stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Heavy at 78...SFC freezing and thermals are ok for DC north 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Enough with the banter you weenies. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Id have to imagine if this was go time the southeast component to the winds would advect a nice fetch of moisture and ring out what isn’t being picked up maybe a little earlier on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Getting NAM'D WB 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 looks like crazy ice for Virginia per the NAM hope its more sleet than Fr Rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 2:38 PM, stormtracker said: Heavy at 78...SFC freezing and thermals are ok for DC north Expand WxBell's p-type guesser says DCA has flipped by 75 - but worth digging into the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Good run, thermals get close for DC at hr 81...SFC freezing well south...the uppers are close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Through 15z Monday, heaviest QPF DC up to HGR and west, it's a very thumpy slug. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 2:39 PM, NorthArlington101 said: WxBell's p-type guesser says DCA has flipped by 75 - but worth digging into the soundings. Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Back to snow at hr 84 with more precip prob to follow the 84 hour panel 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 2:39 PM, NorthArlington101 said: WxBell's p-type guesser says DCA has flipped by 75 - but worth digging into the soundings. Expand It's close at~800 which is why it flips to sleet on the p-type guesser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 2:25 PM, winter_warlock said: What good is cold with out the snow lol Expand Well it does snow in DC on the Euro. Coastal taking over at 84 on the NAM. This is a good run and would be plenty of QPF for all of Maryland, DC, and NOVA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 2:40 PM, yoda said: Expand Ever so close…probably sleety/snow mix with snow if rates heavy. This was a good run for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 2:40 PM, stormtracker said: Back to snow at hr 84 with more precip prob to follow the 84 hour panel Expand Probably another 6 hours of snow I would guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Surface temps in the mid 20s are nice though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Alright...back for the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Taking some of the NAM "biases" into play and looking at thermals, that seems to be a really solid run for most DC and north. Plenty cold at the surface and heavy QPF. Vort is closed off at h5,h7,h85 on the way in and a great pass for the secondary slug to come in post 84 for extras. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It is crazy that the width of heavy snow is about 80 miles wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Yeah, anyone complaining about this run of the NAM shouldn’t be. No south trend and temps are so close to a beat down. Snow still going at the end of the run too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 NAM usually a cold model up and down the column. But not putting a ton of stock in thermals at this range. If it can stay at or under 0C then rates can help 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 2:44 PM, Interstate said: It is crazy that the width of heavy snow is about 80 miles wide. Expand I was just going to post this. Definitely thinner than the other models. Good luck nailing that down 3 days out lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It's a good run for most, but there is a shift south from 6z. This is total snowfall thru 78hrs on 12z vs 84hrs on 6z. Admittedly, I'm focused on the north side. But there is more to the storm after end of run which may compensate. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Plenty of good fronto around as the WAA slug moves in for us, there would be some really solid rates here. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 2:45 PM, Chris78 said: I was just going to post this. Definitely thinner than the other models. Good luck nailing that down 3 days out lol Expand The warmer temps shaves off snow totals on the south side hence the smaller stripe. It’s just icier is all 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Almost everyone gets frozen precip on the NAM then we get it to stick around. Nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 2:46 PM, mitchnick said: It's a good run for most, but there is a shift south fromn6z. This is total snowfall thru 78hrs on 12z vs 84hrs on 6z. Admittedly, I'm focused on the north side. But there is more to the storm after end of run which may compensate. Expand Thats the EPS mitch, NAM didn't do much southing, more so tightened up the QPF distro gradient. Would be some nice high ratio snow post h84 for us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Not much point in looking into NAM details outside of 48 hrs for those new here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 2:47 PM, DDweatherman said: Thats the EPS mitch, NAM didn't do much southing, more so tightened up the QPF distro gradient. Would be some nice high ratio snow post h84 for us as well. Expand Fixed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 2:48 PM, Shad said: Not much point in looking into NAM details outside of 48 hrs for those new here Expand Don’t worry we’re gonna talk about the icon in 20 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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