stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 The most important GFS run until the next GFS run. Rolling in now... 10 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: I can't show that, not allowed. But I can tell you it looks great for DC metro. Someone beat you to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Kinda weird glitch on my GFS. SFC map coming out way faster than H5. If this keeps up, just gonna have to eyeball the SFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 So far, no significant changes...im at 51 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 No remarkable changes at this time. Looks like 12z..I'm up to 69hr 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, J.Mike said: Where is Ji’s “the most important run of my life” post? Mappy moved it to banter. Lol In all seriousness, the track appears to be pretty much set within tight goalposts at this point. Now it is thermals and soundings that are most important to those south of the mason-dixon line. Stinks to be worried about thermals (especially down here) in our epic cold pattern, but it what it is. Rooting for a Ukie/Euro blend here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Precip panels starting to come into view for our area...it's early, but orientation is shifted every so barely souther 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 h5 panels caught up. Vort is a bit more amp'd vs 12z. Money shots about to come into view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Fyi, precip panels from Icon ensembles. Look at the precip in PA vs DC/BWI. Operational Icon on crack. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 GFS looks like a bowling ball at 72 Souther at 78 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Precip starts at around 1-2am. Vort continues to be just a bit more amp'd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Just to put yall at ease, northern folks, you're ok so far 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 No major difference on the confluence. That is all I care about. Icon and NAM both moved that north a tick. Its gonna be a good run I think. NVM. Its an icy mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: GFS looks like a bowling ball at 72 Souther at 78 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Precip starts at around 1-2am. Vort continues to be just a bit more amp'd If it is souther and more amped, must be more confluence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Accums should come in just about the same...maybe just a hair drier DC has some temp issues...but just barely at around 15z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I deleted a norther post since ya'll are disagreeing - I think it may just be the dual precip maxima starting to show. But it is drier. Less thumpy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 One of my favorite products in assessing the potential for extreme events is the ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index (EFI). The link for the page is here: https://satable.ncep.noaa.gov/efi/. To read up on it more from the ECMWF, you can visit here: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FUG/Section+8.1.9+Extreme+Forecast+Index+-+EFI%2C+and+Shift+of+Tails+-+SOT. If you haven't seen it before, in quoting the ECMWF page, the EFI "compares the medium range ensemble forecast probability distribution of an event to the M-climate distribution for the chosen location, time of year and forecast lead time. The underlying assumption is that, if a forecast is anomalous or extreme with respect to the M-climate (re-forecast database over the past 20 years), the real weather is also likely to be anomalous or extreme compared to the real climate. Simple probabilities derived from the ensemble (e.g. the probability that forecast temperature >32°C) do not highlight the differences in the distributions of forecast. However, EFI will do so because it accounts for the distribution of all the ensemble members. EFI takes values between +1 and -1. Experience suggests: EFI values between 0.5 to 0.8 (irrespective of sign) can be generally regarded as signifying that ““unusual”” weather is likely, EFI values above 0.8 (irrespective of sign) as usually signifying that ““very unusual”” or extreme weather is likely. " In this case using the new 12Z ECMWF EFI, maybe it is because it's been so long, but we do have some >0.8 values in northern VA that I can't recall seeing before (granted this product is still fairly new). Note as well is the Shift of Tails area. The Shift of Tails according to ECMWF "...compares the tails of both distributions of M-climate and ensemble based on the 90th and 99th (upper tail) percentiles...The SOT index complements EFI by providing information about how extreme an event could potentially be. Specifically, it compares the tails of the ensemble and M-climate distributions." Usually, my eyebrows rise some when we have a ~0.7 and >1 SoT look. We have a >0.8 and even a 5 SoT in Northern VA. This tool can be used to show the event that the ECMWF ENS distribution suggests a very unusual snow event is likely based off the 20-year running climo, but some of the members are on the more extreme side given the higher SoT. 12 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 I mean...there really are no huge differences right now. DC metro got a hair warmer so, as we know our climo, we flirt. But all in all...nothing panic inducing imo Tried to get a lil coastal going also. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, stormtracker said: I mean...there really are no huge differences right now. DC metro got a hair warmer so, as we know our climo, we flirt. But all in all...nothing panic inducing imo Tried to get a lil coastal going also. It's not a bad run, no one panic. It's a little more amped at h5 and low is a hair stronger, which draws in a bit more ML warmth with that angle of approach. Reality is, the 2m temp 32 line is actually a bit more S. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 A general 6-10 on my shit maps. Hanover PA does well. Hope that cuts the norther/drier debate from some guy up that way. 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I mean...there really are no huge differences right now. DC metro got a hair warmer so, as we know our climo, we flirt. But all in all...nothing panic inducing imo Tried to get a lil coastal going also. The coastal does a great deal for the subforum - would love to see that feature continue to improve 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Somebody is gonna get dry slotted when it tries to jump. Just the way it goes. Hopefully we all have 6 inches on the ground before that happens. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, stormtracker said: A general 6-10 on my shit maps. Hanover PA does well. Hope that cuts the norther/drier debate from some guy up that way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Precip hangs on till 9z Tuesday. Is that some kinda coastal enhancement N trof type deal mets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: The coastal does a great deal for the subforum - would love to see that feature continue to improve Yes, hour 102-105 are nice for a lot of us with the enhancement. Look at the mid level passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Uh, alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: The coastal does a great deal for the subforum - would love to see that feature continue to improve That's because of this vort at 96. It opens up 6 hours later, but still vigorous. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Close but that warm nose upstairs has been persistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Uh, alright. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 DE gets hammered from the coastal. Possible beach trip this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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