stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 I'd wait until tomorrow at 12z or even Sunday 0z to see if this thing is set. Probably gonna keep fluctuating at this point. If the Euro/UK hold....CMC same....and GFS/NAM stay north..I'd just tick it north just a smidge and prob still have Fredericksburg as the jack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:20 PM, Solution Man said: Gonna be a meeting in the middle Expand I figure that will happen but euro being stubborn with this farther south solution since 0z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:18 PM, stormtracker said: Out by 1am Tuesday. RIC 15+ DCA 6-8 Balt 4-6 Take this with a grain of salt. SV maps suck Expand Just when I thought the bleed south would stop, smh I mean as thar stands those just north of me are down to a dang advisory and I'm right on the edge! Well...go GFS, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:20 PM, Deck Pic said: i'm already losing my mind over this run. WB kuchie might make me faint. Expand Yeah, I'm happy where we are. My upper limit is 6. I think we might be able to pull it off...with all of the solutions so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:21 PM, WxUSAF said: I figure that will happen but euro being stubborn with this farther south solution since 0z last night. Expand Sure is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Do you genuinely believe that RIC will get more than 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:20 PM, Chris78 said: Euro has been rock steady for days. I would buy that over the Gfs unfortunately. Expand I disagree. We were the Bullseye for days on end. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:23 PM, clskinsfan said: I disagree. We were the Bullseye for days on end. Expand Not for atleast 4 runs in a row now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:20 PM, Chris78 said: Euro has been rock steady for days. I would buy that over the Gfs unfortunately. Expand It’s gone way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Did tick north with the heavy accums tho. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:21 PM, WxUSAF said: I figure that will happen but euro being stubborn with this farther south solution since 0z last night. Expand Would love to see if there is a correction that it makes once mesos get into their wheelhouse. I'm still betting on a north shift for the euro tomorrow. Only basing on years of watching and not anything pattern wise for this storm. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:23 PM, clskinsfan said: I disagree. We were the Bullseye for days on end. Expand Yeah, it’s only been maybe a day, starting with the UKMET last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I do think the UK would have been a better run than the Euro. Only having it to 66 sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 My NWS forecast has been updated to 4-7", so I guess they like the other group/average. EDIT: Euro is in that range now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I thought the euro shifted north. Yes, it’s still south but closer to coming to an agreement. Probably by tomorrow morning or afternoon, we’ll see this thing locked in. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The heavier band is actually a bit further north. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Yah, 18Z EURO ticked North. Come on folks, sharpen up! 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:17 PM, stormtracker said: Definitely moved south. Central VA RIC gonna be smoked Expand Maybe I’m reading the WB charts wrong but 18z Euro looks like it actually improved a bit for DC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I hate to say; Randy’s pbp on the SV maps threw me off. This came north a bit on 18z euro I think. Heavier qpf definitely came north a bit. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:24 PM, H2O said: Would love to see if there is a correction that it makes once mesos get into their wheelhouse. I'm still betting on a north shift for the euro tomorrow. Only basing on years of watching and not anything pattern wise for this storm. Expand I said this morning that I figure a diabatically-driven north trend probably starts once the storm has developed. Given the slower trend across all guidance, that might not be until Sunday now. We’ll see. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:21 PM, WxUSAF said: I figure that will happen but euro being stubborn with this farther south solution since 0z last night. Expand That 15" bullseye over Chester VA and the southern portion of the Del Marva seems a bit too suppressed. It never works out for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:24 PM, IronTy said: Did tick north with the heavy accums tho. Expand This is a thing of beauty. Tomorrow we can watch that 10+ zone creep up to dc and Baltimore. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:26 PM, CAPE said: The heavier band is actually a bit further north. Expand Yeah, yall are right. Not by much, but not as south as I thought. Was looking mainly at the northern edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:26 PM, jaydreb said: Maybe I’m reading the WB charts wrong but 18z Euro looks like it actually improved a bit for DC. Expand Yeah, shady call by the pbp. Tighten up @stormtracker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:27 PM, DDweatherman said: I hate to say; Randy’s pbp on the SV maps threw me off. This came north a bit on 18z euro I think. Heavier qpf definitely came north a bit. Expand Yeah, I was off this time. Happens. See my above post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:26 PM, Weather Will said: Yah, 18Z EURO ticked North. Come on folks, sharpen up! Expand Pretty solid. Just need like a 15 mile north jump which is definitely feasible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:26 PM, jaydreb said: Maybe I’m reading the WB charts wrong but 18z Euro looks like it actually improved a bit for DC. Expand It did. I shit the bed a bit. It's pretty minor, but not as south as I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:24 PM, IronTy said: Did tick north with the heavy accums tho. Expand So greater than 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:28 PM, WxUSAF said: I said this morning that I figure a diabatically-driven north trend probably starts once the storm has developed. Given the slower trend across all guidance, that might not be until Sunday now. We’ll see. Expand I still really like where we are to be very close to ground zero for this. Just let the Euro slowly nudge north and I expect at gametime it will end up a tiny bit north of modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 11:26 PM, CAPE said: The heavier band is actually a bit further north. Expand With literally 10-11 more model runs before the first flakes start to fall, that much each time will get us close to the Gfs/Nam combo. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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