The January 5/6 Thing

[stormtracker]

So, here we are...12z runs are approaching.  

So far, now the GFS is "north" of Euro.   Either solution is still good for most of us., but of course we're gonna all sweat up until like 3 hours after the event.

Some solutions have a Sunday night start time now, so I figure it's time to get the ball rolling.   We all should know the drill by now...keep the banter to a minimum,  Mods are gonna be vicious in tightening this thread up, so if you see your posts disappearing, probably should be more focused and on topic.   I'm one to talk, but I at least try harder.  Mostly.  

Let's reel this in. 

 

*If things go left during 12z, @WxUSAF told me to start this thread rn.

[LeesburgWx]

Any 6z Euro maps?

[IronTy]

Euro ticked south slightly

[WxUSAF]

@mappy I like seeing euro back to “where is started”. If we get a normal north shift in the last 72 hours, that puts the metro corridor right in the central swath. And you know the northern end of that where ratios are maximized. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Euro ticked south slightly

I like this. Gives the DC metro a bit of wiggle room

[IronTy]

Just now, Terpeast said:

I like this. Gives the DC metro a bit of wiggle room

Even SoMD gets a little wiggle room so I'm loving it too.   Not often I get that. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Euro ticked south slightly

Excellent —> the 18z north blip is gone.  This is a really good map for us.  No temp issues, don’t have to sweat the last minute juice up/north creep. 

[IronTy]

ICON mostly agrees with the euro 

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@mappy I like seeing euro back to “where is started”. If we get a normal north shift in the last 72 hours, that puts the metro corridor right in the central swath. And you know the northern end of that where ratios are maximized. 

Could happen! I wasn't complaining about 18z Euro though  

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I like this. Gives the DC metro a bit of wiggle room

Yeah.  I like being in the middle of the model wiggles so far.  GFS norther, Euro South...gives me some wiggle room down here, altho we know the favored areas are going to score regardless of what the models show.

[BristowWx]

This also puts central VA in a better spot.  Should make some folks happy 

[CAPE]

The run to run variations on the storm track we are seeing on guidance are pretty minor, but for those on the N or S edge it can make a big difference. The primary feature to watch is the piece of vorticity rotating down in southern Canada overtop our approaching shortwave. Some runs it digs a bit more, or comes in right on top or out in front/just behind. The timing and degree of interaction between that energy and our storm will influence the exact track.

[TSSN+]

6z euro ens about the same as 0z just a bit drier over all the but the axis stays in same spot. 

[WxUSAF]

In the red! #blessed

 

[snowfan]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

In the red! #blessed

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

*If things go left during 12z, @WxUSAF told me to start this thread rn.

I volunteer to start the second thread to bring the storm back if this happens

[SnowenOutThere]

While we're between run I looked at the NAM and FWIW at the end of its run looks to have more confluence further southwest than the 6z GFS while also having a slightly stronger southwest. I assume this would turn out well for us but I'm also by far not the best person here to analyze it. 

[Terpeast]

15 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

While we're between run I looked at the NAM and FWIW at the end of its run looks to have more confluence further southwest than the 6z GFS while also having a slightly stronger southwest. I assume this would turn out well for us but I'm also by far not the best person here to analyze it. 

a stronger s/w (shortwave) with more confluence would create a stronger CAD situation, imho

[TSSN+]

21 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

While we're between run I looked at the NAM and FWIW at the end of its run looks to have more confluence further southwest than the 6z GFS while also having a slightly stronger southwest. I assume this would turn out well for us but I'm also by far not the best person here to analyze it. 

Looking at the Nam at range is probably not the best idea. Looking at the Nam at all probably not even a good idea haha. 

[mattie g]

After the Euro at 00z and 06z, I assume no one is saying that the trend is obvious now, as we read in so many places after 18z yesterday (and that "obvious trend" was anything but).

Let's be honest...the goalposts haven't really shifted much at all in the last couple days if you look at guidance overall. We all know that, at gametime, someone will be disappointed because they'll be just out of the max snow and someone will be thrilled because they'll get smacked when they didn't expect it. Based on history, we can assume the folks further north will be in the latter group, but there's no guarantee of that...and just because we see one run bump either way doesn't mean anything in regards to the final outcome until after the snow stops.

I think the most interesting part of this is the expected staying power of the snowpack. It's been quite a while since we've had snow that sticks around for a decent period of time, so it'll be pretty cool to experience that again (though I'm sure I'll be sick of it in a week).

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Looking at the Nam at range is probably not the best idea. Looking at the Nam at all probably not even a good idea haha. 

Nam is pretty good with temps, upstairs and down, when inside 24hrs. Occasionally, it gets it right at longer ranges. The problem is, it's unreliability keeps you guessing whether this is the time it'll be right at 48-60 hours or not. At least, that's my weenie assessment. 

[Solution Man]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

I like this. Gives the DC metro a bit of wiggle room

Love it

[Benjamn3]

I personally am hoping the warm nose isn’t much an issue here in SW VA. It’ll be interesting to see where the snow mix line ends up. I’m thinking just south of I64. Just depends how the CAD sets up. I’m also hoping it trends a little further south. I hate dealing with Ptype issues. 

[Benjamn3]

The latest from Blacksburg, hopefully they update frequently. 

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is increasing for a wintry mix of precipitation
lingering into Monday.

2) Arctic air will push temperatures further below normal during
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Monday could feature a plethora of precipitation types due to a
Miller B system tracking eastward across the Appalachian Mountains.
While the parent low dissipates in the mountains, a second area of
low pressure should develop across eastern North Carolina and head
offshore. A wintry mix will continue through Monday until a dry slot
can squeeze its way northeastward along the Blue Ridge as the system
departs. Although details still remain murky, the overall consensus
depicts rain spreading northward in parts of North Carolina and
Virginia where temperatures try to rise above freezing. However,
this milder air will have to fight against colder air near the
surface that will keep a mix of freezing rain and sleet in play.

[SnowenOutThere]

16 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Looking at the Nam at range is probably not the best idea. Looking at the Nam at all probably not even a good idea haha. 

Yeah it was mainly just an exercise in having too much time on my hands, besides we all know the only model to really take seriously is the CFS

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6Z Euro is pretty cold for DC still.  Looks like mid 20s for most of the time the precip is falling.  That + heaviest precip before sunrise + low sun angle should mean we accumulate pretty efficiently.

[Random Chaos]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Yeah it was mainly just an exercise in having too much time on my hands, besides we all know the only model to really take seriously is the CFS

This is when I really miss the CRAS model. Made bored hours waiting for the next good model more interesting!

[mattie g]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

6Z Euro is pretty cold for DC still.  Looks like mid 20s for most of the time the precip is falling.  That + heaviest precip before sunrise + low sun angle should mean we accumulate pretty efficiently.

It's cold through the whole column, as well...so cold that DC doesn't even flirt with mixing. I can't help but feel that cold is a little overdone, but the proverbial wiggle room is there.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

We need a slight tick north!

No, just moisten things up. Then everyone wins.

[NorthArlington101]

Good luck ya’ll - not gonna contribute much to this thread since I’ll be in Margaritaville. Leave some snow for when I get back, please.