stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Just now, TSSN+ said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, snowfan said: Close but that warm nose upstairs has been persistent. Yeah. It's icy. But thats how we do winter storms here. No one should be surprised by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 No real north trend, but possible dry slot then coastal enhancement on the backside. Too soon to nail down all the details where exactly these things are going to happen 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, snowfan said: Close but that warm nose upstairs has been persistent. That looks to me like snow with decent rates and snizzle in dry slot. Don’t think it kills the totals for us if it turns out to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: That's because of this vort at 96. It opens up 6 hours later, but still vigorous. This is a beauty. It's more amped and more neg tilted. That enhancement as this passes is where we can really stack fluff with good growth in the DGZ and 15-20:1 type ratios. As some have said, let's get 5-6" OTG before that part and then play with house money. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: The coastal does a great deal for the subforum - would love to see that feature continue to improve GFS hangs onto the primarily low. Did this a bit at 12z but a little more pronounced this run. Not sure I buy it. Either way not a huge difference but explains some of the mixy issues getting closer for a time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Worth noting that, given the amount of green on the 18Z GFS p-type maps, the GFS is terrible at maintaining cold air damming. If it's in the mid 20s at 7AM, and the sfc winds stay E/NE all day, areas around DC won't get into the mid 30s. 12 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: That looks to me like snow with decent rates and snizzle in dry slot. Don’t think it kills the totals for us if it turns out to correct. I agree. For it to be sleet, it should nose out to -1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: That’s really misleading. A lot of that snow in the mountains drops before the system even arrives. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Just now, high risk said: Worth noting that, given the amount of green on the 18Z GFS p-type maps, the GFS is terrible at maintaining cold air damming. If it's in the mid 20s at 7AM, and the sfc winds stay E/NE all day, areas around DC won't get into the mid 30s. Sounds good to me. I'm actually not worrying about significant mixing attm. Matt and I always kinda factor it in anyway, but not sure it's gonna be as "bad" as shown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, CAPE said: GFS hangs onto the primarily low. Did this a bit at 12z but a little more pronounced this run. Not sure I buy it. Either way not a huge difference but explains some of the mixy issues getting closer for a time. I feel like things have been trending that way - would certainly help you out. It throws D.C. an extra 2" that get lost during the dry slot... could maybe end up a win-win, as I think @WxUSAF mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Just now, snowfan said: That’s really misleading. A lot of that snow in the mountains drops before the system even arrives. I'm still trying to figure what they are trying to convey. I mean, did I say something wrong? Looks as described? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, wxmvpete said: One of my favorite products in assessing the potential for extreme events is the ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index (EFI). The link for the page is here: https://satable.ncep.noaa.gov/efi/. To read up on it more from the ECMWF, you can visit here: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FUG/Section+8.1.9+Extreme+Forecast+Index+-+EFI%2C+and+Shift+of+Tails+-+SOT. If you haven't seen it before, in quoting the ECMWF page, the EFI "compares the medium range ensemble forecast probability distribution of an event to the M-climate distribution for the chosen location, time of year and forecast lead time. The underlying assumption is that, if a forecast is anomalous or extreme with respect to the M-climate (re-forecast database over the past 20 years), the real weather is also likely to be anomalous or extreme compared to the real climate. Simple probabilities derived from the ensemble (e.g. the probability that forecast temperature >32°C) do not highlight the differences in the distributions of forecast. However, EFI will do so because it accounts for the distribution of all the ensemble members. EFI takes values between +1 and -1. Experience suggests: EFI values between 0.5 to 0.8 (irrespective of sign) can be generally regarded as signifying that ““unusual”” weather is likely, EFI values above 0.8 (irrespective of sign) as usually signifying that ““very unusual”” or extreme weather is likely. " In this case using the new 12Z ECMWF EFI, maybe it is because it's been so long, but we do have some >0.8 values in northern VA that I can't recall seeing before (granted this product is still fairly new). Note as well is the Shift of Tails area. The Shift of Tails according to ECMWF "...compares the tails of both distributions of M-climate and ensemble based on the 90th and 99th (upper tail) percentiles...The SOT index complements EFI by providing information about how extreme an event could potentially be. Specifically, it compares the tails of the ensemble and M-climate distributions." Usually, my eyebrows rise some when we have a ~0.7 and >1 SoT look. We have a >0.8 and even a 5 SoT in Northern VA. This tool can be used to show the event that the ECMWF ENS distribution suggests a very unusual snow event is likely based off the 20-year running climo, but some of the members are on the more extreme side given the higher SoT. Yep, it was the January 3-4, 2022 event. Here's what it looked like the day before for an example, and we know what it ultimately did in those areas. