January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[psuhoffman]

I’m ok with the better models showing the better outcomes lol. 
 

The GFS seems to have fallen even more behind than it was after the ggem and euro made major core upgrades and then issued multiple updates to fine tune the new systems. We criticized the euro for its inconsistency after the initial core upgrade but subsequent fixes have made it significantly better and the gfs meanwhile doesn’t seem to have kept up in the last 5 years. The end result is the gfs is almost getting to the point of being relegated to “just for amusement” territory in my mind. Similar to the icon and jma. 

[mappy]

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

Wouldn’t have figured you were pretty much at the bottom of the list this year since you don’t bring it up in

every. f’ing. post.

Excuse me? Pretty sure you’ve confused me with someone else. 

[mitchnick]

Gefs still have a reasonable signal for the 19th-20th fwiw.

[dallen7908]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

They forecasted almost exactly what happened. There were a few localized spots in MD that jacked and got a few inches over the range but overall they nailed it. And there was a statement out specifying 2” per hour rates during rush hour!  People made really bad decisions and then looked for someone else to blame “why didn’t you stop me” which isn’t uncommon unfortunately 

I was in Seattle for the AMS meeting that week and recall that one of the lead CWG writers missed at least a half-day of the meeting because of the storm. 

[mitchnick]

Almost looks like PD2 at the end of the Gfs run...almost.

[Ralph Wiggum]

59 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS and CMC h5 maps are just so completely different at around 120 and after.  Kinda neat to see.  And of course they keep changing with each run.   There's gotta be a flush hit run coming at some point...right?

Generally a sign of a major pattern change when we see this type of disagreement. 

[mitchnick]

Ukie has a storm at 168hrs, but would be close on temps. 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&rh=2025011212&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, mappy said:

Excuse me? Pretty sure you’ve confused me with someone else. 

I think he was talking about someone else 

[ravensrule]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Almost looks like PD2 at the end of the Gfs run...almost.

Almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. 

[NorthArlington101]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m ok with the better models showing the better outcomes lol. 
 

The GFS seems to have fallen even more behind than it was after the ggem and euro made major core upgrades and then issued multiple updates to fine tune the new systems. We criticized the euro for its inconsistency after the initial core upgrade but subsequent fixes have made it significantly better and the gfs meanwhile doesn’t seem to have kept up in the last 5 years. The end result is the gfs is almost getting to the point of being relegated to “just for amusement” territory in my mind. Similar to the icon and jma. 

CMC/GGEM > GFS. I’ll beat the drum over and over even if no one hears me. Doesn’t mean I won’t just run with the snowiest outcome, but… 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Arriving from Siberia to your house soon.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1878439902720753747

Eric Webb @webberweather

 

<The brutally cold arctic air mass that enters the CONUS a week from now originates over Siberia about 10 days earlier & starts out at -30C to -40C.>

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mongolia has kept it up and still is.  We were predicted to get frigid once before and we got quite cold instead so let’s see if this batch hits us right on.  It looks like rollover cold which puts Dakotas at -30 for lows and is modified by about 30 when it gets here but that would still be extremely cold here, highs 15-20 and lows 0 to 5 

 

[Mikeymac5306]

Holy crap the end of that GFS run. It's fantasyland I know but good Lord! 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

CMC/GGEM > GFS. I’ll beat the drum over and over even if no one hears me. Doesn’t mean I won’t just run with the snowiest outcome, but… 

CMC/GEPS still has a cold bias, but it’s still verifying better than the GFS. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

CMC/GGEM > GFS. I’ll beat the drum over and over even if no one hears me. Doesn’t mean I won’t just run with the snowiest outcome, but… 

People point out every example of when the gem busted but the gfs is even worse. Not sure why the perception reality gap. 
 

ETA: plus examples of gem busts prior to their core upgrade ain’t really relevant 

[JVscotch]

Crazy cool how the NAO has continued to prove more negative as we get closer in time and now more blocking showing up around Greenland on all models so far for 12z.  The last few days it has seemed like we were losing the NAO to get EPO ridging but now maybe some NAO help too. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

CMC/GEPS still has a cold bias, but it’s still verifying better than the GFS. 

Gem has been very inconsistent in the longer range for a while, BUT not with this storm. That's 3 runs in a row showing the storm, twice as snow and once as rain. At that range, that's a very decent signal for something other than cold and dry.

[TSSN+]

Euro snow on 19th another storm brewing 22nd

[mappy]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think he was talking about someone else 

I hope so. Today was the first time I’ve even mentioned my total lol 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

I hope so. Today was the first time I’ve even mentioned my total lol 

You complain less than anyone else about snow. I’m almost positive he was referring to someone else. 

[Chris78]

I'll take the Cmc pre 240 hours and the gfs post 240.

That would be a January to remember 

[Weather Will]

My take lots of potential on the map in another week....patience young Jedi's...too early to tell if we will bullseye or whiff.... but with cold air aplenty we are in the game.

[ravensrule]

10 minutes ago, mappy said:

I hope so. Today was the first time I’ve even mentioned my total lol 

He was definitely talking about someone else. Do you know anyone in Monkton?. 

[ravensrule]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You complain less than anyone else about snow. I’m almost positive he was referring to someone else. 

I’m positive. 

[TSSN+]

I would just have to laugh if I’d verified like this, thankfully it won’t cause next run will be completely different.

 

[nj2va]

D10 on the Euro with a moderate hit DC and major hit central VA - temps in the single digits.  Fun times ahead!

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, frd said:

Arriving from Siberia to your house soon.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1878439902720753747

Eric Webb @webberweather

 

<The brutally cold arctic air mass that enters the CONUS a week from now originates over Siberia about 10 days earlier & starts out at -30C to -40C.>

 

 

 

 

 

 

That will definitely pop the southeast ridge and a storm track right up the Eastern Seaboard just hope not too close and even west of us changes afoot! 

[North Balti Zen]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You complain less than anyone else about snow. I’m almost positive he was referring to someone else. 

He definitely was. It was almost me. But I have FIVE POINT FOUR inches @mattie g so not exactly me 

[cbmclean]

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I would just have to laugh if I’d verified like this, thankfully it won’t cause next run will be completely different.

 

This is SE weenie approved.  I'll see myself to the door, thanks.  You guys will have the last laugh when I stare sadly out the window at cold rain while you shovel when it moves north.

[frd]

10 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

That will definitely pop the southeast ridge and a storm track right up the Eastern Seaboard just hope not too close and even west of us changes afoot! 

 

Should be interesting model runs in the days ahead,  and I look forward to cold smoke scenarios 

[Jebman]

49 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Mongolia has kept it up and still is.  We were predicted to get frigid once before and we got quite cold instead so let’s see if this batch hits us right on.  It looks like rollover cold which puts Dakotas at -30 for lows and is modified by about 30 when it gets here but that would still be extremely cold here, highs 15-20 and lows 0 to 5 

 

Ouch that is a direct hit on Austin. I don't even want to think about how cold that would be, a reprise of Feb 2022 I hope not. We lost all our plants and I was hauling water like an Oklahoma Sooner for days.