Solution Man Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Lol Nam is like a bonafide cold front crossing down this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I don’t by the 12k NAM basically removing all of the WAA thump that’s on practically every other model, including the 3k. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 3k is the one to care about soon I know its the NAMs at range but should NOVA be worried about the weird dry slot it shows with the WAA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 More consistent then the euro in terms of the precip. 3k is not that different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: I know its the NAMs at range but should NOVA be worried about the weird dry slot it shows with the WAA? We've been screwed like this in the past... Hope it's not onto something 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Ravens94 said: More consistent then the euro. Curious what does this model give you vs the Euro? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I wouldn’t freak about the NAM. It’s still the NAM and out of range and 3K is the good NAM anyway. That’s the one to focus on as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, peribonca said: We've been screwed like this in the past... Hope it's not onto something Yeah, kinda hard to take it too seriously though when all the good global models do not show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 First law of 12k NAM: if it's showing a lot of snow, believe in the power of being NAM'd Second law of 12k NAM: if it's showing not enough snow, it's dead wrong and a booty cheeks model 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3K NAM at the end of its run. Should be a bit more to come with nice ratios. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, peribonca said: We've been screwed like this in the past... Hope it's not onto something either way it still gets us to 7ish inches by the end of its run with at least 2-6 more with the coastal fluff so not even a bad run verbatim, but is a little worrying if it nudges any further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Curious what does this model give you vs the Euro? Does it matter? I said it's consistent I'd say the same thing weather it was here or not. GFS is also been pretty rock solid while the euro has been moving 30 miles a run back to where it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: either way it still gets us to 7ish inches by the end of its run with at least 2-6 more with the coastal fluff so not even a bad run verbatim, but is a little worrying if it nudges any further north Agree 100%, but if anything, it nudged a little bit south vs. 6Z (talking about the 12k). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Lock in that 3k right now. The trajectory of the ULL snows looks great for the entire forum. Turns a 6-8+ storm into an areawide 8-12. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, StormyClearweather said: Agree 100%, but if anything, it nudged a little bit south vs. 6Z (talking about the 12k). Yeah I saw that on the above loop of the 12km...it's actually shifted south vs. 06Z. Question..did the 3km NAM depict the same extreme dry-slot that is visible on the 12km? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, LP08 said: I don’t by the 12k NAM basically removing all of the WAA thump that’s on practically every other model, including the 3k. Yeah, hard to take that depiction seriously when the 3k differs + every other model as well. Unless the (better) models show the same thing, that scenario seems unlikely right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Yeah I saw that on the above loop of the 12km...it's actually shifted south vs. 06Z. Question..did the 3km NAM depict the same extreme dry-slot that is visible on the 12km? It doesn't look that way to me. Just a break between the initial wave and the back-end stuff. Sorry for small size - file size limitations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The 12k Nam is very jumpy for a high resolution short range model. It will probably Nam as at 18zI’ve seen it often be wrong 6-12 hours before an event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Fv3 looks nice. 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Negnao said: Fv3 looks nice. Yes please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, StormyClearweather said: It doesn't look that way to me. Just a break between the initial wave and the back-end stuff. Sorry for small size - file size limitations. That actually looks pretty good for us but the Euro/GFS/CMC have that initial overrunning band WAY south of the NAMs, so I have to go with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Negnao said: Fv3 looks nice. And with a bit more to come, it appears. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I know it’s the FV3 but here it is 12z run. These totals are all from the thump, with some wraparound to still get through after the run. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: It doesn't look that way to me. Just a break between the initial wave and the back-end stuff. Sorry for small size - file size limitations. Thanks...yeah that's a different progression for sure, more similar to what the main globals have shown (and I totally get the file size limitations!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Negnao said: Fv3 looks nice. All snow for dc, and barely any sleet north of EZF. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, snowdude said: I know it’s the FV3 but here it is 12z run. These totals are all from the thump, with some wraparound to still get through after the run. Inferring from your comment that you don't love the FV3? I don't follow it much, so genuine question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, snowdude said: I know it’s the FV3 but here it is 12z run. These totals are all from the thump, with some wraparound to still get through after the run. Where do I sign? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 hours ago, stormtracker said: Euro moved north by about 40 mi with the heaviest stuff I guess we are looking at different parts of the stripe it is laying down, but the Euro has depicted the heaviest snow right over Augusta County for at least 6 runs in a row now. If anything, the heaviest part of the stripe out west here has moved a tick south in the past two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Like i said yesterday. I’d pay attention to the 3k NAM thermals once its track matches the global model consensus. Probably 18z or 0z. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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