January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[WVclimo]

31 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Somehow I don’t buy that. 

Why is that ?  The I-81 crew hasn’t had a lot of snow so far.  I’m at 8” but I benefitted from a local jack on 12/15.  I can certainly see Stephens City being at 6”.

Poolz in Boonsboro is at 6.75” and Chris78 is around 7” up in Smithsburg.

[JenkinsJinkies]

An AI based model flip flops a week out and suddenly we’ve got cliff jumpers. If the models still show that on Thursday then you can take the whining to the panic room.

[Wxtrix]

4 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

How is that possible? I am about double that. Is this your ruler?

 

i've had 7.5" of snow so far this winter.

[mitchnick]

40 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Dude…you need to stop with this. You’ve been at this long enough to know that anything past 5-7 days is prone to huge swings, especially in a non-blocky pattern!

We're going to have plenty of chances coming up over the next month, and we won’t have confidence in most of them more than 3-4 days out. Let’s keep an eye on things but not invest one way or another!

Look, I know how the game is played. Point out nothing but positive, and everybody is happy. Point out that there are no guarantees and there are ways to lose, and you're the goat. So what? All options are on the table at this point, including success and failure of the ensembles. I'm as hungry as anyone else for snow, but ignoring credible scenarios that could results in failure has always been part of the discussion and just end in more disappointment should they occur if not discussed. 

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, Wxtrix said:

 

i've had 7.5" of snow so far this winter.

I get that. But you are north of me. Which has had less so far this winter. He is south. Not to send this thread into a complete tailspin. GFS still has the little event on Thursday/Friday. Still needs to be watched. But looks to favor your area more than mine. 

[stormtracker]

Hmm GFS H5 is vastly different from 18z already

[mitchnick]

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It looked like it was about to smoke us day 15. I have no faith in any one wave. There is absolutely no way guidance will pin down the details of any of those discreet boundary waves past day 5 at best. I have more optimism when you take the whole day 9-16 period that we have a good chance one of the likely waves within that period has a decent chance here. 
 

If you are pinning your hopes totally on the first follow up wave around the 20th that’s more likely to fail. My optimism is that one of the waves in the whole pattern coming up will get us. 

Like I said earlier, I  believe we need the ridge from the Atlantic into the coast. Everything that I've seen that gives us snow has that. I  believe without that blocking ridge, the risk of sliding to the east or south is great. It's pretty much that simple but it is definitely too early to know. Reporting model runs, whatever they may show, is something we do.

[CAPE]

We might need a flizzard/snow squall redux thread for mid week.

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We might need a flizzard/snow squall redux thread for mid week.

Yes the signal has been there for a couple of days. Measurable is not off the table. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Somehow I don’t buy that. 

Im pretty sure an engineer knows how to operate a scale.

[clskinsfan]

GFS also has a possible thumper for next weekend. Volatile period is incoming. We will have plenty of chances to track over the next few weeks. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

GFS also has a possible thumper for next weekend. Volatile period is incoming. We will have plenty of chances to track over the next few weeks. 

It does?

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Somehow I don’t buy that. 

He lives in a a rain shadow. A precip killing, dry downsloping hole. I can buy it. Probably does well with big wrapped up coastals with easterly flow when I'm getting rain and sleet.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It does?

For me

[stormtracker]

So, not sure of the outcome, but I can't be mad at the GFS h5 by 200 at this point.  I would think it's improved vs 18z

[stormtracker]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

For me

It does?

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It does?

Yes it does. A week out I am not really caring about CAD temps. But the signal IS there. 

Again. FOR ME. And of course snow is an IMBY game. 

[CAPE]

The damn avocado is back on the 0z GFS. It loves that shit.

[stormtracker]

Yeah, much improved H5...still not there yet tho..trof just too broad for now...but we take at this point

[mitchnick]

We'll have a better chance with the Canadian than Gfs.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We'll have a better chance with the Canadian than Gfs.

Not liking the look so far...but let's let it play out

It's not terrible.  Just not like 12z

[mitchnick]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Not liking the look so far...but let's let it play out

Beats the avocado. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Beats the avocado. 

Hold on...I spoke too soon.   I keep looking only at H5 and not sfc

It's a little warmish so far.   Nice slug of moisture surging from the southwest.

ETA:  Yeah, it's warm for us at the onset...but honestly, we know the thermal boundary gonna change a trillion times.   I'm please with the Canadian. 

[CAPE]

Lucky for us the overwhelming Barney cold look some of the op runs like to advertise at range almost never materializes.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hold on...I spoke too soon.   I keep looking only at H5 and not sfc

Stronger trough out west on Canadian pumps the ridge a bit more than 12z, so it's warmer. But at 9 days, who cares. At least there's a storm.

[CAPE]

Its pretty close to something good on the 21st. And the GEFS has been liking that window.

[clskinsfan]

Damn. GFS gonna be as cold as the Euro through its run. Nuts. 

[mitchnick]

At least there's a storm on the Canadian, despite "minor" changes to its 12z run.

[clskinsfan]

This place is dead af. Euro has the possible thump as well. Not as cold as the GFS though. 

[stormtracker]

29 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This place is dead af. Euro has the possible thump as well. Not as cold as the GFS though. 

Euro close on the 20-21.  Is that what you mean?