan, even the tiniest differences in confluence can create big shifts with snowfall. We’re talking about <50 mile shifts. I mean, sure. Just saying I wouldn't have characterized it as "substantial". Agree on the impacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 See that vort energy pinwheeling across the south end of hudson bay? Could interact with the s/w when it gets closer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 S/w continues to be more amp'd out in front...should be mitigated by the ever so slight increase in confluence. We shall see. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Hey Randy. Is ass hair a technical term bro?? Lol It's indexed in K/U book of snowstorms and incorporated in the NESIS index 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 A wise man once posted this. Could have sworn it was you! That was me for sure. It’s my go to but I’m certainly not a red tagger or as knowledgeable as CAPE PSU and others 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 So far, NAM seems much slower than 18z so far... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Its a 30 mile asshair though...:) Gotta pluck that one. Make it a rope or a fun lasso 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Vort stronger...two countered now vs one on the 18z... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Gotta say this is an extremely dynamic system, wow 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Not as cold as the Euro. But took a step towards it. Over 60 the NAM means nothing. It is starting to sniff out the confluence though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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