Eskimo Joe Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It's that lobe north of Maine that is now showing up and sinking south, pushing everything down. Elements for the Sunday -> Monday event are getting better sampled as they enter the North American upper air network. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, mappy said: honestly, I'd laugh very hard if by Sunday night the storm missed most of the forum and we spent all this time tracking something we don't actually get. This hobby is honestly stupid lol. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Lets be honest here, the Euro is not good news. Especially for areas north of DC. But even DC is not great. But its worlds apart from the GFS/ICON. Everything is still unsolved. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12z will be interesting. Not the first time Lucy takes the football from us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Lets be honest here, the Euro is not good news. Especially for areas north of DC. But even DC is not great. But its worlds apart from the GFS/ICON. Everything is still unsolved. It’s good for dc metro. Euro shows warning level snow. 6z EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It's that lobe north of Maine that is now showing up and sinking south, pushing everything down. I see your location is Hanover. I know you messaged me about living in the same town. I hope we don’t totally get screwed haha. Idc if DC gets 12” just give me at least 6” I’d be fine. As long as it snows over 3” I’d be happy. If somehow we get basically nothing that will be so disheartening. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Hopefully by tonight's runs we will have an idea how far south or north this thing can go. The envelope has to close and get mailed soon to be delivered by Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Hopefully by tonight's runs we will have an idea how far south or north this thing can go. The envelope has to close and get mailed soon to be delivered by Monday Models should have this sorted out by July. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 15 minutes ago, Solution Man said: We almost have to be perfect for big snows I thought this setup was about perfect. Still I like our chances. Nothing I saw except 0z GFS made me upset. PWC could jackpot this one. Oh yeah it’s happening! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think @psuhoffmanis probably doing the “guy peaking out from behind the tree rubbing his hands” gif thing once he sees the overnight runs. I think you’re good. If the max ends up along the VA/NC border, then that’s probably too far. I think it depends on the next two cycles honestly. I’ve seen this play out so many times. I feel confident the final 48 hours will feature a north trend in the guidance for all the reasons laid out. The unknown is does it sink south even more before then! And no one knows, the guidance is ingesting better data on a new feature/variable and trends can reverse at any time. The north adjustment isn’t as great as it once was so if this sinks any further south at 12 or 18z then the PA line counties are in trouble imo. If guidance stabilizes where it is right now we’re fine. We do miss plenty of storms up here that max south of us, but we more than make up for it with storms that max north of DC obviously, but when we are fine is if the qpf max is near DC-Baltimore and our ratios along with orographic enhancement puts us over the top. If the qpf max is south of DC that’s when we do get fringed or missed completely and it happens a lot more than people seem to think, probably because there are way more examples when we get more so who cares in the long run is a very fair view but right now at this moment all anyone cares about is this storm lol. 11 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 15 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Hopefully by tonight's runs we will have an idea how far south or north this thing can go. The envelope has to close and get mailed soon to be delivered by Monday Usually in overunning situations like this where we are waiting for the system to actually develop guidance bounces all around. Once this gets going around Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon is when we should finally have some sort of realistic concensus. We are playing the windshield wiper game still with that heavier fronto band and we just can't know N , S , or center yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Eps south too. Last 5 mean snowfall from our "best" model. Lol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Eps south too. Last 5 mean snowfall from our "best" model. Lol Still have about 66 hours for further position fixing. Folks acting like this is coming tonight or tomorrow. The joys of long range tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Eps south too. Last 5 mean snowfall from our "best" model. Lol I remember the blizzard in 2016 when the 0z euro shifted south big time like 48hrs out and everyone was cliff jumping and then 12z went back north. Euro has kinda been going back and forth last 2 days shifted north then back south then north and now south again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, snowfan said: Still have about 66 hours for further position fixing. Folks acting like this is coming tonight or tomorrow. The joys of long range tracking. Yeah, true. I think today we set the goal posts. I still like where our sub forum is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Eps south too. Last 5 mean snowfall from our "best" model. Lol South but juicing up more every run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Eps south too. Last 5 mean snowfall from our "best" model. Lol Getting juicy FWIW 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Getting juicy FWIW It doesn't matter if it is juicing up... if it goes to NC 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I like where the Euro is if it stops shifting south now. I want the max around Nova/DC leading up to the storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: South but juicing up more every run It appears so on that, but I think that's more of a timing difference between the different runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, mitchnick said: It appears so on that, but I think that's more of a timing difference between the different runs. Also could be losing some of the total misses the closer we get. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: We have some breathing room. Again. For how long? Who knows. Breathing room for the south people maybe 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Very weird to see the Euro (which was rock steady for days) make such wide swings in the last 12 hours. Have to think somewhere between the GFS and Euro camps is the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The models have been swingy in this one - but I do know it is going to snow. Maybe 3 inches. Maybe 13. I’m good 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, IUsedToHateCold said: The models have been swingy in this one - but I do know it is going to snow. Maybe 3 inches. Maybe 13. I’m good Must be new to the area lol. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Fwiw, latest SREF snowfall did shift south, but did put DC/BWI area in the bullseye. Question remains "when does it stop?" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, mitchnick said: Fwiw, latest SREF snowfall did shift south, but did put DC/BWI area in the bullseye. Question remains "when does it stop?" Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, mitchnick said: Fwiw, latest SREF snowfall did shift south, but did put DC/BWI area in the bullseye. Question remains "when does it stop?" Total hunch, i think it stops today 12z or 18z then once the system gets going east of the rockies, they tick back north 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, mappy said: honestly, I'd laugh very hard if by Sunday night the storm missed most of the forum and we spent all this time tracking something we don't actually get. 100% But upshots are 1. I learn more each season about the climatological nuts & bolts that put us in "thread the needle" mode around here, and 2) because of that accumulated knowledge, I refuse to rend my garments or gnash my teeth any longer if tracking a potential storm for days doesn't pan out...which is the rule rather than the exception here on the DMV southside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Total hunch, i think it stops today 12z or 18z then once the system gets going east of the rockies, they tick back north Hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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