nw baltimore wx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: lol yeah..66 was a super premature panel. But I get the excitement to be fast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 GFS blended with GEM and it’s a beaut - 8-12” would be amazing with the upcoming cold. Get used to white ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z Can. If this can be the southern goalpost, can definitely live with that. Will be interested to see which direction it ticks tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Tommy T on WBAL11 is hugging the GRAF model. 3-6 in MD, 6-9 DC south, 12" down near fredericksburg. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, yoda said: I believe @usedtobe likes Canada So do I. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: A 57 hour map for a storm that goes to 78 hours dude? I could clearly see a southward shift at 57, the later frames confirm it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 While we’re waiting, Can someone explain what caused the gfs to be slightly south of its 18z run? Was it confluence or or a more southerly track or a weaker low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 This is reminding me of Jan 2022 quite a bit... up here towards Baltimore we got a little less overall but it was still 4-6" of cold smoke... I would take that again in a heartbeat even if that means DC gets more like 8+" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: If this can be the southern goalpost, can definitely live with that. Will be interested to see which direction it ticks tomorrow. There are no goalposts. In March 2014 48 hours out they were expecting a foot up in PA and it ended up hitting DC with almost nothing to the PA line. The last couple years there were storms that 48 out the jack was south of me and ended up way north! If the models are miscalculating how that lobe up to our north interacts with the system it could still get squashed to our south. It could also end up shifting so far north you end up south if the good snow! I don’t expect that but I’ve seen it and there is no super crazy high to prevent it just that 50/50 And the lobe rotating around it and if that were to get out of the way… My point is you seem to be searching for a degree of certainty and there is none. Just have to accept that and hope for the best. 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There are no goalposts. In March 2014 48 hours out they were expecting a foot up in PA and it ended up hitting DC with almost nothing to the PA line. The last couple years there were storms that 48 out the jack was south of me and ended up way north! If the models are miscalculating how that lobe up to our north interacts with the system it could still get squashed to our south. It could also end up shifting so far north you end up south if the good snow! I don’t expect that but I’ve seen it and there is no super crazy high to prevent it just that 50/50 And the lobe rotating around it and if that were to get out of the way… My point is you seem to be searching for a degree of certainty and there is none. Just have to accept that and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The trade winds are the southernmost extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, bncho said: If you want some certainity on this storm, I can tell you this: The goal posts stretch from Florida to Maine and I know all of us will get somewhere between 0-24 inches. You must write for CWG... 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 00Z GFS ensembles look good, a bit south. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There are no goalposts. In March 2014 48 hours out they were expecting a foot up in PA and it ended up hitting DC with almost nothing to the PA line. The last couple years there were storms that 48 out the jack was south of me and ended up way north! If the models are miscalculating how that lobe up to our north interacts with the system it could still get squashed to our south. It could also end up shifting so far north you end up south if the good snow! I don’t expect that but I’ve seen it and there is no super crazy high to prevent it just that 50/50 And the lobe rotating around it and if that were to get out of the way… My point is you seem to be searching for a degree of certainty and there is none. Just have to accept that and hope for the best. I agree. No blocking high to the north. Only the 50/50. Hope for the best everyone. Goodnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 00Z GFS ensembles look good, a bit south. Looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 UKIE is a nice run. Precip max still south of town. But it juiced up this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 00z Ukie 3 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 UKmet looks pretty similar to 12z everywhere. Just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: UKIE is a nice run. Precip max still south of town. But it juiced up this run. It looks like less QPF to me, vs 12z. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: It looks like less QPF for me, vs 12z. Am I missing something? Yeah. I was looking at 18Z which was only through 66. DOH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: It looks like less QPF for me, vs 12z. Am I missing something? Up north yes. It's drier. South of DC juiced up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Up north yes. It's drier. South of DC juiced up. Yeah you’re right - I was focusing on the edges. Decent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 WB 3Z NBM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I did my part… 8 1 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Ukmet is what it is. I'm fine with it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I did my part… Brillant lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I did my part… Manifestation. I love it. Now for sure we can get 8-12" areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I did my part… Oh my goodness, lolol Folks this is a phenomenon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 FWIW... and the "heaviest snowfall region" did move north compared to its 12z position btw 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 33 minutes ago, mdhokie said: Tommy T on WBAL11 is hugging the GRAF model. 3-6 in MD, 6-9 DC south, 12" down near fredericksburg. 3 to 6 in md? That seems kinda low when u factor al the models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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