The January 5/6 Thing

[clskinsfan]

I mean it is tainted imo. Even out here. See ya'll at 0Z

 

[stormy]

I love it !!    This has been my conviction for 30 hrs. now.   This thing is trending north.

AS I have posted since noon yesterday, mixing will be a HUGE issue ......................................

 

 

[nw baltimore wx]

9 minutes ago, wxmvpete said:

Yep, it was the January 3-4, 2022 event. Here's what it looked like the day before for an example, and we know what it ultimately did in those areas.

Thanks for sharing this site. I’ll be curious to see what it looks like on Sunday!

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, wxmvpete said:

Yep, it was the January 3-4, 2022 event. Here's what it looked like the day before for an example, and we know what it ultimately did in those areas.

I love those products.

I haven't looked hard at DC, but always a little concerned of those N trends final 96 hours or so. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Why does the primary hold on so long and doesn't transfer to a coastal and really crank like some of our bigger storms?

Looks a little wonky to me. Only very subtle differences at h5. Run to run change is nada from 12z to 18z. Chalk it up to 'noise', but given the relatively narrow N-S area where parameters align for heavy snow, pretty small changes can make a notable difference. This is how we roll almost always!

[CAPE]

18z Euro, ever rock steady- the voice of reason- will stop the mini weenie panic lol.

I never set a bar, so the previous simulations that produced  8-12" for my yard are just that. Pretty sure its gonna snow.

[mappy]

42 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Mappy moved it to banter. Lol

In all seriousness, the track appears to be pretty much set within tight goalposts at this point.  Now it is thermals and soundings that are most important to those south of the mason-dixon line.  Stinks to be worried about thermals (especially down here) in our epic cold pattern, but it what it is.  Rooting for a Ukie/Euro blend here.

Moving posts is annoying lol much easier to hide posts and hope people figure it out 

27 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

 

Yassss. Don’t let the southerners hate on you too much lol 

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

18z Euro, ever rock steady- the voice of reason- will stop the mini weenie panic lol.

I never set a bar, so the previous simulations that produced  8-12" for my yard are just that. Pretty sure its gonna snow.

It's not out yet?

[Solution Man]

King is leader for a reason, if he moves north, then he moves north. Remember he has been rock steady from the get.

 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's not out yet?

Not on WB

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

King is leader for a reason, if he moves north, then he moves north. Remember he has been rock steady from the get.

 

Let’s be clear, the euro is still #1 in scoring, but in my eyes isn’t the king it once was. It has had a decent idea on this one for a couple days, but his wavered a fair bit as well (just not as much as some of the others).

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Not on WB

I was saying it's not out yet.  I thought it started around 6:15 or so

[CoastalWx]

It's sort of a decaying deformation area due to the meat grinder to the north, but I expect a narrow ribbon of good snow totals in the H7-H5 deformation axis. Seems like PA border might be best bet? 

 

Oher interesting thing is that hefty WAA precip there moving towards DC on the GFS. You are playing with fire with the mid level warmth, but that area where it's juuust cold enough in the column could have one of those 6 hr blitz-fest.

 

I'll look a little more later.

[T. August]

Can’t post maps right now but the 18z gefs has some real heartbreakers

[CAPE]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I was saying it's not out yet.  I thought it started around 6:15 or so

Yeah its not out yet.

My post was in anticipation of it holding steady vs the apparent ICON led north trend, with the GFS also going that way. 

These run to run variations always happen at this range, and many folks seem to lose sight of the big picture. This pattern is supportive of a significant frozen event across the region, and its happening.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

Can’t post maps right now but the 18z gefs has some real heartbreakers

And yet the mean increased.

 

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's sort of a decaying deformation area due to the meat grinder to the north, but I expect a narrow ribbon of good snow totals in the H7-H5 deformation axis. Seems like PA border might be best bet? 

 

Oher interesting thing is that hefty WAA precip there moving towards DC on the GFS. You are playing with fire with the mid level warmth, but that area where it's juuust cold enough in the column could have one of those 6 hr blitz-fest.

 

I'll look a little more later.

The snow in the backside deform is what I’ve been saying would include some really solid snow growth and ratios. The mid level pass looks supportive. 

hoping a lot of us cash with the thumpy WAA slug then tack on more fluff with that piece. 

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's sort of a decaying deformation area due to the meat grinder to the north, but I expect a narrow ribbon of good snow totals in the H7-H5 deformation axis. Seems like PA border might be best bet? 

 

Oher interesting thing is that hefty WAA precip there moving towards DC on the GFS. You are playing with fire with the mid level warmth, but that area where it's juuust cold enough in the column could have one of those 6 hr blitz-fest.

 

I'll look a little more later.

