DDweatherman Posted Friday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:27 PM I hate to say; Randy’s pbp on the SV maps threw me off. This came north a bit on 18z euro I think. Heavier qpf definitely came north a bit. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Friday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:27 PM 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Out by 1am Tuesday. RIC 15+ DCA 6-8 Balt 4-6 Take this with a grain of salt. SV maps suck I cant wait to see DT's next map 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 11:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:28 PM 2 minutes ago, H2O said: Would love to see if there is a correction that it makes once mesos get into their wheelhouse. I'm still betting on a north shift for the euro tomorrow. Only basing on years of watching and not anything pattern wise for this storm. I said this morning that I figure a diabatically-driven north trend probably starts once the storm has developed. Given the slower trend across all guidance, that might not be until Sunday now. We’ll see. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted Friday at 11:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:28 PM 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I figure that will happen but euro being stubborn with this farther south solution since 0z last night. That 15" bullseye over Chester VA and the southern portion of the Del Marva seems a bit too suppressed. It never works out for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Friday at 11:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:28 PM 3 minutes ago, IronTy said: Did tick north with the heavy accums tho. This is a thing of beauty. Tomorrow we can watch that 10+ zone creep up to dc and Baltimore. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 11:28 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:28 PM 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: The heavier band is actually a bit further north. Yeah, yall are right. Not by much, but not as south as I thought. Was looking mainly at the northern edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Friday at 11:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:28 PM 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: Maybe I’m reading the WB charts wrong but 18z Euro looks like it actually improved a bit for DC. Yeah, shady call by the pbp. Tighten up @stormtracker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 11:28 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:28 PM 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: I hate to say; Randy’s pbp on the SV maps threw me off. This came north a bit on 18z euro I think. Heavier qpf definitely came north a bit. Yeah, I was off this time. Happens. See my above post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted Friday at 11:29 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:29 PM 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Yah, 18Z EURO ticked North. Come on folks, sharpen up! Pretty solid. Just need like a 15 mile north jump which is definitely feasible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 11:29 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:29 PM 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Maybe I’m reading the WB charts wrong but 18z Euro looks like it actually improved a bit for DC. It did. I shit the bed a bit. It's pretty minor, but not as south as I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Friday at 11:29 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:29 PM 5 minutes ago, IronTy said: Did tick north with the heavy accums tho. So greater than 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted Friday at 11:29 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:29 PM 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I said this morning that I figure a diabatically-driven north trend probably starts once the storm has developed. Given the slower trend across all guidance, that might not be until Sunday now. We’ll see. I still really like where we are to be very close to ground zero for this. Just let the Euro slowly nudge north and I expect at gametime it will end up a tiny bit north of modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 11:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:30 PM 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: The heavier band is actually a bit further north. With literally 10-11 more model runs before the first flakes start to fall, that much each time will get us close to the Gfs/Nam combo. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 11:30 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:30 PM I get it mofos....I screwed up. Yall are about to make my cry. 1 2 15 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Friday at 11:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:30 PM 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: This is a thing of beauty. Tomorrow we can watch that 10+ zone creep up to dc and Baltimore. Verbatim it would be better than 2016 blizzard down here. I'm keeping expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Friday at 11:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:30 PM 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I think you'll find when comparing them to say Pivotal, the snowfall color scheme is too high on SV. Meaning 6" is really 4" and 4" is really 2", etc. except when there is a glitch in the algo, SV 10:1 vs WB 10:1 apples to apples the maps are basically the same but with less granularity. I do wish SV would update their graphics. Not sure why the dont tbh. Because its a really good service otherwise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Friday at 11:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:30 PM I mean it is a noise change but the south bleed on the EURO stopped for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Friday at 11:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:31 PM 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I was off this time. Happens. See my above post No apologies necessary good sir. Thank you for your service and please continue your pbp every time. You are the goat. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 11:31 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:31 PM 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: Yeah, shady call by the pbp. Tighten up @stormtracker I hope it rains in all 3 of your locations under your screenname. 1 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted Friday at 11:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:31 PM 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: The heavier band is actually a bit further north. We shouldn’t let facts get in the way of irrational panic and despair. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 11:32 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:32 PM I'm going to sober up and be sharp for 0z 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Friday at 11:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:32 PM 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I'm happy where we are. My upper limit is 6. I think we might be able to pull it off...with all of the solutions so far I mean my o/u is probably still 5", But the ceiling is quite a bit higher imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Friday at 11:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:32 PM 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I was off this time. Happens. See my above post Too many drinks at lunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 11:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:32 PM Those ratio's on the Euro are awesome though. Like 15-16 to 1. Cold smoke. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 11:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:33 PM 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I still really like where we are to be very close to ground zero for this. Just let the Euro slowly nudge north and I expect at gametime it will end up a tiny bit north of modeled. I do too tbh. I’ve been saying 4-8” for our area and I don’t see a reason to change that now. But I think better chance of bumping that to 6-12” than 2-4”. 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 11:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:33 PM Another thing i noticed is the confluence the NE is definitely a bit lessened on 18z euro h75 vs 12z. low also a bit stronger. I’d sort of expect a bit more north based on those 2 changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Friday at 11:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:33 PM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I hope it rains in all 3 of your locations under your screenname. That's the deepest cut you can throw out on this site. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Friday at 11:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:34 PM 2 minutes ago, hstorm said: We shouldn’t let facts get in the way of irrational panic and despair. I assure you all panic here is rational...based on which step we are in the program. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Friday at 11:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:34 PM One tick further north and the Euro is perfect. Nothing wonky about it. Just bring that FGEN band north a tad. That 16 in SBY could so easily be in my yard. sorry @Lowershoresadness 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted Friday at 11:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:34 PM 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I said this morning that I figure a diabatically-driven north trend probably starts once the storm has developed. Given the slower trend across all guidance, that might not be until Sunday now. We’ll see. Small shifts like it just did are fine. None of us want it to correct to Scranton tho. Sorry PA people 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts