January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[DDweatherman]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

5.1” here 

10.3” season to date 

[DDweatherman]

31 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Jan ‘11 might have been my last legit thunder snow. I was living in downtown Bethesda and was on a jebber when lightning struck right overhead of me. Instant loud crack.

Constant thundersnow for me in East Baltimore in that one. It also snowed over 6” in 2 hours. 

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I wouldn't exactly say that LWX "downplayed" the event so much.  

They forecasted almost exactly what happened. There were a few localized spots in MD that jacked and got a few inches over the range but overall they nailed it. And there was a statement out specifying 2” per hour rates during rush hour!  People made really bad decisions and then looked for someone else to blame “why didn’t you stop me” which isn’t uncommon unfortunately 

[psuhoffman]

It reminds me of when I was chasing Nemo in CT and this guy in New Haven was trying to drive his 1980s Oldsmobile in 2 feet of snow!  I helped dig him out of a snow bank only to watch him immediately drive right into the next one!  Sometimes people just make bad decisions. 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

5.1” here 

Wouldn’t have figured you were pretty much at the bottom of the list this year since you don’t bring it up in

every. f’ing. post.

[anotherman]

It reminds me of when I was chasing Nemo in CT and this guy in New Haven was trying to drive his 1980s Oldsmobile in 2 feet of snow!  I helped dig him out of a snow bank only to watch him immediately drive right into the next one!  Sometimes people just make bad decisions. 

Sometimes?

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

Wouldn’t have figured you were pretty much at the bottom of the list this year since you don’t bring it up in

every. f’ing. post.

Did you know someone in the Shenandoah Valley only has 5” of snow?  

[Thewiledcard]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They forecasted almost exactly what happened. There were a few localized spots in MD that jacked and got a few inches over the range but overall they nailed it. And there was a statement out specifying 2” per hour rates during rush hour!  People made really bad decisions and then looked for someone else to blame “why didn’t you stop me” which isn’t uncommon unfortunately 

This comes to mind 

[mattie g]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Did you know someone in the Shenandoah Valley only has 5” of snow?  

I didn’t, but I have heard that someone in Maryland only has 5.6”!

[psuhoffman]

Just now, mattie g said:

I didn’t, but I have heard that someone in Maryland only has 5.6”!

5.1 get it right 

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE this chart kinda illustrates what I was seeing. Note how the bigger hits are around the 21-22. But it’s actually the same wave as the 19-20 that’s a smaller hit on other members. The more amplified solutions are slower. Which makes sense. 

There are 2 distinct potential events on the op runs though- the initial one centered on the 19th and another one a couple days later with the boundary further southeast. The ens means depict the same idea. I'm not spending time poring over each ens member to try to further interpret wave timing, whether there might be 2 or 3 waves, or how amped they are at this juncture. All that will become clearer in time.

[mattie g]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

5.1 get it right 

I only just found out about 5.1. It’s the 5.6 that I’ve heard lots about…

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There are 2 distinct potential events on the op runs though- the initial one centered on the 19th and another one a couple days later with the boundary further southeast. The ens means depict the same idea. I'm not spending time poring over each ens member to try to further interpret wave timing, whether there might be 2 or 3 waves, or how amped they are at this juncture. All that will become clearer in time.

I think I might be tossing the thing you’re counting as the first one as simply the frontal passage. Yes there could be some snow either front or back end with that if it goes right but I don’t think it has much upside. I probably shouldn’t be discounting it. But I wasn’t even including that which lead to our discrepancy. Sorry. My bad. 

[frd]

Arriving from Siberia to your house soon.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1878439902720753747

Eric Webb @webberweather

<The brutally cold arctic air mass that enters the CONUS a week from now originates over Siberia about 10 days earlier & starts out at -30C to -40C.>

 

 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

 

Yikes, what a a drop.

Also, combine that - EPO with a favorable elongated PV, and it ups the odds of a cold powder storm later in the month.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Lowershoresadness]

22 minutes ago, frd said:

Arriving from Siberia to your house soon.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1878439902720753747

Eric Webb @webberweather

 

<The brutally cold arctic air mass that enters the CONUS a week from now originates over Siberia about 10 days earlier & starts out at -30C to -40C.>

 

 

 

 

 

 

that looks like an unsuccessful trick play

[TSSN+]

Gfs just a bit different for the 19-20th lol. 

[stormtracker]

GFS and CMC h5 maps are just so completely different at around 120 and after.  Kinda neat to see.  And of course they keep changing with each run.   There's gotta be a flush hit run coming at some point...right?

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS and CMC h5 maps are just so completely different at around 120 and after.  Kinda neat to see.  And of course they keep changing with each run.   There's gotta be a flush hit run coming at some point...right?

 

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs just a bit different for the 19-20th lol. 

Could be a sign of big dog potential when the guidance is having a hard time getting a handle on things.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

EPO versus retrograding -NAO and PNA.  Who wins?

[Heisy]

CMC and gfs well apart with the progression of things




.

