January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I think some are imposing the trends from recent and current blocking regime onto the next epo tnh pattern. I get it. I do. But that’s a mistake. Things are much more likely to trend north in the coming pattern than they were with a -3 AO NAO block and a huge arse cutoff 50/50 spinning southeast of ideal. 

Funny how today the GEPS/GEFS went crazy SER D14-16 and the EPS totally abandoned it and went back to more of a trof in the east

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Clearly, it's a lower Eastern Shore/Tidewater VA year, at least the models seem to think so. In a Niña, with SBY at over a foot, it's plausible too. 

Agree. I should have just sold my house in the Shenandoah Valley and moved there permanently.

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Does the cold push overwhelm the pattern?

Didn't look. Busy cursing out my law school buddy in Salisbury. 

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Funny how today the GEPS/GEFS went crazy SER D14-16 and the EPS totally abandoned it and went back to more of a trof in the east

Euro weeklies do have the SER appearing starting the week of 1/27.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202501120000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501200000

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro weeklies do have the SER appearing starting the week of 1/27.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202501120000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202501200000

I wouldn’t be so quick to call it a return of the SE ridge because models try to default to canonical enso looks, which hasn’t been working out this year. Maybe it will in Feb for once. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I wouldn’t be so quick to call it a return of the SE ridge because models try to default to canonical enso looks, which hasn’t been working out this year. Maybe it will in Feb for once. 

I agree on the continued failed attempts, but I think AN comes around 2/10, just not that much AN.  

[winter_warlock]

7 hours ago, mitchnick said:

In addition to a decent snow, Canadian looks like this at day 10. 

Wow!!!!

[winter_warlock]

39 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Funny how today the GEPS/GEFS went crazy SER D14-16 and the EPS totally abandoned it and went back to more of a trof in the east

So do we trust the GEFS/GEPS or the EPS?

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

So do we trust the GEFS/GEPS or the EPS?

I'm not SnowGoose, but 18z GEFS did take a step back from 12z with the SER. It's there, but much weaker. 

[Blizzard of 93]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'm not SnowGoose, but 18z GEFS did take a step back from 12z with the SER. It's there, but much weaker. 

18z GEFS snow amount stepped back up too.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18z GEFS snow amount stepped back up too.

Decent boost near the end. Gfs/Gefs seem convinced with a significant storm around the 1/27-28.

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Decent boost near the end. Gfs/Gefs seem convinced with a significant storm around the 1/27-28.

Storms & rumors of storms!

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Decent boost near the end. Gfs/Gefs seem convinced with a significant storm around the 1/27-28.

With the H5 keeps changing with every single run, I'm kinda stoked.  It's like playing the slots.  I think we are going to get all sevens between now and the 16th.

[Kevin Reilly]

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

With the H5 keeps changing with every single run, I'm kinda stoked.  It's like playing the slots.  I think we are going to get all sevens between now and the 16th.

Let's Go!!

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

With the H5 keeps changing with every single run, I'm kinda stoked.  It's like playing the slots.  I think we are going to get all sevens between now and the 16th.

SHHHHHH (don't say it out loud )

[mitchnick]

18z AI still has a storm for next Sunday, just develops a little differently and has precip heavier east. Doesn't look heavy west of I95, but probably a moderate event. Just too tough to figure with any real precision qpf amounts with the freebie maps.

It does show a miss of the coast with the 2nd event that hit se va/md hardest, just like 6z and 12z.

Better maps out on TT soon.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z AI still has a storm for next Sunday, just develops a little differently and has precip heavier east. Doesn't look heavy west of I95, but probably a moderate event. Just too tough to figure with any real precision qpf amounts with the freebie maps.

It does show a miss of the coast with the 2nd event that hit se va/md hardest, just like 6z and 12z.

Better maps out on TT soon.

Just out on TT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011218&fh=186

[Heisy]

Looks like a solid 3-6” event on that run. Shortwave sharpened.


.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Just out on TT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011218&fh=186

Looks like a nice event.  Would be another accumulating snow on the front end of an arctic dump. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

18z GFS and 12z Euro look remarkably similar for the January 22 event.  

[TSSN+]

[stormtracker]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Just out on TT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025011218&fh=186

Don't see what yall like about the the AI

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Don't see what yall like about the the AI

Supposedly has better 500mb verification numbers than operational. 

[Ji]

18z AI still has a storm for next Sunday, just develops a little differently and has precip heavier east. Doesn't look heavy west of I95, but probably a moderate event. Just too tough to figure with any real precision qpf amounts with the freebie maps.
It does show a miss of the coast with the 2nd event that hit se va/md hardest, just like 6z and 12z.
Better maps out on TT soon.

Ignore the ai model precip maps. They are way too generous and overly widespread

[Terpeast]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Supposedly has better 500mb verification numbers than operational. 

Not really true, sorry

edit: sometimes it performs better in days 1-5, equal in 6-10, same or worse in 11-15… lots of spikes and valleys and there’s no way to know when it’s right or way off. I’ll give it credit for the 1/6 storm which it did well on, but it did poorly for 1/11 at D6+ because it overpredicted the cold after the first storm. Best used as a comparison tool as a way to hold the operational “accountable”, or as another ensemble member. 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I wouldn’t be so quick to call it a return of the SE ridge because models try to default to canonical enso looks, which hasn’t been working out this year. Maybe it will in Feb for once. 

Exactly. Enso weighed heavily .

[mitchnick]

54 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Not really true, sorry

edit: sometimes it performs better in days 1-5, equal in 6-10, same or worse in 11-15… lots of spikes and valleys and there’s no way to know when it’s right or way off. I’ll give it credit for the 1/6 storm which it did well on, but it did poorly for 1/11 at D6+ because it overpredicted the cold after the first storm. Best used as a comparison tool as a way to hold the operational “accountable”, or as another ensemble member. 

You don't have to apologize.  I hate the effin Euro. Always overforecasts snow imby the run before start-time. Happened twice this year. It's hit or miss like every other model.

That said, there are verification stats at this link down the bottom of the page prepared by the Euro folks.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]}

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You don't have to apologize.  I hate the effin Euro. Always overforecasts snow imby the run before start-time. Happened twice this year. It's hit or miss like every other model.

That said, there are verification stats at this link down the bottom of the page prepared by the Euro folks.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]}

Yeah, their stats only compare the AIFS with the other AI models, but not the NWP models. I usually like to compare AI vs NWP of the same model family (Euro AI vs NWP, GFS AI vs NWP, etc). That’s where I got my assessment from. 

[LP08]

It’s the ICON but it looks loaded up at 180

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, LP08 said:

It’s the ICON but it looks loaded up at 180

I love what we do here when a clearly inferior model shows something we like, we put up a phony preface "It's the _____ but..." just to let ourselves off the scientific hook and then share it anyway, lol