January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Shad]

snowing new orleans, florida panhandle to NC at 207, lol

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

CMC progression is still completely different. Sometimes it does stuff like this outside day 5-6, but man that’s pretty stark difference. CMC probably leads to a much larger event if that energy comes E after the N/S races ahead

It would be a few days after the 20th though


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Yesterday this tendency (and duality of options) showed up in the EPS snow plots.  There were smaller hits around Jan 20 and larger ones around the 21-22 for the members that had a slower more amplified solution with that wave.  

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Shad said:

snowing new orleans, florida panhandle to NC at 207, lol

That's usually not a good omen for us, but I guess we'll see

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Shad said:

snowing new orleans, florida panhandle to NC at 207, lol

There have been very few permutations among all the ensembles and op runs that have a hit from both the 20th and 22nd threats...They are linked.  If more energy comes out with the wave on the 20th the 22nd is likely weaker and south.  If more energy holds back at the tail of the trough, the 22nd becomes a more amplified wave and a threat but the 20th is likely nothing.   It's likely one or the other.  There is a narrow thread the needle balance of energy that could lead to two hits but its not the most likely outcome.  

[Conway7305]

Congrats OBX, lol 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

That's usually not a good omen for us, but I guess we'll see

Yeah, thought the same.  Trof may be positively tilted for it to get up to us

[psuhoffman]

Historic snowstorm for the deep south.  We will see... 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, thought the same.  Trof may be positively tilted for it to get up to us

TPV sitting in Ontario and Quebec is not going to let anything climb the coast. Need it either well west or east. 

[Shad]

well at least Myrtle Beach gets a foot   lol

[stormtracker]

Am I looking at the wrong model?  What hour yall at?  Because on the CMC we get it 

[mitchnick]

Gem faked us out

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's usually not a good omen for us, but I guess we'll see

The GFS miss on the 22nd has me at 8 degrees while it's blizzarding on the NC coast.  That usually doesn't happen.

CMC is a hit and looks like a decent one for the 22nd. 

 

 

[mitchnick]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Am I looking at the wrong model?  What hour yall at?

Lol nice hit with a 2nd gasp

[WxUSAF]

Yeah I’ll sell on the 1989 redux New Orleans to Charleston HECS, but we’ll see 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Lol nice hit with a 2nd gasp

Goofy ass evolution 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Lol nice hit with a 2nd gasp

Where's this foot at MB on the CMC.  I'm so confused...lol

[Shad]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Where's this foot at MB on the CMC.  I'm so confused...lol

Talking about GFS

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Where's this foot at MB on the CMC.  I'm so confused...lol

The historic storm for the south being referenced is on the GFS.

[Heisy]

There have been very few permutations among all the ensembles and op runs that have a hit from both the 20th and 22nd threats...They are linked.  If more energy comes out with the wave on the 20th the 22nd is likely weaker and south.  If more energy holds back at the tail of the trough, the 22nd becomes a more amplified wave and a threat but the 20th is likely nothing.   It's likely one or the other.  There is a narrow thread the needle balance of energy that could lead to two hits but its not the most likely outcome.  

This is a good post, the fantasy progression is basically the 12z GFS, but where the pattern leads to that second event coming up the coast.

My money is on the energy coming E for an event on the 20th because that’s where the euro is generally at, but we’ll see


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[bncho]

I'm glad that some of the better models (GEM, ECMWF) are showing better results (snowstorms for the Mid-Atlantic).

[stormtracker]

Just now, Shad said:

Talking about GFS

 

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

The historic storm for the south being referenced is on the GFS.

Oh shit.

CMC gets us up to 4-8...might be including some sleet tho

[psuhoffman]

Inject the GGEM right into my veins please 

[Heisy]

Am I looking at the wrong model?  What hour yall at?  Because on the CMC we get it 

Yes but it’s a different progression where the energy gets stuck out west. It’s the same wave, but a couple days later


.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gem faked us out

was it overrunning? 

lol just kidding 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

was it overrunning? 

lol just kidding 

No, but my BP is! Lol

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

TPV sitting in Ontario and Quebec is not going to let anything climb the coast. Need it either well west or east. 

GGEM has that centered back near Hudson bay with a block over the top, more of an AO block than NAO but with a TPV over Hudson that's actually a really good configuration.  And it leads to snow.  Let's just hope the GFS is wrong with parking the TPV right on top of us, but it's probably good that its only the worst model doing that right now.  

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

No, but my BP is! Lol

Mitch BP: Hr 240/hr 180 

[Terpeast]

Just now, mitchnick said:

No, but my BP is! Lol

It’s gonna be a long week. Maybe not a bad idea to sneak in a checkup with the doc? 

(I’m actually gonna do the same…)

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This is a good post, the fantasy progression is basically the 12z GFS, but where the pattern leads to that second event coming up the coast.

My money is on the energy coming E for an event on the 20th because that’s where the euro is generally at, but we’ll see


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It's all on the table... where the TPV sets up, where the block over the top of it is (new wrinkle) and how the energy in the flow underneath interacts and ejects.  And those are way too many moving linked parts for the guidance to get this nailed down at any kind of long leads.  This is more of an inside 72 hours kind of setup, which I know is frustrating but it is what it is.  

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

It’s gonna be a long week. Maybe not a bad idea to sneak in a checkup with the doc? 

(I’m actually gonna do the same…)

Funny.  Mine is Wednesday, no joke.