mattie g Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I'm not sure why there's so much talk of the models shifting so horribly. The swath of decent snow for this system is what...maybe 150 miles wide? Excepting the crazy GFS run last night, most are shifting like 25 miles north/south from run to run (so 50-ish miles total) and have been for days. That's incredible accuracy. People on the fringes may think otherwise (and it's easy for me to say this because I'm squarely in the goalposts), but in reality the models have been pretty amazing on this. 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Day 3 of saying this, buuuut a split between the euro / gfs is a good bet at this juncture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'm not sure why there's so much talk of the models shifting so horribly. The swath of decent snow for this system is what...maybe 150 miles wide? Excepting the crazy GFS run last night, most are shifting like 25 miles north/south from run to run (so 50-ish miles total) and have been for days. That's incredible accuracy. People on the fringes may think otherwise (and it's easy for me to say this because I'm squarely in the goalposts), but in reality the models have been pretty amazing on this. 100% this. Getting a 150 mile swath of snowfall correct from 3-4 days out is the equivalent of netting a basketball from half court. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'm not sure why there's so much talk of the models shifting so horribly. The swath of decent snow for this system is what...maybe 150 miles wide? Excepting the crazy GFS run last night, most are shifting like 25 miles north/south from run to run (so 50-ish miles total) and have been for days. That's incredible accuracy. People on the fringes may think otherwise (and it's easy for me to say this because I'm squarely in the goalposts), but in reality the models have been pretty amazing on this. you new here? lol Its the mid-atlantic way! 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Terpeast said: 100% this. Getting a 150 mile swath of snowfall correct from 3-4 days out is the equivalent of netting a basketball from half court. Hopefully the Euro is Steph Curry in this scenario and not *insert wizard player* 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 hours ago, yoda said: Zoomed in PW Kuchera 06z GFS God bless America. Euro must be out to lunch 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Initial snow forecast for January 5-6 (late Sunday into Monday). Favoring the cluster of more northern solutions overall, with some mixing issues showing up from D.C. southward (but not before a decent amount of snow). Euro's more southern track is certainly something to keep an eye on. Main concerns are with potential mixing in the southern areas cutting into totals, and sharpening up the northern gradient once there's better confidence in the track. 27 9 1 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Initial snow forecast for January 5-6 (late Sunday into Monday). Favoring the cluster of more northern solutions overall, with some mixing issues showing up from D.C. southward (but not before a decent amount of snow). Euro's more southern track is certainly something to keep an eye on. Main concerns are with potential mixing in the southern areas cutting into totals, and sharpening up the northern gradient once there's better confidence in the track. Approved. You can stay. Honestly surprised at the bullish call. 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Initial snow forecast for January 5-6 (late Sunday into Monday). Favoring the cluster of more northern solutions overall, with some mixing issues showing up from D.C. southward (but not before a decent amount of snow). Euro's more southern track is certainly something to keep an eye on. Main concerns are with potential mixing in the southern areas cutting into totals, and sharpening up the northern gradient once there's better confidence in the track. We need an "I Love You" emoji. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 35 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: One thing about the 6z Euro being further south is it's quite cold. Starts around 27 in DC and drops to 23/24 during the heaviest precip then only 26/27 for the high. Very little snow would be wasted in that situation. I love events like that. What good is cold with out the snow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Ok, so NAM running. Didn't see much talk of 6z...wasn't bad from what I could tell. Anyway, so far, a little more amp'd out front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Nam is slower and trending slower out west with the LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, stormtracker said: Ok, so NAM running. Didn't see much talk of 6z...wasn't bad from what I could tell. Anyway, so far, a little more amp'd out front. It was a big run, 6z Nam that is. Had put a lot of snow down by the end of the run with a fair bit more to come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Approved. You can stay. Honestly surprised at the bullish call. The extent of the southern blue is new territory for this storm. Usually he has the dreaded grey over my house and up to Capitol Hill. It’s a wide swath and a good call given the model shifts. hold me. It might be a good one for us 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Is he a real met? Or a wishful thinker lol He's a met, because he has a....met tag. Normally conservative and pretty good. Long time member. 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: Nam is slower and trending slower out west with the LP Very similar to 6z though. Height lines in east are dead on to 6z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Wow, a 5 contour closed s/w at H54 on Pivotal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, mitchnick said: Very similar to 6z though. Height lines in east are dead on to 6z too. It's getting slower and slower but more amped in the Midwest same here tho for sure pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Very similar to 6z though. Height lines in east are dead on to 6z too. Definitely a little dynamic s/w. Height lines are about the same..maybe a hair north. Would like to see the confluence a little more stout/souther on the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 That's a really impressive vort coming across the country on the 12z NAM. You're going to want to be in the meat of this thing when it hits. Definitely a bit less press from the NE influence thus far through 57h. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Reminder just in case anyone forgot that nam bias is too wet (12k especially) and too amped. When NAM’s track agrees closely with the global guidance (18z tomorrow?), then using it for thermals/mixing/banding is the proper value-added use. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12z NAM sure is slow... barely snowing in VA at 06z Mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Nice squall line showing up on 12z run. Goes to show the dynamics at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Finally starts between 9-12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Look at the moisture fetch from the gulf 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: It's getting slower and slower but more amped in the Midwest same here tho for sure pretty much I'd like a little bit more to the south if it is gonna try to amp more (it has 'southed' a bit) but approve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, stormtracker said: Finally starts between 9-12z Comes in hot and heavy though at 09z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Moderate to heavy at 15z Monday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Should be south of 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Ravens94 said: Look at the moisture fetch from the gulf It's a very potent shortwave and a decently intense surface low reflection moving in the right region to maximize SW flow into the cold sector of the storm. Not surprised to see what the precip frames look like. Pretty good run is cooking methinks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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