bncho Posted Friday at 05:36 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:36 AM 1 minute ago, Ji said: im going to state the fucking obvious yup. euro is much more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Friday at 05:37 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:37 AM Take the gfs and euro blend and it’s all golden. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 05:38 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:38 AM Just now, TSSN+ said: Take the gfs and euro blend and it’s all golden. For you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted Friday at 05:40 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:40 AM 19 minutes ago, WVclimo said: DT’s first stab at it woohoo the 8-10" contour is in my backyard! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Friday at 05:41 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:41 AM just seems like a drier--south run. We can definitely afford a north shift more than another south shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Friday at 05:41 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:41 AM 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: For you His post makes no sense. But I've been dunkin on dude too much tonight. Cause I know he's going to get like 13.5". So I'm preliminarily peeved. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 05:42 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:42 AM Just now, Ji said: just seems like a drier--south run. We can definitely afford a north shift more than another south shift Bro. Compared to the American models we should be running around naked in the streets at the Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted Friday at 05:43 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:43 AM Just now, Ji said: just seems like a drier--south run. We can definitely afford a north shift more than another south shift Always seems like there's an inevitable last minute north shift. Can't really complain too much with what's currently being modeled here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Friday at 05:43 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:43 AM Just now, Deck Pic said: His post makes no sense. But I've been dunkin on dude too much tonight. Cause I know he's going to get like 13.5". So I'm preliminarily peeved. My post makes plenty sense. If you take the average mean of the euro and gfs and split the difference it puts the bullseye between dc and Baltimore. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted Friday at 05:43 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:43 AM Just now, Ji said: just seems like a drier--south run. We can definitely afford a north shift more than another south shift It's in a really good spot for 72hrs out. Might even want it a bit further south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Friday at 05:43 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:43 AM 2 minutes ago, Ji said: just seems like a drier--south run. We can definitely afford a north shift more than another south shift Are you enjoying following your first winter storm, kid? My name is Matt. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted Friday at 05:44 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:44 AM The Central Virginia crew feels like they just connected on a Hail Mary. 4 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted Friday at 05:44 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:44 AM You know, all in all THIS (the snideness and bickering over IMBY analysis) is SO much better than the previous 2 years. Someone is gonna get a great snow, MOST are gonna see the first decent snow in years and some are gonna get some ice. But at least there is SOMETHING to discuss and watch, with maybe more ahead. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 05:44 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:44 AM Just now, Deck Pic said: His post makes no sense. But I've been dunkin on dude too much tonight. Cause I know he's going to get like 13.5". So I'm preliminarily peeved. I am Hammered. I am close to not caring anymore. Because we are either getting a front end thump with a shit ton of ice on top. Or we are getting buried with snow. Welcome to the Shenandoah Valley. He is fretting the fringe. It is what it is. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted Friday at 05:44 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:44 AM https://kaosfactory.github.io/wxblox/fmap.html?lat=39.1242536,-76.5374943 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Friday at 05:47 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:47 AM 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: My post makes plenty sense. If you take the average mean of the euro and gfs and split the difference it puts the bullseye between dc and Baltimore. Assigning an outlier model run that everyone tossed the same weight as a juggernaut that is consistent with other guidance is a silly way to approach these runs. You don't take a AAA player and Barry Bonds steroid era, add them together and divide by 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Friday at 05:48 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:48 AM 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: My post makes plenty sense. If you take the average mean of the euro and gfs and split the difference it puts the bullseye between dc and Baltimore. What average? There is no average. The American suite likes your area. The European suite does not. That's the way the mofo cookie crumbles. And no slight to you. But PA posters should be in the Philly forum. Been saying it for years. You DO NOT live in the Mid Atlantic. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted Friday at 05:48 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:48 AM Canadian ensembles shift south as well. 00z Canadian and 18z Euro ensembles scarily alike. We lock? 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Friday at 05:48 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:48 AM Just now, Deck Pic said: Assigning an outlier model run that everyone tossed the same weight as a juggernaut that is consistent with other guidance is a silly way to approach these runs. You don't take a AAA player and Barry Bonds steroid era, add them together and divide by 2 isnt that what the model blend model does...takes the elite model and puts them the same blender with the crap models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Friday at 05:49 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:49 AM 4 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: You know, all in all THIS (the snideness and bickering over IMBY analysis) is SO much better than the previous 2 years. Someone is gonna get a great snow, MOST are gonna see the first decent snow in years and some are gonna get some ice. But at least there is SOMETHING to discuss and watch, with maybe more ahead. We had two 3-6" events like 60 hours apart last winter. Snow on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Friday at 05:49 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:49 AM Just now, clskinsfan said: What average? There is no average. The American suite likes your area. The European suite does not. That's the way the mofo cookie crumbles. And no slight to you. But PA posters should be in the Philly forum. Been saying it for years. You DO NOT live in the Mid Atlantic. that forum is dead though....like Ron Rivera draft picks 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Friday at 05:50 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:50 AM 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Assigning an outlier model run that everyone tossed the same weight as a juggernaut that is consistent with other guidance is a silly way to approach these runs. You don't take a AAA player and Barry Bonds steroid era, add them together and divide by 2 There’s multiple models showing a bunch of different outcomes you can’t call one an outlier. Gfs is most north, ukmet most south with cmc and euro somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Friday at 05:50 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:50 AM 1 minute ago, snowdude said: Canadian ensembles shift south as well. 00z Canadian and 18z Euro ensembles scarily alike. We lock? We take. inked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Friday at 05:52 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:52 AM 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: What average? There is no average. The American suite likes your area. The European suite does not. That's the way the mofo cookie crumbles. And no slight to you. But PA posters should be in the Philly forum. Been saying it for years. You DO NOT live in the Mid Atlantic. That’s why there’s called a thing the NWS called the NBM. Blend of the models. And I live like 2 mins over the Maryland line I’m not going to post in the Philly forum thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Friday at 05:53 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:53 AM 3 minutes ago, Ji said: isnt that what the model blend model does...takes the elite model and puts them the same blender with the crap models? yeah lol...but I think there is more to it. They used to blend canadian too. I dont know if thats the case anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted Friday at 05:53 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:53 AM 1 minute ago, Ji said: isnt that what the model blend model does...takes the elite model and puts them the same blender with the crap models? model blends and multi-physics ensembles are the worst thing thought up by the NWP community in the last 20 years. It's the worst possible way of addressing model error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted Friday at 05:55 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:55 AM 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: We had two 3-6" events like 60 hours apart last winter. Snow on snow. That was fun because we went from close to nothing to a more robust storm twice. This time we've been watching it for a week+, it's fun to know something is coming (and hurts so much more when we get the big shaft) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted Friday at 05:55 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:55 AM 5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: We had two 3-6" events like 60 hours apart last winter. Snow on snow. The I-66 corridor and north had those, from CHO south? Not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Friday at 05:58 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:58 AM 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: That’s why there’s called a thing the NWS called the NBM. Blend of the models. And I live like 2 mins over the Maryland line I’m not going to post in the Philly forum thanks. I dont care about the PA thing. Your location actually makes sense to be with us. It's just that you should realize you will overperform in a colder solution There will be secondary banding that modelling isn't picking up. A secondary QPF maxima. You know this. If the models give you like .60 cold QPF, I'd probably swing for the fences in your backyard and go 8-12" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Friday at 06:06 AM Share Posted Friday at 06:06 AM Euro ens. 0z top 18z bottom. Includes .5-1” from tomorrow in the northern areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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