Yup! That’s something I’ve been noticing and trying to get people to understand. This is one of those situations where things can come in hot and heavy really dump for several hrs before any type of worry of mixing concerns. We go through this down here all the time. If you’re north of I-70, likely all snow. Between I-66 and I-70, could very well stay all snow, but perhaps a short period of pinging. Urban areas inside beltway highest chance of mixing within that second zone. Southern MD and south of I-66 probably see some type of mix given the potential 85H jet being progged. Going to be a fun storm to follow through the end. 

[poolz1]

Question...how would it affect things, if much at all, if the wave never opens up and remains closed as it passes to our south.  The prolonged period of snow after the main WAA seemed better this run.  I noticed that after opening up in SW VA it does close off again in SC VA.  Is this the reason for a better ending to the show?

[T. August]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

And yet the mean increased.

 

Some of the increase in the northern areas is from tomorrow. Almost 1.5 from that (lol)

[Superstorm]

Yup! That’s something I’ve been noticing and trying to get people to understand. This is one of those situations where things can come in hot and heavy really dump for several hrs before any type of worry of mixing concerns. We go through this down here all the time. If you’re north of I-70, likely all snow. Between I-66 and I-70, could very well stay all snow, but perhaps a short period of pinging. Urban areas inside beltway highest chance of mixing within that second zone. Southern MD and south of I-66 probably see some type of mix given the potential 85H jet being progged. Going to be a fun storm to follow through the end. 

50/50 is your friend. Without it, that kind of track would scour out the cold and there would be little if any snow.

Now it will help to enhance the WAA snows. Thump snows!

Notice, even with a further north primary, the southern edge of snows has not moved much.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

Some of the increase in the northern areas is from tomorrow. Almost 1.5 from that (lol)

No it’s not, it was also there in the last run too. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Question...how would it affect things, if much at all, if the wave never opens up and remains closed as it passes to our south.  The prolonged period of snow after the main WAA seemed better this run.  I noticed that after opening up in SW VA it does close off again in SC VA.  Is this the reason for a better ending to the show?

Closed wave passing to our south (central VA) was 2/10/10.

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Yup! That’s something I’ve been noticing and trying to get people to understand. This is one of those situations where things can come in hot and heavy really dump for several hrs before any type of worry of mixing concerns. We go through this down here all the time. If you’re north of I-70, likely all snow. Between I-66 and I-70, could very well stay all snow, but perhaps a short period of pinging. Urban areas inside beltway highest chance of mixing within that second zone. Southern MD and south of I-66 probably see some type of mix given the potential 85H jet being progged. Going to be a fun storm to follow through the end. 

Maybe this is a different case, or the globals are better now, but I’ve always thought that the globals tend to under-predict CAD and we hold onto snow a little longer. Especially with strong confluence to the NE of us (even with it trending more east, it’s still strong)

[wxmvpete]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love those products.

I haven't looked hard at DC, but always a little concerned of those N trends final 96 hours or so. 

Oh for sure. With that event, I remember the forecast quickly changing inside of 48 hours. Between that event and the Northeast bust last Feb, there should always be some sort of check point reviewing guidance and a forecast for us to ask "where could this go wrong (or less amounts)". Still puts into perspective that we are >72 hours from the event starting locally. It's looking for those clues in the short term starting tomorrow with things like "is the LLJ/WAA stronger?, are the sub-freezing wet-bulb temps in the boundary layer sticking around longer than expected?". The increasing probabilities in ensembles help provide more confidence, but for all the "we have 60% chances for >3" of snow where I am" graphics there are, there's also a "well, there's 40% chance it's less". I'd like to think by the 00Z runs tomorrow, we'll be in a more clear picture of where the forecasts stands. 

[poolz1]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Closed wave passing to our south (central VA) was 2/10/10.

So expect blizzard conditions imby, got it!  What a great storm that was.

[WEATHER53]

11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Yup! That’s something I’ve been noticing and trying to get people to understand. This is one of those situations where things can come in hot and heavy really dump for several hrs before any type of worry of mixing concerns. We go through this down here all the time. If you’re north of I-70, likely all snow. Between I-66 and I-70, could very well stay all snow, but perhaps a short period of pinging. Urban areas inside beltway highest chance of mixing within that second zone. Southern MD and south of I-66 probably see some type of mix given the potential 85H jet being progged. Going to be a fun storm to follow through the end. 

Nowcasting  becomes the king!

[T. August]

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

No it’s not, it was also there in the last run too. 

I’m not trying to argue - my point is it also juiced up tomorrow’s thing. The map is a little misleading.

[stormtracker]

Nothing remarkable on the 18z Euro at 48 so far

[MillvilleWx]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Maybe this is a different case, or the globals are better now, but I’ve always thought that the globals tend to under-predict CAD and we hold onto snow a little longer. Especially with strong confluence to the NE of us (even with it trending more east, it’s still strong)

The globals still have that issue at times. This could very well be one of those cases. The depth of cold air initially is pretty good. There will be a fight between that and traditional evap cooling with rates. We know how things roll in these parts. The good news is the storm will come in hot and heavy at the very least. Probably some rippage before any flirting with thermals.