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Could be a sign of big dog potential when the guidance is having a hard time getting a handle on things.

Probably a sign of us getting nothing as usual. lol. I want some smoke. 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

One of my top 5 storms was in 2011  Big closed ull bowling ball with some of the craziest dynamic snowfalls we have ever seen.  I got slammed with well over a foot of snow in less than 8 hours… 

Nothing sticks out for 2000… 

Paul Kocin spoke at Millersville AMS pre-2011. He said that you should never sleep on an intensifying surface low coming off the Appalachian Mts. They can give you tornadoes in the summer and a surprise snowfall in the winter. 

2 hours ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Right! It was commutageddon .. lots of cars up and down the 95 corridor were stuck for hours.. some abandoned.. I remember going out with a shovel to help dig people out.  My wife thought I was crazy.

https://wtop.com/weather-news/2015/01/history-disastrous-snow-storms-d-c-area/

80,000 power outages in 5 hours in Montgomery County, MD. Trees were coming down on police and fire apparatus while they were responding to calls. Roads could not be pre-treated because a small amount of rain fell during the day. That is my benchmark for what a "high impact" storm can deliver in the east coast megalopolis.

2 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Yeah, Commutageddon on Jan. 26, 2011.  Also known as the "PSU Hoffman Storm" (@psuhoffman alluded to this above with his early call about that event...I even remember the thread for that event, it was labeled with his name!).  I got 8" snow in about 5 hours from that, it was amazing...thunder snow even.  It started as literal chunks of ice falling in the late afternoon that quickly turned into large flakes.

I wouldn't exactly say that LWX "downplayed" the event so much.  There was a sort of predecessor event in the pre-dawn and early morning hours that some areas did well in, prior to a lull, and then the main snow later.  LWX as I recall actually upped the advisories in the area to winter storm warnings by late morning on the 26th, and even highlighted the potential commute issues (since it was to start right around then).  I think most of the problem is that a lot of people figured it won't be too bad by the evening commute, so not many were sent home early.  Or, they were sent home only a little early, but by then it was kind of too late...everyone was out on the roads.  I know of a couple of people who lived a bit north of the DC metro area who were stuck on the roads until like midnight or 2AM! 

Jan 26, 2011 is in my Top 5 weather events of all time. I was in Lancaster at the time and remember how powerful the front end thump was impressive. Then we just snizzled all day before the afternoon thump came in hard right at sunset. Looking back at the after action reports in our work library, apparently OPM issued an early departure mandate, but it wasn't enforced my mid level managers. Everyone in DC proper was looking out their window and seeing drizzle thinking it would be a bust. It wasn't until the spouses started calling from home and relayed conditions in the suburbs getting so bad that everyone bailed. By then it was too late. That's why you see language now on PM early departure notices that say "managers must dismiss staff no later than X time". 

 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Probably a sign of us getting nothing as usual. lol. I want some smoke. 

CMC loading up down south starting on the 21st

[LP08]

Just now, stormtracker said:

CMC loading up down south starting on the 21st

CMC looks great.  Gfs brings everything together and doesn’t hold any back.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

CMC looks great.  Gfs brings everything together and doesn’t hold any back.

Yeah, its a good run.  looks about 6" for the forum attm

ETA:  There was still a lil more in the next panel..so like 6 to 8...

[Ji]

Remember the gfs kept showing historical blizzards for yesterday. Model is lost right now

[Ji]

Yeah, its a good run.  looks about 6" for the forum attm
ETA:  There was still a lil more in the next panel..so like 6 to 8...

Nothing matters till Dr no runs lol

[mitchnick]

In addition to a decent snow, Canadian looks like this at day 10. 

[gopper]

5 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Yeah, Commutageddon on Jan. 26, 2011.  Also known as the "PSU Hoffman Storm" (@psuhoffman alluded to this above with his early call about that event...I even remember the thread for that event, it was labeled with his name!).  I got 8" snow in about 5 hours from that, it was amazing...thunder snow even.  It started as literal chunks of ice falling in the late afternoon that quickly turned into large flakes.

I wouldn't exactly say that LWX "downplayed" the event so much.  There was a sort of predecessor event in the pre-dawn and early morning hours that some areas did well in, prior to a lull, and then the main snow later.  LWX as I recall actually upped the advisories in the area to winter storm warnings by late morning on the 26th, and even highlighted the potential commute issues (since it was to start right around then).  I think most of the problem is that a lot of people figured it won't be too bad by the evening commute, so not many were sent home early.  Or, they were sent home only a little early, but by then it was kind of too late...everyone was out on the roads.  I know of a couple of people who lived a bit north of the DC metro area who were stuck on the roads until like midnight or 2AM! 

Great storm for sure!  Remember the thread well and how PSU saw it coming many days away.  I became a true PSU believer then!  The Jeb walk with the kids and the thunder and lightning was the best.  Reminded me of the blizzard of 87 with the thunder an lightning.