January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Terpeast]

48 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Better positioned short wave, it slowed it down like the OP was going for at 144…




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Pretty big changes. Lots to resolve yet. This is going to be one of those cases where models won’t have anything pinned down until inside 96 hours or so

[Eskimo Joe]

Euro has a decent shortwave trying to bust south from the arctic around the HR 168 - 174 timeframe. Wonder if that is gunking up anything closer to us?

[Heisy]

I’m still flying blind. I don’t know what we’re looking for. You mean the vort out west over nrn cali needs to be spaced further west/slower? 

The gif map I posted is the actual shortwave that’s hitting us.

Here is it earlier, look how the 6z run has a slower wave, better spacing




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[psuhoffman]

One change has been a trend towards one more round of -nao around day 7. This perhaps increases the chances of a bigger storm but it also means it would take a larger amplification in the flow to get a storm at all. This would apply to the Jan 20-22 period. The -epo TNH still looks to take over after that. 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

The gif map I posted is the actual shortwave that’s hitting us.

Here is it earlier, look how the 6z run has a slower wave, better spacing




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Got it.   So around hours 138 or so I should know where this is going.  Hopefully.

[Heisy]

And then here is the 6z euro vs 00z, 00z just had no spacing between the front and the wave turning the corner. 6z euro resembled the euro Ai. Still need some work but it’s close




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[WxUSAF]

RE: ensemble snow means that @psuhoffman showed, I believe just before and around New Years we had similar totals advertised in the D7-14 period also when we didn’t have a defined wave yet (6th was one of a few scenarios). That worked out well. 

[stormtracker]

11 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I love what we do here when a clearly inferior model shows something we like, we put up a phony preface "It's the _____ but..." just to let ourselves off the scientific hook and then share it anyway, lol

Probably because it's data amongst data/model hungry geeks and it's about weather on a weather board?  Doesn't mean it's a good model (it's not), but when used to compared it to actual good models and it's showing the same thing.....

That would be my guess. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

15 minutes ago, Heisy said:

And then here is the 6z euro vs 00z, 00z just had no spacing between the front and the wave turning the corner. 6z euro resembled the euro Ai. Still need some work but it’s close




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6z Euro AI is a nice hit for Monday.  Solid Advisory event for us.

[stormtracker]

25 minutes ago, Heisy said:

And then here is the 6z euro vs 00z, 00z just had no spacing between the front and the wave turning the corner. 6z euro resembled the euro Ai. Still need some work but it’s close




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I think the Icon is doing what we want?

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

RE: ensemble snow means that @psuhoffman showed, I believe just before and around New Years we had similar totals advertised in the D7-14 period also when we didn’t have a defined wave yet (6th was one of a few scenarios). That worked out well. 

It's always a little risky when guidance has a threat window but has yet to identify a singular wave as "the one".  That mean looks great but its from 3 possible hits in a 7 day window, each of which is only like a 30% probability of being anything, which is totally fine and normal for that range, but our odds of an actual hit go up significantly once guidance locks into a singular synoptic threat and more than half the ensembles and op runs start showing a hit with that specific wave.  We just aren't inside that range yet though.  For now this is about as good as it gets IMO in terms of an identified window of opportunity.  We still don't know if its the thing around the 20th or the 22nd or that thing way out around the 25th...but we have several shots in a defined window and just have to hope as the details come into focus one of them becomes a legit threat.  

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I think the Icon is doing what we want?

Always a scary thought.

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Always a scary thought.

Prob gonna go too far S and E after 180, but it's there

[stormtracker]

GFS is a little wester/slower with the vort so far

[stormtracker]

So, it has some light frozen over us at 7pm Sunday, but doesn't look terribly organized 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

So, it has some light frozen over us at 7pm Sunday, but doesn't look terribly organized 

It looks pretty good on Pivotal!

[stormtracker]

ok, better moisture over the area 3z-6z Monday, but its a really broad area of low pressure to our east that races off.  Not bad

[mitchnick]

Can we just hold this Gfs run for this event 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

It looks pretty good on Pivotal!

Colder than 6z

[mitchnick]

2-4+"

[Shad]

That Sunday night wave has really moved south quite a bit over the last several runs

[stormtracker]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Can we just hold this Gfs run for this ecent?

I'd take this run for sure. Cute lil 2-4

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So, it has some light frozen over us at 7pm Sunday, but doesn't look terribly organized 

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

ok, better moisture over the area 3z-6z Monday, but its a really broad area of low pressure to our east that races off.  Not bad

 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

[psuhoffman]

And before anyone screams about "Kuchera" I checked...the ratios are realistic.  Actually slightly less than 10-1 along 95 and about 13-1 in the higher elevation areas further from the rain/snow line.  This seems very reasonable.  

[Heisy]

CMC and icon are still in the same camp of dragging the shortwave really far W and slower. Not saying they’re wrong, but idk. This is way different for Day 5-6.

The GFS is more aligned with the EPS and Euro progression fwiw




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[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

CMC and icon are still in the same camp of dragging the shortwave really far W and slower. Not saying they’re wrong, but idk. This is way different for Day 5-6.

The GFS is more aligned with the EPS and Euro progression fwiw




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Wow they aren't even on the same planet.  

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

CMC and icon are still in the same camp of dragging the shortwave really far W and slower. Not saying they’re wrong, but idk. This is way different for Day 5-6.

The GFS is more aligned with the EPS and Euro progression fwiw




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CMC looks like it may be good for middle of next week

[Shad]

looks slightly better at 198 compared to 6z

[Heisy]

And before anyone screams about "Kuchera" I checked...the ratios are realistic.  Actually slightly less than 10-1 along 95 and about 13-1 in the higher elevation areas further from the rain/snow line.  This seems very reasonable.  

CMC progression is still completely different. Sometimes it does stuff like this outside day 5-6, but man that’s pretty stark difference. CMC probably leads to a much larger event if that energy comes E after the N/S races ahead

It would be a few days after the 20th though


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