psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 12:45 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:45 PM EPS trend 16 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Saturday at 12:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:48 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: EPS trend Your theory is holding water so far, with DC near jackpot zone and 48 hours to go. Creep North my friend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Saturday at 12:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:49 PM 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS trend Post the Dr evil again lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 12:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:49 PM 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: In your opinion, what makes more sense given climo and setup: GFS or Euro? Snippet from WPC Heavy snow disco this morning- Over the past few days models have converged on a stronger and slightly north solution regarding the initial placement of this upper low, with still some differences regarding it's track and ability to maintain strength as it moves eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Downstream confluence is quite strong and limits to what extent the precipitation shield can lift north. The GFS/GEFS remains alone in a stronger solution which leads to more potent WAA and a farther north heavy snow axis, as well as mixing issues spanning farther north than most other guidance. The answer likely lies somewhere in between, but may be closer to the ECMWF suite given latest trends. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 12:50 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:50 PM 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS trend About time it turned around meaningfully. I said the other day that the shortwave wouldn't hit the nw Pac coast until 6z Saturday and to expect a honing in at that point. No excuses from now on. Hopefully, 12z follows the 6z trend across all the models. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 12:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:51 PM Euro will likely tick north a bit more over the next few model cycles, or at least expand the precip shield in that direction. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Saturday at 12:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:51 PM 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: In your opinion, what makes more sense given climo and setup: GFS or Euro? I think max snow between 495 and @mitchnickland. DC doesn’t max out because they ping for a bit Monday and because it’s DC. Just my 2C. 5 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Saturday at 12:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:51 PM I still think nrn MD is the jack zone for now although I realize some of the guidance is south. Just going by how these trend and mid level features. We’ll see what 12z does. Either way a solid hit in the DC-BWI metro for sure. There will be a narrow area of 12+ I think. 14 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted Saturday at 12:53 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:53 PM I know everyone focuses on the Jack stripe but overall forum wise a lot of people will get a good snow out of this. Euro ticked N as expected, GFS corrected a little south and our maple leaf friends are right there with us. Hard to argue with 3 models agreeing and the JVs close too 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 12:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:54 PM 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS trend I like that bump north!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Saturday at 12:56 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:56 PM 1 minute ago, H2O said: I know everyone focuses on the Jack stripe but overall forum wise a lot of people will get a good snow out of this. Euro ticked N as expected, GFS corrected a little south and our maple leaf friends are right there with us. Hard to argue with 3 models agreeing and the JVs close too For sure this is probably the most forum-wide (likely) warning level event since…2016?? Farthest south LWX counties and areas around RIC would be ones I personally am not sure about warning level snow, but probably warning level wintry conditions with snow+ice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 12:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:58 PM 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: For sure this is probably the most forum-wide (likely) warning level event since…2016?? Farthest south LWX counties and areas around RIC would be ones I personally am not sure about warning level snow, but probably warning level wintry conditions with snow+ice. Yep will be my biggest event since the blizzard of 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Saturday at 01:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:00 PM Can't say enough how great it is have legit cold settle in 48 hours before knowing every flake counts. 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Saturday at 01:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:00 PM 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: For sure this is probably the most forum-wide (likely) warning level event since…2016?? Farthest south LWX counties and areas around RIC would be ones I personally am not sure about warning level snow, but probably warning level wintry conditions with snow+ice. Yep. I think EZF definitely flips, DC SE pings a bit, but north of 50 should stay all snow, with the usual max lining up along and just south of i-70, and maybe even a secondary max little north of that due to higher ratios. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Saturday at 01:03 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:03 PM Ignoring the numbers and only looking at the max stripe - I would tick that a bit north maybe by about 20 miles but all should do well. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Saturday at 01:04 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:04 PM Having the 3k being just cold enough upstairs now for mostly snow is good to have for us close in to the immediate burbs. 5”+ looks like a good bet for most the forum. glad we won’t be sweating 42/31 as precip arrives for once. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Saturday at 01:06 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:06 PM 43 minutes ago, yoda said: This map makes no sense. Their color use doesn't even match their own scale and the numbers they've assigned. Laplata vs annapolis? Be better, NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Saturday at 01:07 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:07 PM Just now, IronTy said: This map makes no sense. Their color use doesn't even match their own scale and the numbers they've assigned. Laplata vs annapolis? Be better, NWS. 3-8” lol woof 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Saturday at 01:08 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:08 PM Nice thing about this for you guys is that the snow will stay. Good timing for this. Big win. 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted Saturday at 01:08 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:08 PM DC with greater than a 50% chance of 8”+ 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Saturday at 01:12 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:12 PM 11 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Can't say enough how great it is have legit cold settle in 48 hours before knowing every flake counts. Amen to this. No looking out to wet pavement and dripping trees. And as @CoastalWx said, our best chance at having snowpack in a loooong while. 11 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yep. I think EZF definitely flips, DC SE pings a bit, but north of 50 should stay all snow, with the usual max lining up along and just south of i-70, and maybe even a secondary max little north of that due to higher ratios. Just south of 70 works for me 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Saturday at 01:13 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:13 PM 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nice thing about this for you guys is that the snow will stay. Good timing for this. Big win. Definitely. I have a snow on the ground fetish that need to be tickled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 01:13 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:13 PM 6 minutes ago, IronTy said: This map makes no sense. Their color use doesn't even match their own scale and the numbers they've assigned. Laplata vs annapolis? Be better, NWS. It changes every model run its computerized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted Saturday at 01:14 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:14 PM 13 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Can't say enough how great it is have legit cold settle in 48 hours before knowing every flake counts. 100% - it is cold AF this morning with the wind too. Ground already white from yesterday. Not going to see green grass for a while now. Snow on snow coming and it’s going to stick around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Saturday at 01:14 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:14 PM Just now, winter_warlock said: It changes every model run its computerized Then somebody needs to at least fix the colors so they actually match their predicted snow amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 01:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:15 PM Just now, IronTy said: Then somebody needs to at least fix the colors so they actually match their predicted snow amounts. I agree. That graphic is never accurate anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted Saturday at 01:16 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:16 PM 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yep. I think EZF definitely flips, DC SE pings a bit, but north of 50 should stay all snow, with the usual max lining up along and just south of i-70, and maybe even a secondary max little north of that due to higher ratios. Question. I know what happens just a little bit upstairs makes all the difference with sleet vs snow, but are we looking at a little bit different creature with this storm than most? What I mean is we have a really fresh dump of cold air where other storms are eroding or it’s a race for a backdoor front to come in before precip falls. How much benefit is a cold column all the way down prior to stem the mid level warming due to the WAA ? I’m generally curious what is causing the thermals to come up as much as modeled when it will be a colder storm than most times 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 01:16 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:16 PM 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nice thing about this for you guys is that the snow will stay. Good timing for this. Big win. You guys, and your location in particular, have been royally shafted. Hopefully, we can finally get a Miller A that hits us all. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Saturday at 01:16 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:16 PM 12 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Ignoring the numbers and only looking at the max stripe - I would tick that a bit north maybe by about 20 miles but all should do well. Nice work keeping Ashburn in the swath after the 20 mile shift north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Saturday at 01:19 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:19 PM Why is CWG posting about a warm Caribbean this morning? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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