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The January 5/6 Thing


stormtracker
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The Canadian is what I expect that kinda upstairs look to result in. There's still a formidable cold dome and associated confluence being driven into by the s/w. Yes its potent on these runs this evening, but it actually can result in a solid CAD wedge, which the GFS is notorious for not representing well. The Euro, GGEM, NAM, and Icon thermals were all pretty solid at 0z. 

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1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said:

GFS is hammered and needs to go to bed. The Euro will hold serve. It has been consistent while the gfs has taken bullseye from North Carolina to southern PA.


.

GFS is not alone though. It has all the American suite plus the German's on its side. Euro and Canadians are on the other side. 

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

That’s wild! 1.5-2.3” of sleet. I’ve seen almost 4” when I lived in CT and it was absolutely epic! 

President's Day 2 back in 2003 , measured half inch of snow followed by 7 inches of pure sleet down here - in western Albemarle county then... We didn't get the huge snow totals like just to our north got...

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1 minute ago, Jrlg1181 said:

President's Day 2 back in 2003 , measured half inch of snow followed by 7 inches of pure sleet down here - in western Albemarle county then... We didn't get the huge snow totals like just to our north got...

It was insane. And I actually dont think I would hate a sleet bomb with the cold that is coming. I could slide down my front yard every day to my car. 

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8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

As far as recent 1-5 day verification performance goes:

500mb heights: Euro is top, CMC very close second, GFS distant third

850mb temps: Euro top, CMC and GFS are about the same

Did not check ensembles. 

I know these things matter and factor in, but my thing with the GFS is that I think it is just particularly bad with east coast snowstorms.  It does really well in a lot of other areas I know.  For all I know it might be the gold standard for certain important energy metrics.  But east coast snowstorms - It scores a win here and there, but It can never get its act together for very long.

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10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

As far as recent 1-5 day verification performance goes:

500mb heights: Euro is top, CMC very close second, GFS distant third

850mb temps: Euro top, CMC and GFS are about the same

Did not check ensembles. 

GFS is usually just bad in -NAO/+PNA patterns.  The fast Pac has probably prevented it from verifying even worse as it might be playing into its bias somewhat but usually the blockier the pattern is the more likely the CMC/Euro are going to be better than the GFS and its been that way for awhile

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Hmm.  Interesting

What’s interesting is that GFS performance really nosedives on some specific periods (1-2 days) and then gets back in line with the CMC and Euro, which have smaller dips. I haven’t checked, but my hunch is that the GFS struggles mightily with highly dynamic storms and/or major pattern shifts.  Would have to do some reanalysis to back this up, but it’s getting late :) 

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1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

What’s interesting is that GFS performance really nosedives on some specific periods (1-2 days) and then gets back in line with the CMC and Euro, which have smaller dips. I haven’t checked, but my hunch is that the GFS struggles mightily with highly dynamic storms and/or major pattern shifts.  Would have to do some reanalysis to back this up, but it’s getting late :) 

You have a good hour before the euro comes out.  Plenty of time for reanalysis while we wait.  

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You can tell it's been a while since everyone has tracked a real dynamic storm around these parts - these model battles are half the fun. 

Quite literally a day ago - the GFS has the shortwave strung out and open and now we're looking at a 2 contour closed off low at H5 before the transfer to the coast. That's a considerable amount of variability within the ML evolution within a 24-36 hour window. It's going to happen. 

Until the CMC/Euro/Ukie camp begins to show a similar shift in regards to strength + ML warm nose - I will side with the models who have not wavered much over the last day or so versus the one playing catch up. GFS could definitely catch a win here, but there's no need to freak out about an event starting in 72 hours. 

Side Note: I am wondering if a couple inches up north (Metro into PA) with staying power into Sunday could help bring things down a degree or two at the sfc. I am noticing a band of slightly cooler temps along wherever the GFS sets up its maxima for tomorrow's squalls. It's slight but we'll take the help.

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2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

What’s interesting is that GFS performance really nosedives on some specific periods (1-2 days) and then gets back in line with the CMC and Euro, which have smaller dips. I haven’t checked, but my hunch is that the GFS struggles mightily with highly dynamic storms and/or major pattern shifts.  Would have to do some reanalysis to back this up, but it’s getting late :) 

Well I will admit that I do love when mets are willing to toss the GFS.

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