yoda Posted Friday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:15 PM Deutschland Deutschland Uber alles! 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Friday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:15 PM 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: You can call it a trend at this point, but works for lots of folks here. It can stop now. Also, too bad it's the iCON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted Friday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:15 PM It looks like a very wet run as well. This would be a lot of sleet south of the immediate DC suburbs, and significant ice in Central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted Friday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:15 PM ICON is maybe a slight south but overall, works for most and looks very similar to 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AACOUNTYMD Posted Friday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:15 PM i was lurking on another forum- if the high is stronger coming out of the Tennessee Valley, will that bring up warmer-ish air and more moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Friday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:15 PM 9 minutes ago, usedtobe said: But also more potential to drag warm air north for mixing with the warm advection especially as rates fall off. It's great to see you Wes. Thank you for gracing us with your presence. Whenever i see you posting i know a big storm is coming. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted Friday at 03:16 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:16 PM RGEM long range looks good for this storm also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Friday at 03:17 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:17 PM 3 minutes ago, rjvanals said: RGEM long range looks good for this storm also And ticked north a tad. Noise, but still. **edit to end of run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 03:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:18 PM Icon basically back to 12z yesterday's solution in terms of snow amounts. Slightly later arrival is consistent across all guidance. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted Friday at 03:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:18 PM Just now, StormyClearweather said: And ticked north a tad. Noise, but still. It's still snowing a bit at the end of the run as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Friday at 03:19 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:19 PM 12z RGEM a tick back north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted Friday at 03:19 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:19 PM The potential for 1+ inch of frozen QPF is starting to show up in the trends. And with high temps forecast in the 20s and 30s for next week. It could be quite a winter wonderland for many. Some folks could easily jackpot over a foot. Woof. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Friday at 03:19 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:19 PM There'd probably also be another few hours of snow after the end of the 12z RGEM FWIW... I'd guess 3 to 6 more hours looking at h5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Friday at 03:20 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:20 PM Just now, rjvanals said: It's still snowing a bit at the end of the run as well Yep, and I pasted the wrong map. Thanks, and fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 03:23 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:23 PM 3 minutes ago, yoda said: There'd probably also be another few hours of snow after the end of the 12z RGEM FWIW... I'd guess 3 to 6 more hours looking at h5 Good passage coming through there Yoda, I agree. Probably tack on 2-4 in a lot of spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Friday at 03:23 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:23 PM 4 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: The potential for 1+ inch of frozen QPF is starting to show up in the trends. And with high temps forecast in the 20s and 30s for next week. It could be quite a winter wonderland for many. Some folks could easily jackpot over a foot. Woof. Goal posts are narrowing on your house bro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Friday at 03:23 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:23 PM Great trends at 12z so far 4 minutes ago, yoda said: There'd probably also be another few hours of snow after the end of the 12z RGEM FWIW... I'd guess 3 to 6 more hours looking at h5 RGEM is beautiful, never dry slots us or mixes, 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Friday at 03:24 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:24 PM I do think we need to remember although it's been awhile the euro has a tendency to move alot in this time frame. I remember many snow storms we have all tracked where the euro ventures off then comes back within 48. And it's forever the GFS vs Euro battle but the Euro is not perfect in this time frame for some reason. And don't be surprised if the GFS goes of it's rocker here soon too. There both similar at 500 it's just how they handle the confluence. The moisture fetch from the gulf is really remarkable on all guidance 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted Friday at 03:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:27 PM 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: The funny part is that the storm is almost split in two around the DC area with roughly half of the snowfall from the WAA and half from the coastal. Not sure I would really want to bet on the coastal giving that much but who knows. We often get overperformers from Coastals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 03:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:28 PM 3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Great trends at 12z so far RGEM is beautiful, never dry slots us or mixes, 8-12. Yeah best run yet by far. Pure powder out here. Its a beaut. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted Friday at 03:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:30 PM I don’t know why anyone pays attention to the rgem snow totals. Must have short memories. It that gave Baltimore 50 inches of snow in two days in 2021 and was off by 45 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 03:32 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:32 PM GFS go time! May the odds be in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Friday at 03:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:35 PM 4 minutes ago, notvirga! said: I don’t know why anyone pays attention to the rgem snow totals. Must have short memories. It that gave Baltimore 50 inches of snow in two days in 2021 and was off by 45 inches. This is true, but it generally is decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Friday at 03:35 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:35 PM WB RDPS ticked North at 12Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted Friday at 03:36 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:36 PM 10 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: I do think we need to remember although it's been awhile the euro has a tendency to move alot in this time frame. I remember many snow storms we have all tracked where the euro ventures off then comes back within 48. And it's forever the GFS vs Euro battle but the Euro is not perfect in this time frame for some reason. And don't be surprised if the GFS goes of it's rocker here soon too. There both similar at 500 it's just how they handle the confluence. The moisture fetch from the gulf is really remarkable on all guidance You are absolutely right. I learned this back in 2014 and 2015 when I really started to track the various models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Friday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:37 PM 5 minutes ago, notvirga! said: I don’t know why anyone pays attention to the rgem snow totals. Must have short memories. It that gave Baltimore 50 inches of snow in two days in 2021 and was off by 45 inches. I think when it’s showing something in the range of reasonable guidance you can look at it. RGEM and it’d HRDPS cousin do have a documented cold/wet (overdoing banding) bias, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 03:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:38 PM Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I think when it’s showing something in the range of reasonable guidance you can look at it. RGEM and it’d HRDPS cousin do have a documented cold/wet (overdoing banding) bias, though. It does look very reasonable on the runs for this storm with regards to QPF and high level details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted Friday at 03:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:38 PM 6 minutes ago, notvirga! said: I don’t know why anyone pays attention to the rgem snow totals. Must have short memories. It that gave Baltimore 50 inches of snow in two days in 2021 and was off by 45 inches. I'll still take it over the NAM 90% of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Friday at 03:38 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:38 PM Very early impressions...vort amp'd a hair...confluence is a hair stronger and held back a little 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 03:41 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:41 PM 10 minutes ago, notvirga! said: I don’t know why anyone pays attention to the rgem snow totals. Must have short memories. It that gave Baltimore 50 inches of snow in two days in 2021 and was off by 45 inches. It actually did really well with the storm earlier this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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