DDweatherman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: King is leader for a reason, if he moves north, then he moves north. Remember he has been rock steady from the get. Let’s be clear, the euro is still #1 in scoring, but in my eyes isn’t the king it once was. It has had a decent idea on this one for a couple days, but his wavered a fair bit as well (just not as much as some of the others). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Not on WB I was saying it's not out yet. I thought it started around 6:15 or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 It's sort of a decaying deformation area due to the meat grinder to the north, but I expect a narrow ribbon of good snow totals in the H7-H5 deformation axis. Seems like PA border might be best bet? Oher interesting thing is that hefty WAA precip there moving towards DC on the GFS. You are playing with fire with the mid level warmth, but that area where it's juuust cold enough in the column could have one of those 6 hr blitz-fest. I'll look a little more later. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Can’t post maps right now but the 18z gefs has some real heartbreakers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, stormtracker said: I was saying it's not out yet. I thought it started around 6:15 or so Yeah its not out yet. My post was in anticipation of it holding steady vs the apparent ICON led north trend, with the GFS also going that way. These run to run variations always happen at this range, and many folks seem to lose sight of the big picture. This pattern is supportive of a significant frozen event across the region, and its happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, T. August said: Can’t post maps right now but the 18z gefs has some real heartbreakers And yet the mean increased. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's sort of a decaying deformation area due to the meat grinder to the north, but I expect a narrow ribbon of good snow totals in the H7-H5 deformation axis. Seems like PA border might be best bet? Oher interesting thing is that hefty WAA precip there moving towards DC on the GFS. You are playing with fire with the mid level warmth, but that area where it's juuust cold enough in the column could have one of those 6 hr blitz-fest. I'll look a little more later. The snow in the backside deform is what I’ve been saying would include some really solid snow growth and ratios. The mid level pass looks supportive. hoping a lot of us cash with the thumpy WAA slug then tack on more fluff with that piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's sort of a decaying deformation area due to the meat grinder to the north, but I expect a narrow ribbon of good snow totals in the H7-H5 deformation axis. Seems like PA border might be best bet? Oher interesting thing is that hefty WAA precip there moving towards DC on the GFS. You are playing with fire with the mid level warmth, but that area where it's juuust cold enough in the column could have one of those 6 hr blitz-fest. I'll look a little more later. Yup! That’s something I’ve been noticing and trying to get people to understand. This is one of those situations where things can come in hot and heavy really dump for several hrs before any type of worry of mixing concerns. We go through this down here all the time. If you’re north of I-70, likely all snow. Between I-66 and I-70, could very well stay all snow, but perhaps a short period of pinging. Urban areas inside beltway highest chance of mixing within that second zone. Southern MD and south of I-66 probably see some type of mix given the potential 85H jet being progged. Going to be a fun storm to follow through the end. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Question...how would it affect things, if much at all, if the wave never opens up and remains closed as it passes to our south. The prolonged period of snow after the main WAA seemed better this run. I noticed that after opening up in SW VA it does close off again in SC VA. Is this the reason for a better ending to the show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: And yet the mean increased. Some of the increase in the northern areas is from tomorrow. Almost 1.5 from that (lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Yup! That’s something I’ve been noticing and trying to get people to understand. This is one of those situations where things can come in hot and heavy really dump for several hrs before any type of worry of mixing concerns. We go through this down here all the time. If you’re north of I-70, likely all snow. Between I-66 and I-70, could very well stay all snow, but perhaps a short period of pinging. Urban areas inside beltway highest chance of mixing within that second zone. Southern MD and south of I-66 probably see some type of mix given the potential 85H jet being progged. Going to be a fun storm to follow through the end. 50/50 is your friend. Without it, that kind of track would scour out the cold and there would be little if any snow.Now it will help to enhance the WAA snows. Thump snows!Notice, even with a further north primary, the southern edge of snows has not moved much. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, T. August said: Some of the increase in the northern areas is from tomorrow. Almost 1.5 from that (lol) No it’s not, it was also there in the last run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Question...how would it affect things, if much at all, if the wave never opens up and remains closed as it passes to our south. The prolonged period of snow after the main WAA seemed better this run. I noticed that after opening up in SW VA it does close off again in SC VA. Is this the reason for a better ending to the show? Closed wave passing to our south (central VA) was 2/10/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Yup! That’s something I’ve been noticing and trying to get people to understand. This is one of those situations where things can come in hot and heavy really dump for several hrs before any type of worry of mixing concerns. We go through this