Warm Nose Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Not a cutter/App runner Not waiting for the cold QPF not an issue A little perspective goes a long way 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 18Z EPS snow mean almost exactly the same as 12z. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 15 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Probably gonna be rain in Georgetown unfortunately man thats a deep cut. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, hstorm said: This may be the best post of the thread (for anyone who remembers last year( Oh I ‘member. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: 18Z EPS snow mean almost exactly the same as 12z. If it were the GFS south and Euro north, there would be little debate or uncertainty on how this is going to evolve. But it’s really hard to bet against the Euro 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: Still putting my jackpot in the general latitude of Leesburg to germantown to Columbia to Easton for now. Will see how things look by tomorrow 0z but I don’t buy the dc south jack quite yet. Euro has been known to lose things 48 out to get them back closer to game time. Can’t shake the general climo aspect to this storm, especially early on in a cold pattern. Euro is pretty clearly a bit too far south given the synoptic setup, imo. That said, I don't think the GFS evolution is the final answer either. More fun to come. Most likely some sort of a compromise, which should make most folks here happy. 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Euro is pretty clearly a bit too far south given the synoptic setup, imo. That said, I don't think the GFS evolution is the final answer either. More fun to come. Most likely some sort of a compromise, which should make most folks here happy.Agreed. Been beating this notion like a dead horse as of late but a split of the euro / gfs seems most likely, which is 6+ for most of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 30 minutes ago, CAPE said: One tick further north and the Euro is perfect. Nothing wonky about it. Just bring that FGEN band north a tad. That 16 in SBY could so easily be in my yard. sorry @Lowershoresadness no worries, just keep it on the shore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Euro is pretty clearly a bit too far south given the synoptic setup, imo. That said, I don't think the GFS evolution is the final answer either. More fun to come. Most likely some sort of a compromise, which should make most folks here happy. Just think how many forecasts would bust if we only had one without the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: no worries, just keep it on the shore You're getting 8"+ I promise 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: You're getting 8"+ I promise Jan 25th 1987 is calling us 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I still cannot believe south of 64 still has an outside chance for a significant snowfall. I feel like the gfs actually took a step toward the euro and Ukie. I’m fully expecting ice but would be a nice surprise if we could thump out of the gate before thermals get warm upstairs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I still cannot believe south of 64 still has an outside chance for a significant snowfall. I feel like the gfs actually took a step toward the euro and Ukie. I’m fully expecting ice but would be a nice surprise if we could thump out of the gate before thermals get warm upstairs. I hope everyone from Salem to Richmond to DC & surrounding areas cash out. This is what we all need. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 10 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: Jan 25th 1987 is calling us Great storm! Easily top 10 for my time here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: Jan 25th 1987 is calling us I remember that, I was at 3557 Longview Ave in Woodbridge VA and we got 10 inches, after getting walloped by 14 on the 22nd. I was digging snow like a maniac. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Great storm! Easily top 10 for my time here. I'd take that storm in a hot minute 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 57 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Would love to look back on Tuesday and see which one had it right. So easy to say that - but - on Tuesday this show will be over and all eyes on next weekend's potential and we do it all over again! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 17 minutes ago, RVAman said: I hope everyone from Salem to Richmond to DC & surrounding areas cash out. This is what we all need. I’m hoping the same. It must be a tough forecast for our local Mets. I’m thinking we will do fairly well I have a good feeling this will overperform for us. The CAD west of the blueridge is always underestimated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 How reliable is the SREF ARW? WB 21Z 1 4 7 1 1 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 For those that still don't like the Srefs, I have even more bad news for you. And there's maybe .1" more snow in places on the latest run after the map I used here, but I had to use the 78hrs to compare with the 84hrs on the last run. The storm is a few hours slower, which alows it to expand the precip shield i.e. wetter in some locations. A few places may have been cut back, but those localized reductions will just have to be taken for the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Weather Will said: How reliable is the SREF ARW? WB 21Z That's just one of the Sref members used in the Srefs I posted. Obviously, the snowiest one! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 It's the trend that's most important with the Srefs at this point, and it is positive. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 How unusual is the track of this system with this nearly uniform west-to-east fetch of snow? Was the early Dec storm of 2013 similar to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 How reliable is the SREF ARW? WB 21ZI know it’s the SREF blend but this is what I have had in mind for days now. Makes the most sense to me based on setup and climo. We shall see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: It's the trend that's most important with the Srefs at this point, and it is positive. I will hug anything that shows a north trend at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 WB 21Z NBM, I know it is a blend of other previous runs.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 21Z NBM, I know it is a blend of other previous runs.... At least something other than the GFS is north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, bncho said: At least something other than the GFS is north. Like looking for someone to agree with you even though your closest and most reliable friends give you different advice. : D 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just watched JB. He favors a 50/50 blend of the GFS and Euro, is most interested in the height rises to the east of the euro in upcoming runs. Hope he's right as I think that would make the most of us happy. And puts me at ground zero, of course. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 8 minutes ago, bncho said: At least something other than the GFS is north. That’s cause it is a blend of the models. So the gfs and Nam are in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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