Buddy1987 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Nam is the Nam but I will be interested to see what it shows with CAD after seeing the Canadians output from last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Doesn't seem to matter what models do for me lol. Same outcome. Getting interested in the zr. Lots of pines on the mountains and hills here. Could look pretty cool iced up after an inch of snow at best. Not that it makes any damm difference but I'm rooting for @stormtracker, @Deck Pic, and all the other folks who literally get edged every damn storm. Make sure you rub it in REAL good if it happens 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 17 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Nam is the Nam but I will be interested to see what it shows with CAD after seeing the Canadians output from last night. I hope we can get a couple of inches of snow before the flip to ice. If so, it will definitely stick around a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Euro ticked south slightlyGot a cousin who lives in Cabin John so I am closely monitoring this for her Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Nam is the Nam but I will be interested to see what it shows with CAD after seeing the Canadians output from last night. The 0z Canadian tracks the primary low further north than current runs of the GFS and Euro. Part of the reason has to do with that shortwave tracking southeastward in southern Canada I mentioned in an earlier post- look where the CMC has that NS energy as the storm is approaching. Notably further north than other guidance at that point. Results in weaker confluence and allows the low to come further north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, CAPE said: The 0z Canadian tracks the primary low further north than current runs of the GFS and Euro. Part of the reason has to do with that shortwave tracking southeastward in southern Canada I mentioned in an earlier post- look where the CMC has that NS energy as the storm is approaching. Notably further north than other guidance at that point. Results in weaker confluence and allows the low to come further north. Looks more like it closes off over Indiana, but with flatter ridging ahead under confluence that seems stronger and more south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 8 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: I hope we can get a couple of inches of snow before the flip to ice. If so, it will definitely stick around a while. Me too man. Unfortunately I think we’re working against the tide here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Getting interested in the zr. It looks really bad out towards Roanoke and the southern Shenandoah Valley. I hope they get a thump of snow up front to make it easier to clear the roads. Edited to add amazing how inside 90 hours the GFS starts to get a clue. Euro has been rock solid for days at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Looks more like it closes off over Indiana, but with flatter ridging ahead under confluence that seems stronger and more south? That's the way I would interpret it if you're referring to the GFS. The 6z Euro actually partially phases a piece of that NS energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 40 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Good luck ya’ll - not gonna contribute much to this thread since I’ll be in Margaritaville. Leave some snow for when I get back, please. Well done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 If the 50/50 weakens it will cut. The 06z ECM actually shifts the 50/50 slightly west and slightly increases ne confluence , hence the slight southward shift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 15 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Me too man. Unfortunately I think we’re working against the tide here. We gotta wait until the real cold comes and bullies southward over the next 1-2 weeks. It's probably a bit of a bonus check getting any winter wx on the front side of this impending cold period. Ens means D10+ look half decent for southern storm. Unfortunately we probably have to root for a Miller B or slider of sorts that people north of us won't like too much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Here’s your end of the run NAMerson 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 To me, NAM looks very close to ECMWF at 84, but that's just the surface, which is all I know how to look at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 WB 12Z NBM. (Note not kuchera so this is probably underdone.) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Check out those DPs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Question: I've seen at least two references to dry slot. Where/when does this happen? Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, J.Mike said: Question: I've seen at least two references to dry slot. Where/when does this happen? Thx. Are you asking specific to modeling for this storm or is that a general question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, J.Mike said: Question: I've seen at least two references to dry slot. Where/when does this happen? Thx. https://lukemweather.blogspot.com/2011/02/dry-slot-blizzard-killer.html https://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/108/index.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 10 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Check out those DPs Precipitate water looks like a nice injection incoming too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Are you asking specific to modeling for this storm or is that a general question? A wintry mix will continue through Monday until a dry slot can squeeze its way northeastward along the Blue Ridge as the system departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 A dry slot is sort of a loose term to describe an area that is less hospitable to precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Time to see if the ICON gets a clue of what’s going to happen with this one. Has wavered a fair bit but 6z wasn’t too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Time to see if the ICON gets a clue of what’s going to happen with this one. Has wavered a fair bit but 6z wasn’t too bad. Stronger SW in the plains and a little bump north of confluence so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Icon is north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Maybe a 50 Mile shift of the heavy band, from about Nothern Stafford up through DC and into MD at 1 am Monday. Dryslot by 7 with Snow into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6"+ from DCA north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 More coastal influence once it transfers to the coast. 991 off the Jersey Coastline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Looks like a thump to mix to dry slot verbatim. Hard to tell between 90 and 96 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 That's not bad https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500hv&rh=2025010212&fh=102&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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