The January 5/6 Thing

[Weather Will]

Please this is not that serious....it is cold outside, does everyone have a roof and heat tonight on this forum?  That is the stuff to stress about. And this is not banter.  This is not life and death stuff.  It is supposed to be a fun hobby, not make you a nervous wreck.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, H2O said:

Small shifts like it just did are fine.  None of us want it to correct to Scranton tho.  Sorry PA people

Yeah that’s not happening. Webb still insisting PHL is gonna jack. We’ll see I guess. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Too many drinks at lunch?

Yeah.  Check the banter thread.  0z tonight will be telling

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah.  Check the banter thread.  0z tonight will be telling

I saw pics.

[snowfan]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm going to sober up and be sharp for 0z

I told you to lay off the Zimas. 

[Ravens94]

If Georgetown jacks we all do

[Deck Pic]

I'll see y'all later for the 0z euro, but one quick note for the whiny northerners

Based on that run alone, I'd go 6-10" for Manchester - Westminster.  Don't take the precip/snow maps too seriously.  We've been at this too long.  The best secondary banding is going to be north of DC.

[RDM]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm going to sober up and be sharp for 0z

Why?  I thought forecasting is like my German and Japanese.  The drunker I am the better I speak em.  The drunker you are the better your pbp.  Don't let up now! 

[Kevin Reilly]

5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Another thing i noticed is the confluence the NE is definitely a bit lessened on 18z euro h75 vs 12z. low also a bit stronger. I’d sort of expect a bit more north based on those 2 changes. 

To me isn’t this what the gfs and other models showing lobe up north moving further away.  I really have a tough time trusting 18z runs there not called off runs for nothing.  I’ll be patient until 0z to see real lasting changes or trends as I wave good bye to this little pesky storm stage right and get outta the way of the more important storm on Monday. 

[pazzo83]

3 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

If Georgetown jacks we all do

Probably gonna be rain in Georgetown unfortunately 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I'll see y'all later for the 0z euro, but one quick note for the whiny northerners

Based on that run alone, I'd go 6-10" for Manchester - Westminster.  Don't take the precip/snow maps too seriously.  We've been at this too long.  The best secondary banding is going to be north of DC.

That’s what I’m thinking too. Hopefully the southern band will get us and run up the accums before any mixing or dry slot, then add a few more on the backend. 

[snjókoma]

Feels like the bottom 10% scenario for DC is like 3-4" of snow and sleet and then a whiff on the coastal stuff, so basically GFS round 1 without GFS round 2. Which honestly is not a bad floor!

[csnavywx]

Really comes down to who is handling the H5/H7 features better here. GFS opens the upper low later than the EC and as a result has a more coherent WCB and warm nose, which ends up causing p-type issues but makes up for it somewhat with a stronger backside as the H5/7 vort maxes slide just south. The tracks and timing are otherwise basically the same. Either way, there should be some banding along/just left of the mid-level vort maxes.

[Deck Pic]

Just now, Terpeast said:

That’s what I’m thinking too. Hopefully the southern band will get us and run up the accums before any mixing or dry slot, then add a few more on the backend. 

makes sense.

I'd probably go 5-8" for me. 6-10" for you.  But there will likely be a primary band with the WAA that nails EZF and then later on a band develops say Germantown up NW of baltimore.

I don't want to get ahead of myself, but this seems like a good event to go bullish on, vs the normal hedging because we suck at snow.

[Quasievil]

5 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Really comes down to who is handling the H5/H7 features better here. GFS opens the upper low later than the EC and as a result has a more coherent WCB and warm nose, which ends up causing p-type issues but makes up for it somewhat with a stronger backside as the H5/7 vort maxes slide just south. The tracks and timing are otherwise basically the same. Either way, there should be some banding along/just left of the mid-level vort maxes.

Would love to look back on Tuesday and see which one had it right.

[jayyy]

Still putting my jackpot in the general latitude of Leesburg to germantown to Columbia to Easton for now. Will see how things look by tomorrow 0z but I don’t buy the dc south jack quite yet. Euro has been known to lose things 48 out to get them back closer to game time. Can’t shake the general climo aspect to this storm, especially early on in a cold pattern.

[Deck Pic]

DC's average ratio is 11.5:1 per wes junker's research.  I haven't looked at snow growth yet, but if there are fat dendrites under the better bands, I don't see why some people can't get 14:1

[hstorm]

8 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Probably gonna be rain in Georgetown unfortunately 

This may be the best post of the thread (for anyone who remembers last year(

[Warm Nose]

• Not a cutter/App runner
• Not waiting for the cold
• QPF not an issue

A little perspective goes a long way

[CAPE]

18Z EPS snow mean almost exactly the same as 12z.

[biodhokie]

15 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Probably gonna be rain in Georgetown unfortunately 

man thats a deep cut.

[IUsedToHateCold]

4 minutes ago, hstorm said:

This may be the best post of the thread (for anyone who remembers last year(

Oh I ‘member.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

18Z EPS snow mean almost exactly the same as 12z.

If it were the GFS south and Euro north, there would be little debate or uncertainty on how this is going to evolve. But it’s really hard to bet against the Euro

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Still putting my jackpot in the general latitude of Leesburg to germantown to Columbia to Easton for now. Will see how things look by tomorrow 0z but I don’t buy the dc south jack quite yet. Euro has been known to lose things 48 out to get them back closer to game time. Can’t shake the general climo aspect to this storm, especially early on in a cold pattern.

Euro is pretty clearly a bit too far south given the synoptic setup, imo.

That said, I don't think the GFS evolution is the final answer either. More fun to come. Most likely some sort of a compromise, which should make most folks here happy.

[jayyy]

Euro is pretty clearly a bit too far south given the synoptic setup, imo.
That said, I don't think the GFS evolution is the final answer either. More fun to come. Most likely some sort of a compromise, which should make most folks here happy.

Agreed. Been beating this notion like a dead horse as of late but a split of the euro / gfs seems most likely, which is 6+ for most of us.

[Lowershoresadness]

30 minutes ago, CAPE said:

One tick further north and the Euro is perfect. Nothing wonky about it. Just bring that FGEN band north a tad. That 16 in SBY could so easily be in my yard.

sorry @Lowershoresadness

no worries, just keep it on the shore

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Euro is pretty clearly a bit too far south given the synoptic setup, imo.

That said, I don't think the GFS evolution is the final answer either. More fun to come. Most likely some sort of a compromise, which should make most folks here happy.

Just think how many forecasts would bust  if we only had one without the other.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

no worries, just keep it on the shore

You're getting 8"+

I promise 

[Lowershoresadness]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You're getting 8"+

I promise 

Jan 25th 1987 is calling us

[Buddy1987]

I still cannot believe south of 64 still has an outside chance for a significant snowfall. I feel like the gfs actually took a step toward the euro and Ukie. I’m fully expecting ice but would be a nice surprise if we could thump out of the gate before thermals get warm upstairs.