stormtracker Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 So for most of the forum, even north...honestly you gotta like our position in the model spray so far. Would be nice to have the GFS around...but it's the northern limit and UK is the southern limit...Euro is roughly in between 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 it seems alot more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 WB 0Z EURO, GFS, and Canada at 7am Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 La la lock it up. The subforum is staring down a WSW event. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Ji said: im going to state the fucking obvious yup. euro is much more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Take the gfs and euro blend and it’s all golden. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, TSSN+ said: Take the gfs and euro blend and it’s all golden. For you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 19 minutes ago, WVclimo said: DT’s first stab at it woohoo the 8-10" contour is in my backyard! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 just seems like a drier--south run. We can definitely afford a north shift more than another south shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Ji said: just seems like a drier--south run. We can definitely afford a north shift more than another south shift Bro. Compared to the American models we should be running around naked in the streets at the Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Ji said: just seems like a drier--south run. We can definitely afford a north shift more than another south shift Always seems like there's an inevitable last minute north shift. Can't really complain too much with what's currently being modeled here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Deck Pic said: His post makes no sense. But I've been dunkin on dude too much tonight. Cause I know he's going to get like 13.5". So I'm preliminarily peeved. My post makes plenty sense. If you take the average mean of the euro and gfs and split the difference it puts the bullseye between dc and Baltimore. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Ji said: just seems like a drier--south run. We can definitely afford a north shift more than another south shift It's in a really good spot for 72hrs out. Might even want it a bit further south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The Central Virginia crew feels like they just connected on a Hail Mary. 4 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 You know, all in all THIS (the snideness and bickering over IMBY analysis) is SO much better than the previous 2 years. Someone is gonna get a great snow, MOST are gonna see the first decent snow in years and some are gonna get some ice. But at least there is SOMETHING to discuss and watch, with maybe more ahead. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Deck Pic said: His post makes no sense. But I've been dunkin on dude too much tonight. Cause I know he's going to get like 13.5". So I'm preliminarily peeved. I am Hammered. I am close to not caring anymore. Because we are either getting a front end thump with a shit ton of ice on top. Or we are getting buried with snow. Welcome to the Shenandoah Valley. He is fretting the fringe. It is what it is. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 https://kaosfactory.github.io/wxblox/fmap.html?lat=39.1242536,-76.5374943 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: My post makes plenty sense. If you take the average mean of the euro and gfs and split the difference it puts the bullseye between dc and Baltimore. What average? There is no average. The American suite likes your area. The European suite does not. That's the way the mofo cookie crumbles. And no slight to you. But PA posters should be in the Philly forum. Been saying it for years. You DO NOT live in the Mid Atlantic. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Canadian ensembles shift south as well. 00z Canadian and 18z Euro ensembles scarily alike. We lock? 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Deck Pic said: Assigning an outlier model run that everyone tossed the same weight as a juggernaut that is consistent with other guidance is a silly way to approach these runs. You don't take a AAA player and Barry Bonds steroid era, add them together and divide by 2 isnt that what the model blend model does...takes the elite model and puts them the same blender with the crap models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, clskinsfan said: What average? There is no average. The American suite likes your area. The European suite does not. That's the way the mofo cookie crumbles. And no slight to you. But PA posters should be in the Philly forum. Been saying it for years. You DO NOT live in the Mid Atlantic. that forum is dead though....like Ron Rivera draft picks 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Assigning an outlier model run that everyone tossed the same weight as a juggernaut that is consistent with other guidance is a silly way to approach these runs. You don't take a AAA player and Barry Bonds steroid era, add them together and divide by 2 There’s multiple models showing a bunch of different outcomes you can’t call one an outlier. Gfs is most north, ukmet most south with cmc and euro somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: What average? There is no average. The American suite likes your area. The European suite does not. That's the way the mofo cookie crumbles. And no slight to you. But PA posters should be in the Philly forum. Been saying it for years. You DO NOT live in the Mid Atlantic. That’s why there’s called a thing the NWS called the NBM. Blend of the models. And I live like 2 mins over the Maryland line I’m not going to post in the Philly forum thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Ji said: isnt that what the model blend model does...takes the elite model and puts them the same blender with the crap models? model blends and multi-physics ensembles are the worst thing thought up by the NWP community in the last 20 years. It's the worst possible way of addressing model error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: We had two 3-6" events like 60 hours apart last winter. Snow on snow. That was fun because we went from close to nothing to a more robust storm twice. This time we've been watching it for a week+, it's fun to know something is coming (and hurts so much more when we get the big shaft) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: We had two 3-6" events like 60 hours apart last winter. Snow on snow. The I-66 corridor and north had those, from CHO south? Not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Euro ens. 0z top 18z bottom. Includes .5-1” from tomorrow in the northern areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, T. August said: Euro ens. 0z top 18z bottom. Includes .5-1” from tomorrow in the northern areas. RIC almost doubled their totals. Definite southward shift in means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: How many minutes is the cut off? 15 seconds? 30 Seconds? It doesnt matter. YOU DO NOT live in the Mid Atlantic. Sorry I need to know the rate of speed in order to process this information. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 00z EPS snow mean was a definite south movement, agreement with 00z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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