Warm Nose Posted Saturday at 02:46 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:46 AM The past couple years this is the point at which we'd throw in the towel. Not the case for this one ... ...yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 02:47 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:47 AM Fv3 was about to beat us like a red headed step child 8 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Saturday at 02:48 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:48 AM NAM is pretty sweet for those of us north. Solid .7-.8” qpf, no mix/dry slot issues. Just pure cold snow. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Saturday at 02:49 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:49 AM 3k is way better out here for my area. I think its a 6-10 storm for just about all of us. Nothing to complain about. And its going to be here for a long while as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Saturday at 02:49 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:49 AM 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: No more north nudges. Please. Something tells me we won't have to worry about that for our yards. Seems like this is the good goal post now with the euro being the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Saturday at 02:49 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:49 AM 2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Fv3 is like the high res GFS if I remember. Looks great too And I thought the FV3 was the new GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Saturday at 02:50 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:50 AM 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Does anyone know why ncep never developed a high res version of the GFS similar to the Rgem and high res euro (not sure of they discontinued that when the euro op went high res). I believe the GFS runs on the FV3 core and is fairly hi-res compared to what it used to be. RGEM runs at a resolution similar to the NAM with the HRDPS the Canadian version of the hi-res 2.5km, although it has some significant issues with a multitude of parameters. This is a great question for the MDL people since they have more of the background. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted Saturday at 02:50 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:50 AM 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Fv3 was about to beat us like a red headed step child I noticed that too. Looks real good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Saturday at 02:50 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:50 AM 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Fv3 was about to beat us like a red headed step child I know it means nothing, but it makes me feel good, so I'm going to say it - FV3 nailed today's "event" for NoVa, at least. Even showed the two rounds we wound up getting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 02:50 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:50 AM 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: I thought the NAM was a high result ion GFS? No the NAM was never aligned to the gfs the same way the high res euro and rgem are to their parent globals. You don’t see the rgem diverge from the gem much for example. You see the NAM off on a crazy tangent from the gfs often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Saturday at 02:51 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:51 AM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Saturday at 02:52 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:52 AM 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: I believe the GFS runs on the FV3 core and is fairly hi-res compared to what it used to be. RGEM runs at a resolution similar to the NAM with the HRDPS the Canadian version of the hi-res 2.5km, although it has some significant issues with a multitude of parameters. This is a great question for the MDL people since they have more of the background. It's really an EMC question, but you nailed it. The HiResW FV3 can in some ways be considered a hi-res GFS, but the GFS has been tuned a fair amount in recent years, with none of those upgrades making it into the HiResW FV3. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Saturday at 02:53 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:53 AM 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I believe the GFS runs on the FV3 core and is fairly hi-res compared to what it used to be. RGEM runs at a resolution similar to the NAM with the HRDPS the Canadian version of the hi-res 2.5km, although it has some significant issues with a multitude of parameters. This is a great question for the MDL people since they have more of the background. Pagin @das or @dtk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Saturday at 02:53 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:53 AM FV3 at the end of the run, so take it for what it's worth, but considering the antecedent airmass and wet bulb temps, there's a good possibility many of us are snowing early Monday morning between 22-26F with DCA probably reporting 28-29. In any case, surface temps look really solid to stay at or below freezing for many in here. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Saturday at 02:57 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:57 AM 2 minutes ago, high risk said: It's really an EMC question, but you nailed it. The HiResW FV3 can in some ways be considered a hi-res GFS, but the GFS has been tuned a fair amount in recent years, with none of those upgrades making it into the HiResW FV3. Ah yes, EMC! I keep forgetting about them. They are literally two floors down, but they just go about their business and are quite reserved. Super knowledgeable people down there at NCWCP. Appreciate the response 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted Saturday at 02:58 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:58 AM 47 minutes ago, IronTy said: Damn, guess KC is gonna be jack for this storm. We had our chance, I guess. Maybe next time. ETA - he's probably got some insider contacts at both the euro and GFS. Already knows what's gonna happen for the 00Z runs. Keep an eye on his whereabouts for the tell. Natural gas futures traders hate this one trick... Cantore is typically the kiss of death… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Saturday at 02:58 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:58 AM 10 minutes ago, mappy said: NAM is pretty sweet for those of us north. Solid .7-.8” qpf, no mix/dry slot issues. Just pure cold snow. Down here in AA County we like to ride the line. Big QPF and big snowflakes. If we don't ping, we bling. