Ji Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The 12k Nam is very jumpy for a high resolution short range model. It will probably Nam as at 18zI’ve seen it often be wrong 6-12 hours before an event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Fv3 looks nice. 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Negnao said: Fv3 looks nice. Yes please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, StormyClearweather said: It doesn't look that way to me. Just a break between the initial wave and the back-end stuff. Sorry for small size - file size limitations. That actually looks pretty good for us but the Euro/GFS/CMC have that initial overrunning band WAY south of the NAMs, so I have to go with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Negnao said: Fv3 looks nice. And with a bit more to come, it appears. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I know it’s the FV3 but here it is 12z run. These totals are all from the thump, with some wraparound to still get through after the run. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: It doesn't look that way to me. Just a break between the initial wave and the back-end stuff. Sorry for small size - file size limitations. Thanks...yeah that's a different progression for sure, more similar to what the main globals have shown (and I totally get the file size limitations!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Negnao said: Fv3 looks nice. All snow for dc, and barely any sleet north of EZF. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, snowdude said: I know it’s the FV3 but here it is 12z run. These totals are all from the thump, with some wraparound to still get through after the run. Inferring from your comment that you don't love the FV3? I don't follow it much, so genuine question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, snowdude said: I know it’s the FV3 but here it is 12z run. These totals are all from the thump, with some wraparound to still get through after the run. Where do I sign? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 hours ago, stormtracker said: Euro moved north by about 40 mi with the heaviest stuff I guess we are looking at different parts of the stripe it is laying down, but the Euro has depicted the heaviest snow right over Augusta County for at least 6 runs in a row now. If anything, the heaviest part of the stripe out west here has moved a tick south in the past two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Like i said yesterday. I’d pay attention to the 3k NAM thermals once its track matches the global model consensus. Probably 18z or 0z. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Heavy snow knocking on the door of DC metro at 06z MON on 12z ICON 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 ICON is not going to be like the 12k NAM with the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 ICON not joining the party.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Less confluence every run is a tick to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Ravens94 said: Less confluence Also a little faster, noticed some of the overnight runs were quicker with the low and start time again after slowing down quite a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 DC metro is all snow on 12z ICON through 18z MON 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12z RGEM also nothing like 12z NAM... is a hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Less confluence every run is a tick to the north Soooner or later the Euro will be doing that (in a more pronounced matter) and then we can all be happy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I forget was the ICON the furthest south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 13 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Inferring from your comment that you don't love the FV3? I don't follow it much, so genuine question. Yeah I don’t use it a lot but it is a branch of the GFS I believe. I don’t think it’s horrible, just still a “fairly new” model. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I'm really hating the NAMs right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, aldie 22 said: I forget was the ICON the furthest south? UKIE is. 12z ICON did move its snow totals south this run though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 36 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Appears the 'claw' (or jaws) has returned, just turned slightly E-W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 19 minutes ago, Negnao said: Fv3 looks nice. Wouldn't put much stock into QPF from any high-res fv3 models. IIRC, it has serious problems with that on the convective scales 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12z ICON moved its heaviest snow totals out of MD... DC near 6" with Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, yoda said: UKIE is. 12z ICON did move its snow totals south this run though I think it's more that it tightened up the QPF a bit than really moved. Although I guess it's really just noise (just not the kind we like). And fortunately, it's the ickycon, so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z ICON moved its heaviest snow totals out of MD... DC near 6" with Kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, wxdude64 said: Appears the 'claw' has returned, just turned slightly E-W Yes it has, luckily it’s out of the NAM so called or alleged wheelhouse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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