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, stormtracker said: Sounds good to me. I'm actually not worrying about significant mixing attm. Matt and I always kinda factor it in anyway, but not sure it's gonna be as "bad" as shown. I agree. And I'm likely not using the GFS thermals for any indication of what mixing could occur. A setup like this with the flow scheme as High Risk said isn't sending sfc temps into the mid 30's. There might be a ML warm nose if the primary drives up into C WV and is a bit more amped, but I'd expect some kind of CAD wedge to counter it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'm still trying to figure what they are trying to convey. I mean, did I say something wrong? Looks as described? sorry - I wasn't trying to disagree with you. Just posing the WxBell maps since you've said yourself the SV ones are bad. Added the context of previous runs since I didn't think it could hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Why does the primary hold on so long and doesn't transfer to a coastal and really crank like some of our bigger storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: sorry - I wasn't trying to disagree with you. Just posing the WxBell maps since you've said yourself the SV ones was bad. Added the context of previous runs since I didn't think it could hurt. Ah, ok. lol. I was just confused for a sec. And thanks. WB maps are so much better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I feel like things have been trending that way - would certainly help you out. It throws D.C. an extra 2" that get lost during the dry slot... could maybe end up a win-win, as I think @WxUSAF mentioned earlier. Eh I will take 12z all day over this run verbatim lol. Very nice run for the southern PA folks though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Wait, are we saying the ICON is leading the way for 18z now? 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Wait, are we saying the ICON is leading the way for 18z now? What? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I mean it is tainted imo. Even out here. See ya'll at 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I love it !! This has been my conviction for 30 hrs. now. This thing is trending north. AS I have posted since noon yesterday, mixing will be a HUGE issue ...................................... 1 3 1 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, wxmvpete said: Yep, it was the January 3-4, 2022 event. Here's what it looked like the day before for an example, and we know what it ultimately did in those areas. Thanks for sharing this site. I’ll be curious to see what it looks like on Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 13 minutes ago, wxmvpete said: Yep, it was the January 3-4, 2022 event. Here's what it looked like the day before for an example, and we know what it ultimately did in those areas. I love those products. I haven't looked hard at DC, but always a little concerned of those N trends final 96 hours or so. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Why does the primary hold on so long and doesn't transfer to a coastal and really crank like some of our bigger storms? Looks a little wonky to me. Only very subtle differences at h5. Run to run change is nada from 12z to 18z. Chalk it up to 'noise', but given the relatively narrow N-S area where parameters align for heavy snow, pretty small changes can make a notable difference. This is how we roll almost always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18z Euro, ever rock steady- the voice of reason- will stop the mini weenie panic lol. I never set a bar, so the previous simulations that produced 8-12" for my yard are just that. Pretty sure its gonna snow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 42 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Mappy moved it to banter. Lol In all seriousness, the track appears to be pretty much set within tight goalposts at this point. Now it is thermals and soundings that are most important to those south of the mason-dixon line. Stinks to be worried about thermals (especially down here) in our epic cold pattern, but it what it is. Rooting for a Ukie/Euro blend here. Moving posts is annoying lol much easier to hide posts and hope people figure it out 27 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Yassss. Don’t let the southerners hate on you too much lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: 18z Euro, ever rock steady- the voice of reason- will stop the mini weenie panic lol. I never set a bar, so the previous simulations that produced 8-12" for my yard are just that. Pretty sure its gonna snow. It's not out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 King is leader for a reason, if he moves north, then he moves north. Remember he has been rock steady from the get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's not out yet? Not on WB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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