down here all the time. If you’re north of I-70, likely all snow. Between I-66 and I-70, could very well stay all snow, but perhaps a short period of pinging. Urban areas inside beltway highest chance of mixing within that second zone. Southern MD and south of I-66 probably see some type of mix given the potential 85H jet being progged. Going to be a fun storm to follow through the end. Maybe this is a different case, or the globals are better now, but I’ve always thought that the globals tend to under-predict CAD and we hold onto snow a little longer. Especially with strong confluence to the NE of us (even with it trending more east, it’s still strong) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I love those products. I haven't looked hard at DC, but always a little concerned of those N trends final 96 hours or so. Oh for sure. With that event, I remember the forecast quickly changing inside of 48 hours. Between that event and the Northeast bust last Feb, there should always be some sort of check point reviewing guidance and a forecast for us to ask "where could this go wrong (or less amounts)". Still puts into perspective that we are >72 hours from the event starting locally. It's looking for those clues in the short term starting tomorrow with things like "is the LLJ/WAA stronger?, are the sub-freezing wet-bulb temps in the boundary layer sticking around longer than expected?". The increasing probabilities in ensembles help provide more confidence, but for all the "we have 60% chances for >3" of snow where I am" graphics there are, there's also a "well, there's 40% chance it's less". I'd like to think by the 00Z runs tomorrow, we'll be in a more clear picture of where the forecasts stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Closed wave passing to our south (central VA) was 2/10/10. So expect blizzard conditions imby, got it! What a great storm that was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Yup! That’s something I’ve been noticing and trying to get people to understand. This is one of those situations where things can come in hot and heavy really dump for several hrs before any type of worry of mixing concerns. We go through this down here all the time. If you’re north of I-70, likely all snow. Between I-66 and I-70, could very well stay all snow, but perhaps a short period of pinging. Urban areas inside beltway highest chance of mixing within that second zone. Southern MD and south of I-66 probably see some type of mix given the potential 85H jet being progged. Going to be a fun storm to follow through the end. Nowcasting becomes the king! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: No it’s not, it was also there in the last run too. I’m not trying to argue - my point is it also juiced up tomorrow’s thing. The map is a little misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Nothing remarkable on the 18z Euro at 48 so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Maybe this is a different case, or the globals are better now, but I’ve always thought that the globals tend to under-predict CAD and we hold onto snow a little longer. Especially with strong confluence to the NE of us (even with it trending more east, it’s still strong) The globals still have that issue at times. This could very well be one of those cases. The depth of cold air initially is pretty good. There will be a fight between that and traditional evap cooling with rates. We know how things roll in these parts. The good news is the storm will come in hot and heavy at the very least. Probably some rippage before any flirting with thermals. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 I keep checking the timestamp, lol. Because it's like Ctrl+C. Remarkably similar to 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 17 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: The snow in the backside deform is what I’ve been saying would include some really solid snow growth and ratios. The mid level pass looks supportive. hoping a lot of us cash with the thumpy WAA slug then tack on more fluff with that piece. That is really looking like a nice end scenario in the last 24 hours. Hope that continues to juice up. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 I'm bored with this pbp. Only so many ways to say same. no change. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 21 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: And yet the mean increased. Can you post the 12z mean for comparison? I looked back but didn't see it posted. I see individuals but not the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, WxUSAF said: That is really looking like a nice end scenario in the last 24 hours. Hope that continues to juice up. Agreed. Having 4-8" area wide OTG then that piece move through would give us longer duration and a nice bump to the totals. Just don't want to get stuck depending on that type of evolution to do most of the damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Ok, some changes. The time stamp at the bottom says Init: 18z vs Init: 12z at 12z 3 1 25 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That is really looking like a nice end scenario in the last 24 hours. Hope that continues to juice up. If you ignore p-type, the storm through 21z Monday is a fairly uniform 0.5” for most of us. Then we tack on about 0.15” Monday evening on the backside. (18z GFS) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, MN Transplant said: If you ignore p-type, the storm through 21z Monday is a fairly uniform 0.5” for most of us. Then we tack on about 0.15” Monday evening on the backside. That .15 can be 3-4" for sure as we've seen with those kinds of evolutions. Someone mentioned the closed pass in 2/10/10, some areas were melting SLR's in the mid 20's+ IIRC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Raking in progress from 6z to 9z Monday AM. Temps cold 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Continues 12z. Freezing line at 850 and SFC still south and east of DC 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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