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted Saturday at 03:01 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:01 AM 1 minute ago, dailylurker said: Down here in AA County we like to ride the line. Big QPF and big snowflakes. If we don't ping, we bling. Go big or go home. Us ‘Napolis folk know about riding the line. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Saturday at 03:01 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:01 AM Just now, dailylurker said: Down here in AA County we like to ride the the line. Big QPF and big snowflakes. If we don't ping, we bling. Cautiously optimistic for us lowlanders. Edgewater/Annapolis is consistently on the northern fringe of the IP line. One thing I do love seeing is consistency on the CCB pull through for here. If that materializes....we will get raked before the storm bids, "Au Revoir!" on its way out. One of the reasons we see the 2-4" uptick for Eastern AA Co. Fingers crossed! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Saturday at 03:01 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:01 AM Baltimore jack on NAM wowza 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted Saturday at 03:02 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:02 AM 15 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I thought the NAM was a high result ion GFS? Don’t ever say this again. I said the same thing about 8 years ago and was chastised to oblivion. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted Saturday at 03:03 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:03 AM Just now, MillvilleWx said: Cautiously optimistic for us lowlanders. Edgewater/Annapolis is consistently on the northern fringe of the IP line. One thing I do love seeing is consistency on the CCB pull through for here. If that materializes....we will get raked before the storm bids, "Au Revoir!" on its way out. One of the reasons we see the 2-4" uptick for Eastern AA Co. Fingers crossed! I love your optimism! Us Capers have a little more latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Saturday at 03:03 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:03 AM 2 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Down here in AA County we like to ride the line. Big QPF and big snowflakes. If we don't ping, we bling. I know, grew up there haha. North has its benefits 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Saturday at 03:03 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:03 AM 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Baltimore jack on NAM wowza Yessir 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Saturday at 03:03 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:03 AM I’m off work on Monday. May stay down at my brothers in HoCo rather than up here in Carroll County for an easier commute to work on Tuesday (and in hopes of seeing a bit more snow honestly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Saturday at 03:05 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:05 AM 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Cautiously optimistic for us lowlanders. Edgewater/Annapolis is consistently on the northern fringe of the IP line. One thing I do love seeing is consistency on the CCB pull through for here. If that materializes....we will get raked before the storm bids, "Au Revoir!" on its way out. One of the reasons we see the 2-4" uptick for Eastern AA Co. Fingers crossed! I thought you were in Frederick... when did you move to AA Co? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Saturday at 03:07 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:07 AM Just now, Interstate said: I thought you were in Frederick... when did you move to AA Co? Back over the summer. Bit closer to work and a little better living arrangement (Personal stuff). Wife and I might be settling in Northern AA or out by Mt Airy in 2026. That's the goal. Financially will be considerably better by then with student loans and car payments all paid off. Amazing how much money that will open up. Btw, I grew up less than 12 min from you. Carney/Cub Hill area. I lived off Northwind and Harford Rd. Loved that area. Was a neat little microclimate outside the Beltway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Saturday at 03:08 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:08 AM Just now, MillvilleWx said: Back over the summer. Bit closer to work and a little better living arrangement (Personal stuff). Wife and I might be settling in Northern AA or out by Mt Airy in 2026. That's the goal. Financially will be considerably better by then with student loans and car payments all paid off. Amazing how much money that will open up. Btw, I grew up less than 12 min from you. Carney/Cub Hill area. I lived off Northwind and Harford Rd. Loved that area. Was a neat little microclimate outside the Beltway. I know that Area well... I drove by the Soda Pop Shop today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Saturday at 03:09 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:09 AM Rgem is euro south, lol I hate these models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Saturday at 03:09 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:09 AM RGEM is a smidge south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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