January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Solution Man]

Good for now, it’s once again correcting towards Euro

[Maestrobjwa]

23 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

This looks familiar...what is this from? Twilight Zone or something else?

[mitchnick]

Clearly, it's a lower Eastern Shore/Tidewater VA year, at least the models seem to think so. In a Niña, with SBY at over a foot, it's plausible too. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This looks familiar...what is this from? Twilight Zone or something else?

Casablanca 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Clearly, it's a lower Eastern Shore/Tidewater VA year, at least the models seem to think so. In a Niña, with SBY at over a foot, it's plausible too. 

That's my only worry about this winter, tbh...especially after getting slightly fringed last week and it being better the further south you go. I wonder if we're a hair north for some of these things to reach us.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Clearly, it's a lower Eastern Shore/Tidewater VA year, at least the models seem to think so. In a Niña, with SBY at over a foot, it's plausible too. 

That run made me sick lol 

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Gotta love the GFS form a potential big one same time period that Euro had it today.




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We need a love emoji reaction. Can we make that happen? The storm, the emoji reaction would be a cool bonus.

[Heisy]

We need a love emoji reaction. Can we make that happen? The storm, the emoji reaction would be a cool bonus.

Once it’s inside 6 days lol. That run was a few ticks away from burying us with two events. All you can ask for is a chance. Most guidance is farther SE than the GFS showing for the 20th.


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[Blizzard of 93]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Clearly, it's a lower Eastern Shore/Tidewater VA year, at least the models seem to think so. In a Niña, with SBY at over a foot, it's plausible too. 

Of course, lock it in, congrats Shore!

Come on man, long way to go….

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This looks familiar...what is this from? Twilight Zone or something else?

Nope, the movie "Casablanca"!!!  Nothing like Twilight Zone! 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Once it’s inside 6 days lol. That run was a few ticks away from burying us with two events. All you can ask for is a chance. Most guidance is farther SE than the GFS showing for the 20th.


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Do you mean SE with the "main" low (that rains on us), or are you referring to what apparently might be a trailer that gives us some good snow?  I thought the general idea is that we'd get rain around the 19th and then possibly snow with a follow-up wave.  But I've only paid vague attention to the details here.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

That run made me sick lol 

The only thing we have going for us is there's time. Time to cry or time to win is the question. 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Of course, lock it in, congrats Shore!

Come on man, long way to go….

I said plausible, not guaranteed. 

[mitchnick]

Eastern NC gets hit again at 294hrs. Lol

[Blizzard of 93]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I said plausible, not guaranteed. 

GFS obviously playing catch up as it has ALL season 

[Ralph Wiggum]

17 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Once it’s inside 6 days lol. That run was a few ticks away from burying us with two events. All you can ask for is a chance. Most guidance is farther SE than the GFS showing for the 20th.


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We have fun in fantasy land even. Several big potentials coming up. 

[stormtracker]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The only thing we have going for us is there's time. Time to cry or time to win is the question. 

We’re gonna be fine.  I hope. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The only thing we have going for us is there's time. Time to cry or time to win is the question. 

You are leaning cold push and crying and have made that fairly clear. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

BTW, anyone know what the latest pdo index is?

 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You are leaning cold push and crying and have made that fairly clear. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

BTW, anyone know what the latest pdo index is?

 

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[Terpeast]

Its actually encouraging to see hits to the south of us, because models are likely overdoing the cold at range. When it gets closer, it’ll likely correct a bit warmer, and with it, the track may pull north. 

And btw, we really should be looking at the ensembles instead of op runs beyond 168 hrs. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We’re gonna be fine.  I hope. 

I think the first storm works out, but that 2nd storm wreaks of a miss to my SE. You're in better shape than me though.

[Kevin Reilly]

49 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's going to continue south in future runs because it's the Gfs. 18z vs 12z.

It’s moving back to what it showed at 6z

[TSSN+]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The only thing we have going for us is there's time. Time to cry or time to win is the question. 

Ya I’m sure it will change plenty.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS....lots of hits and misses....stay tuned!

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

It’s moving back to what it showed at 6z

Hopefully! Plus, Euro operational and AI show snow and Ukie has the storm with precip type still in question. 

[Blizzard of 93]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Hopefully! Plus, Euro operational and AI show snow and Ukie has the storm with precip type still in question. 

Let’s get the first chance & then go from there.

[jayyy]

Its actually encouraging to see hits to the south of us, because models are likely overdoing the cold at range. When it gets closer, it’ll likely correct a bit warmer, and with it, the track may pull north. 
And btw, we really should be looking at the ensembles instead of op runs beyond 168 hrs. 

Came here to say this. Especially using clown maps from long range OPs

[mitchnick]

Gefs don't support that big eastern/se storm on the operational. 

[psuhoffman]

49 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Its actually encouraging to see hits to the south of us, because models are likely overdoing the cold at range. When it gets closer, it’ll likely correct a bit warmer, and with it, the track may pull north. 

And btw, we really should be looking at the ensembles instead of op runs beyond 168 hrs. 

I think some are imposing the trends from recent and current blocking regime onto the next epo tnh pattern. I get it. I do. But that’s a mistake. Things are much more likely to trend north in the coming pattern than they were with a -3 AO NAO block and a huge arse cutoff 50/50 spinning southwest of ideal. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Gefs don't support that big eastern/se storm on the operational. 

Does the cold push overwhelm the pattern?