stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Finally starts between 9-12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Look at the moisture fetch from the gulf 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: It's getting slower and slower but more amped in the Midwest same here tho for sure pretty much I'd like a little bit more to the south if it is gonna try to amp more (it has 'southed' a bit) but approve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, stormtracker said: Finally starts between 9-12z Comes in hot and heavy though at 09z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Moderate to heavy at 15z Monday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Should be south of 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Ravens94 said: Look at the moisture fetch from the gulf It's a very potent shortwave and a decently intense surface low reflection moving in the right region to maximize SW flow into the cold sector of the storm. Not surprised to see what the precip frames look like. Pretty good run is cooking methinks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Heavy at 78...SFC freezing and thermals are ok for DC north 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Enough with the banter you weenies. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Id have to imagine if this was go time the southeast component to the winds would advect a nice fetch of moisture and ring out what isn’t being picked up maybe a little earlier on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Getting NAM'D WB 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 looks like crazy ice for Virginia per the NAM hope its more sleet than Fr Rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, stormtracker said: Heavy at 78...SFC freezing and thermals are ok for DC north WxBell's p-type guesser says DCA has flipped by 75 - but worth digging into the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Good run, thermals get close for DC at hr 81...SFC freezing well south...the uppers are close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Through 15z Monday, heaviest QPF DC up to HGR and west, it's a very thumpy slug. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: WxBell's p-type guesser says DCA has flipped by 75 - but worth digging into the soundings. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Back to snow at hr 84 with more precip prob to follow the 84 hour panel 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: WxBell's p-type guesser says DCA has flipped by 75 - but worth digging into the soundings. It's close at~800 which is why it flips to sleet on the p-type guesser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: What good is cold with out the snow lol Well it does snow in DC on the Euro. Coastal taking over at 84 on the NAM. This is a good run and would be plenty of QPF for all of Maryland, DC, and NOVA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, yoda said: Ever so close…probably sleety/snow mix with snow if rates heavy. This was a good run for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, stormtracker said: Back to snow at hr 84 with more precip prob to follow the 84 hour panel Probably another 6 hours of snow I would guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Surface temps in the mid 20s are nice though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Alright...back for the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Taking some of the NAM "biases" into play and looking at thermals, that seems to be a really solid run for most DC and north. Plenty cold at the surface and heavy QPF. Vort is closed off at h5,h7,h85 on the way in and a great pass for the secondary slug to come in post 84 for extras. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It is crazy that the width of heavy snow is about 80 miles wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Yeah, anyone complaining about this run of the NAM shouldn’t be. No south trend and temps are so close to a beat down. Snow still going at the end of the run too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 NAM usually a cold model up and down the column. But not putting a ton of stock in thermals at this range. If it can stay at or under 0C then rates can help 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Interstate said: It is crazy that the width of heavy snow is about 80 miles wide. I was just going to post this. Definitely thinner than the other models. Good luck nailing that down 3 days out lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It's a good run for most, but there is a shift south from 6z. This is total snowfall thru 78hrs on 12z vs 84hrs on 6z. Admittedly, I'm focused on the north side. But there is more to the storm after end of run which may compensate. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts