January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[LP08]

Gfs holding more back out west.  A step in the right direction.

[mitchnick]

Gem and Gfs are on different planets at 150hrs.

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Gfs holding more back out west.  A step in the right direction.

To quote something I heard my first wintee here: "And there she cuts!" Lol

[psuhoffman]

It would be funny after days of everyone worrying about suppression it’s ends up a cutter. Lol 

But not surprising. In an epo driven pattern with no blocking a NW track is the way more likely fail. 

[midatlanticweather]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It would be funny after days of everyone worrying about suppression it’s ends up a cutter. Lol 

Would it though? 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It would be funny after days of everyone worrying about suppression it’s ends up a cutter. Lol 

But not surprising. In an epo driven pattern with no blocking a NW track is the way more likely fail. 

I can accept the fail path better  It's just something annoying about missing south that I find annoying!

[stormtracker]

CMC remarkably consistent. Rain as is for most of us, but this far out, I'd ride with it.

[WVclimo]

Don’t see a 1050mb high in Indiana very often.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

CMC remarkably consistent

Oddly weak on qpf

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Oddly weak on qpf

NS wave over the top running interference 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

NS wave over the top running interference 

Oy...that's one other thing I hope isn't a theme this year 

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

With the H5 keeps changing with every single run, I'm kinda stoked.  It's like playing the slots.  I think we are going to get all sevens between now and the 16th.

Our snow regime has produced 

[mitchnick]

Ukie has a storm at around 162hrs  that is slow to getvits act together and warm for cities. Nothing big.

[mitchnick]

Gfs has the now "near" end of the run significant snowstorm. 

[psuhoffman]

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Gfs has the now "near" end of the run significant snowstorm. 

EPS has a bit of a signal there now too 

[fujiwara79]

these ensembles often show a foot of snowfall out near the gulf stream.  Somehow I don't think these snow accumulation algorithms account for the fact that the water temp is like 60 degrees out there.

[mitchnick]

6z Gfs moved the slp toward the coast for Sunday and hits west and north lightly. Wag is it continues south and east. Euro basically lost it at 0z.

[BristowWx]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Gfs moved the slp toward the coast for Sunday and hits west and north lightly. Wag is it continues south and east. Euro basically lost it at 0z.

Hopefully something pops to track.  It makes the week more fun. 

[jayyy]

Oy...that's one other thing I hope isn't a theme this year <_>

Unfortunately that’s the risk in a nina. We’ll be fighting that NS all winter

[Heisy]

6z Gfs moved the slp toward the coast for Sunday and hits west and north lightly. Wag is it continues south and east. Euro basically lost it at 0z.

As always, GFS will be last to figure things out.

I thought the 6z euro spaced the wave out better to allow for something to develop. Tough to say for sure though. Euro Ai continues to stay consistent.


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[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, Heisy said:

As always, GFS will be last to figure things out.

I thought the 6z euro spaced the wave out better to allow for something to develop. Tough to say for sure though. Euro Ai continues to stay consistent.


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AI is weak, dry sauce for next weekend.  Except for the Canadian, the advertised overrunning pattern appears off the table, so who knows what's next. 6z Gefs got cooler and is looking more like the Eps by keeping it cold thru the end of the run.

[Heisy]

AI is weak, dry sauce for next weekend.  Except for the Canadian, the advertised overrunning pattern appears off the table, so who knows what's next. 6z Gefs got cooler and is looking more like the Eps by keeping it cold thru the end of the run.

6z euro Ai looks decent, I’d take it, it looks like the OP at 144 so safe to assume OP probably would have had something similar




.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI is weak, dry sauce for next weekend.  Except for the Canadian, the advertised overrunning pattern appears off the table, so who knows what's next. 6z Gefs got cooler and is looking more like the Eps by keeping it cold thru the end of the run.

I mean for most of the last 8 years we would have killed to have a 10 day snow mean (days 6-16) look like these. But ok. 

[Heisy]

Better positioned short wave, it slowed it down like the OP was going for at 144…




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[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I mean for most of the last 8 years we would have killed to have a 10 day snow mean (days 6-16) look like these. But ok. 

Exactly where did I  say anything negative about the ensembles?  Where?

I said the overrunning pattern, except for the Canadian, "appears off the table." I didn't say that meant snow chances were bad. How could you have read that into my statement? 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Exactly where did I  say anything negative about the ensembles?  Where?

I said the overrunning pattern, except for the Canadian, "appears off the table." I didn't say that meant snow chances were bad. How could you have read that into my statement? 

My misunderstanding is because most of that snow on those ensembles I posted is from overrunning but you said “I guess the overrunning is off the table”. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

My misunderstanding is because most of that snow on those ensembles I posted is from overrunning but you said “I guess the overrunning is off the table”. 

Our definition of overrunning patterns apparently differ, but the ensembles look fine. 

[stormtracker]

36 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Better positioned short wave, it slowed it down like the OP was going for at 144…




.

I’m still flying blind. I don’t know what we’re looking for. You mean the vort out west over nrn cali needs to be spaced further west/slower? 

[stormtracker]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Our definition of overrunning patterns apparently differ, but the ensembles look fine. 

Overrunning?  What’s that?  
 

Been a while seen we had a good event.