NorthArlington101 Posted Thursday at 09:36 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:36 PM 4 minutes ago, snowfan said: Quality. ok - yes the icon sucks, but TT only shows rain/snow. Pivotal has the rain/snow/ice/sleet maps. There are good and bad reasons to trash a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Thursday at 09:36 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:36 PM Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I would like to see it please. For DC: 6 inch snowfall mean. 6 inch median. I mean, it looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Thursday at 09:36 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:36 PM 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I would like to see it please. No one is hiding it because they were bad - they were good! 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Thursday at 09:38 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:38 PM 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: No one is hiding it because they were bad - they were good! It supports NBM well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Thursday at 09:38 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:38 PM 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: No one is hiding it because they were bad - they were good! It's usually a good sign when the median and mean are basically the exact same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Thursday at 09:39 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:39 PM 7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Do I always have to be the one to request data when a run goes bad? Not a peep about the 12z eps... I commented earlier. The same as 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Thursday at 09:39 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:39 PM 2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: doesn't seem like it's picking up any CAD signal. We know how strong that can be in these parts. Actually, it kinda-sorta is in a way. Looking at that 2-m temperature plot @snowfan showed above, you can see the signature. So I'd guess that "rain" in the corresponding plot would actually be sleet/freezing rain (the ICON plots for some reason don't show a different color for freezing precip, it's all greens). But yeah, why parse and stress the thermals of that model right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted Thursday at 09:39 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:39 PM ok - yes the icon sucks, but TT only shows rain/snow. Pivotal has the rain/snow/ice/sleet maps. There are good and bad reasons to trash a model.Great point. As depicted, that would be a nasty ice storm for dc metro. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Thursday at 09:41 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:41 PM 6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I would like to see it please. I'm only assuming it was bad since nobody posted it. I can't show that, not allowed. But I can tell you it looks great for DC metro. haha , ninja'ed by NorthArlington101 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Thursday at 09:41 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:41 PM Buckle in folks, 18z gfs is rollin in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 09:42 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 09:42 PM The most important GFS run until the next GFS run. Rolling in now... 10 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Thursday at 09:42 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:42 PM 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: I can't show that, not allowed. But I can tell you it looks great for DC metro. Someone beat you to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 09:46 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 09:46 PM Kinda weird glitch on my GFS. SFC map coming out way faster than H5. If this keeps up, just gonna have to eyeball the SFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 09:47 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 09:47 PM So far, no significant changes...im at 51 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 09:51 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 09:51 PM No remarkable changes at this time. Looks like 12z..I'm up to 69hr 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted Thursday at 09:51 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:51 PM Just now, J.Mike said: Where is Ji’s “the most important run of my life” post? Mappy moved it to banter. Lol In all seriousness, the track appears to be pretty much set within tight goalposts at this point. Now it is thermals and soundings that are most important to those south of the mason-dixon line. Stinks to be worried about thermals (especially down here) in our epic cold pattern, but it what it is. Rooting for a Ukie/Euro blend here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 09:53 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 09:53 PM Precip panels starting to come into view for our area...it's early, but orientation is shifted every so barely souther 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 09:54 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 09:54 PM h5 panels caught up. Vort is a bit more amp'd vs 12z. Money shots about to come into view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Thursday at 09:56 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:56 PM Fyi, precip panels from Icon ensembles. Look at the precip in PA vs DC/BWI. Operational Icon on crack. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Thursday at 09:57 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:57 PM GFS looks like a bowling ball at 72 Souther at 78 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 09:57 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 09:57 PM Precip starts at around 1-2am. Vort continues to be just a bit more amp'd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 09:58 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 09:58 PM Just to put yall at ease, northern folks, you're ok so far 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Thursday at 09:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:58 PM No major difference on the confluence. That is all I care about. Icon and NAM both moved that north a tick. Its gonna be a good run I think. NVM. Its an icy mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted Thursday at 09:59 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:59 PM 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: GFS looks like a bowling ball at 72 Souther at 78 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Precip starts at around 1-2am. Vort continues to be just a bit more amp'd If it is souther and more amped, must be more confluence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 10:00 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 10:00 PM Accums should come in just about the same...maybe just a hair drier DC has some temp issues...but just barely at around 15z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Thursday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:00 PM I deleted a norther post since ya'll are disagreeing - I think it may just be the dual precip maxima starting to show. But it is drier. Less thumpy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted Thursday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:00 PM One of my favorite products in assessing the potential for extreme events is the ECMWF's Extreme Forecast Index (EFI). The link for the page is here: https://satable.ncep.noaa.gov/efi/. To read up on it more from the ECMWF, you can visit here: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FUG/Section+8.1.9+Extreme+Forecast+Index+-+EFI%2C+and+Shift+of+Tails+-+SOT. If you haven't seen it before, in quoting the ECMWF page, the EFI "compares the medium range ensemble forecast probability distribution of an event to the M-climate distribution for the chosen location, time of year and forecast lead time. The underlying assumption is that, if a forecast is anomalous or extreme with respect to the M-climate (re-forecast database over the past 20 years), the real weather is also likely to be anomalous or extreme compared to the real climate. Simple probabilities derived from the ensemble (e.g. the probability that forecast temperature >32°C) do not highlight the differences in the distributions of forecast. However, EFI will do so because it accounts for the distribution of all the ensemble members. EFI takes values between +1 and -1. Experience suggests: EFI values between 0.5 to 0.8 (irrespective of sign) can be generally regarded as signifying that ““unusual”” weather is likely, EFI values above 0.8 (irrespective of sign) as usually signifying that ““very unusual”” or extreme weather is likely. " In this case using the new 12Z ECMWF EFI, maybe it is because it's been so long, but we do have some >0.8 values in northern VA that I can't recall seeing before (granted this product is still fairly new). Note as well is the Shift of Tails area. The Shift of Tails according to ECMWF "...compares the tails of both distributions of M-climate and ensemble based on the 90th and 99th (upper tail) percentiles...The SOT index complements EFI by providing information about how extreme an event could potentially be. Specifically, it compares the tails of the ensemble and M-climate distributions." Usually, my eyebrows rise some when we have a ~0.7 and >1 SoT look. We have a >0.8 and even a 5 SoT in Northern VA. This tool can be used to show the event that the ECMWF ENS distribution suggests a very unusual snow event is likely based off the 20-year running climo, but some of the members are on the more extreme side given the higher SoT. 12 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 10:01 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 10:01 PM I mean...there really are no huge differences right now. DC metro got a hair warmer so, as we know our climo, we flirt. But all in all...nothing panic inducing imo Tried to get a lil coastal going also. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Thursday at 10:02 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:02 PM Just now, stormtracker said: I mean...there really are no huge differences right now. DC metro got a hair warmer so, as we know our climo, we flirt. But all in all...nothing panic inducing imo Tried to get a lil coastal going also. It's not a bad run, no one panic. It's a little more amped at h5 and low is a hair stronger, which draws in a bit more ML warmth with that angle of approach. Reality is, the 2m temp 32 line is actually a bit more S. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Thursday at 10:02 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 10:02 PM A general 6-10 on my shit maps. Hanover PA does well. Hope that cuts the norther/drier debate from some guy up that way. 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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