WxUSAF Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Icon basically back to 12z yesterday's solution in terms of snow amounts. Slightly later arrival is consistent across all guidance. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, StormyClearweather said: And ticked north a tad. Noise, but still. It's still snowing a bit at the end of the run as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12z RGEM a tick back north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The potential for 1+ inch of frozen QPF is starting to show up in the trends. And with high temps forecast in the 20s and 30s for next week. It could be quite a winter wonderland for many. Some folks could easily jackpot over a foot. Woof. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 There'd probably also be another few hours of snow after the end of the 12z RGEM FWIW... I'd guess 3 to 6 more hours looking at h5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, rjvanals said: It's still snowing a bit at the end of the run as well Yep, and I pasted the wrong map. Thanks, and fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, yoda said: There'd probably also be another few hours of snow after the end of the 12z RGEM FWIW... I'd guess 3 to 6 more hours looking at h5 Good passage coming through there Yoda, I agree. Probably tack on 2-4 in a lot of spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: The potential for 1+ inch of frozen QPF is starting to show up in the trends. And with high temps forecast in the 20s and 30s for next week. It could be quite a winter wonderland for many. Some folks could easily jackpot over a foot. Woof. Goal posts are narrowing on your house bro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Great trends at 12z so far 4 minutes ago, yoda said: There'd probably also be another few hours of snow after the end of the 12z RGEM FWIW... I'd guess 3 to 6 more hours looking at h5 RGEM is beautiful, never dry slots us or mixes, 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I do think we need to remember although it's been awhile the euro has a tendency to move alot in this time frame. I remember many snow storms we have all tracked where the euro ventures off then comes back within 48. And it's forever the GFS vs Euro battle but the Euro is not perfect in this time frame for some reason. And don't be surprised if the GFS goes of it's rocker here soon too. There both similar at 500 it's just how they handle the confluence. The moisture fetch from the gulf is really remarkable on all guidance 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: The funny part is that the storm is almost split in two around the DC area with roughly half of the snowfall from the WAA and half from the coastal. Not sure I would really want to bet on the coastal giving that much but who knows. We often get overperformers from Coastals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Great trends at 12z so far RGEM is beautiful, never dry slots us or mixes, 8-12. Yeah best run yet by far. Pure powder out here. Its a beaut. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I don’t know why anyone pays attention to the rgem snow totals. Must have short memories. It that gave Baltimore 50 inches of snow in two days in 2021 and was off by 45 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 GFS go time! May the odds be in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, notvirga! said: I don’t know why anyone pays attention to the rgem snow totals. Must have short memories. It that gave Baltimore 50 inches of snow in two days in 2021 and was off by 45 inches. This is true, but it generally is decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 WB RDPS ticked North at 12Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 10 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: I do think we need to remember although it's been awhile the euro has a tendency to move alot in this time frame. I remember many snow storms we have all tracked where the euro ventures off then comes back within 48. And it's forever the GFS vs Euro battle but the Euro is not perfect in this time frame for some reason. And don't be surprised if the GFS goes of it's rocker here soon too. There both similar at 500 it's just how they handle the confluence. The moisture fetch from the gulf is really remarkable on all guidance You are absolutely right. I learned this back in 2014 and 2015 when I really started to track the various models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, notvirga! said: I don’t know why anyone pays attention to the rgem snow totals. Must have short memories. It that gave Baltimore 50 inches of snow in two days in 2021 and was off by 45 inches. I think when it’s showing something in the range of reasonable guidance you can look at it. RGEM and it’d HRDPS cousin do have a documented cold/wet (overdoing banding) bias, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I think when it’s showing something in the range of reasonable guidance you can look at it. RGEM and it’d HRDPS cousin do have a documented cold/wet (overdoing banding) bias, though. It does look very reasonable on the runs for this storm with regards to QPF and high level details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, notvirga! said: I don’t know why anyone pays attention to the rgem snow totals. Must have short memories. It that gave Baltimore 50 inches of snow in two days in 2021 and was off by 45 inches. I'll still take it over the NAM 90% of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Very early impressions...vort amp'd a hair...confluence is a hair stronger and held back a little 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 10 minutes ago, notvirga! said: I don’t know why anyone pays attention to the rgem snow totals. Must have short memories. It that gave Baltimore 50 inches of snow in two days in 2021 and was off by 45 inches. It actually did really well with the storm earlier this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 S/w compares about the same as 6z. Confluence is just a smidge stronger so far 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Precip on the doorstep at 3z...starts shortly after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 about to get moderate at 9z. thermals are fine 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, stormtracker said: about to get moderate at 9z. thermals are fine How about that piece up in NE? Feels like that's becoming key. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Moderate to heavy at 7am Monday...thermals still ok 10 am, moderate to heavy....thermals inching north, but DC still north of it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Close at 18z Monday. 0 bisects DC, sfc still south...moderate to heavy precip ongoing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Open wave at 78 instead of closed vort same time previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Cools back of at 21z...looks like 18z is the closest it gets to DC north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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