January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re right but there is nothing to suppress the boundary. If any kind of meaningful wave comes among the boundary will push north ahead of it. We need it down there with no block if we want any kind of amplification to work out imo. 

I admit this is all a waste of time (lol), but imho if you don't have that ridging you're just going to have a storm too far off the coast. Fortunately, all the modeling will change enough come 0z that we'll never know.

[EastCoast NPZ]

9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

How is that possible? I am about double that. Is this your ruler?

6.3" on the season.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

6.3" on the season.

My snowpack is deeper than that right now. Thank god you moved out of my backyard.

[Chris78]

GEFS around day 10. 

Not as good a look as the GEPS and EPS but I'd take my chances with that .

850s and 2M temps are plenty cold with some room to spare.

[WVclimo]

30 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Well, the legit good pattern has led me to 6" of snow halfway through MET winter, so....

We are at about 30% of our average snowfall climo by this date.  The other 70% typically falls after January 15.

[clskinsfan]

Just now, WVclimo said:

We are at about 30% of our average snowfall climo by this date.

I am at 37% right now. With a pattern that could be epic still to come. I have nothing to complain about at all. 

[WVclimo]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

I am at 37% right now. With a pattern that could be epic still to come. I have nothing to complain about at all. 

I phrased that all wrong lol.  What I meant to say is that only 30% of our snowfall average comes before January 15.  

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, WVclimo said:

I phrased that all wrong lol.  What I meant to say is that only 30% of our snowfall average comes before January 15.  

Which means I am well above average at his point. Can not complain. 

[87storms]

6.3" on the season.

Could end up just being average which is better than the non-existent winters we’ve had every other year it seems since 2016. Those are the issues more so than the “median” years which balance out the occasional hecs.

[pazzo83]

24 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

6.3" on the season.

you measuring under your deck umbrella bro?

[EastCoast NPZ]

18 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

I phrased that all wrong lol.  What I meant to say is that only 30% of our snowfall average comes before January 15.  

I know.  Just stating that this has not been a particularly good start to winter for a good chunk of the sub as a reason for the pessimism that PSU noted.

[T. August]

4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I know.  Just stating that this has not been a particularly good start to winter for a good chunk of the sub as a reason for the pessimism that PSU noted.

I’m nowhere geographically close to you, but I’m at 5.4” for the season lol. Gotta be the lowest of the subforum.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

Ain’t losing sleep over the gfs 3 days out. Where is my blizzard it had for last night/today? 

It had a blizzard for this sub for like 1.25 runs. The rest of the time it had essentially the same event that transpired.

[psuhoffman]

Gefs lit up light a Xmas tree day 10-15

[Heisy]

Gefs lit up light a Xmas tree day 10-15

Can see why here, lot of members must be separating the waves, leaving energy behind like cmc…




.

[DraydenWX]

5 hours ago, WesternFringe said:

100% disagree.  My family will remember this week forever.  3 rounds of snow totaling 11” and still haven’t gone above freezing since Sunday.  The kids got a whole week off from school, as did my wife and I since we both teach.  Sledding, fires, plowing snow, movies, blowing snow, family dinners, atv rides, jebwalks, 5° nights, etc.

This area in general, and my family specifically, will remember this week in perpetuity.

That’s what it’s all about. That’s why most of us are here, whether we admitted or not. Thank you for that. Saw a lot of people enjoying the weather weather this week.

[MDScienceTeacher]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

MJO = Maybe it's Just Over?

SSW = Stupid Shitty Winter!

 

 

I know what the mjo is but I often wonder if the mjo is correlated with the monsoon in tropical regions. In otherwords, do monsoons happen in an area when the mjo is in a certain phase?

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, T. August said:

I’m nowhere geographically close to you, but I’m at 5.4” for the season lol. Gotta be the lowest of the subforum.

5.6” for me- yeah, I think you might be lowest (barely). 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Gefs lit up light a Xmas tree day 10-15

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

 

Good, because the 18z EuroAI removed all chances of snow and now looks like the 18z Gfs operational by pushing the boundary off the coast. 

[Eskimo Joe]

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Good, because the 18z EuroAI removed all chances of snow and now looks like the 18z Gfs operational by pushing the boundary off the coast. 

Has the EuroAI even been remotely correct this winter?

[nj2va]

3 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

6.3" on the season.

Somehow I don’t buy that. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Has the EuroAI even been remotely correct this winter?

Yes, but like all the rest, is not perfect. Heisey seems to follow it closer than I do and he believes it's done very well. Past 240 hrs, imho it's no better than any of the ensembles.  But you know how it goes, they all have hot hands and cold ones, but never know which it is until the forecast period has past.

[mattie g]

27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Good, because the 18z EuroAI removed all chances of snow and now looks like the 18z Gfs operational by pushing the boundary off the coast. 

Dude…you need to stop with this. You’ve been at this long enough to know that anything past 5-7 days is prone to huge swings, especially in a non-blocky pattern!

We're going to have plenty of chances coming up over the next month, and we won’t have confidence in most of them more than 3-4 days out. Let’s keep an eye on things but not invest one way or another!

[Ji]

Has the EuroAI even been remotely correct this winter?

It’s been a terrible model all season. Extremely unreliable

[psuhoffman]

39 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Good, because the 18z EuroAI removed all chances of snow and now looks like the 18z Gfs operational by pushing the boundary off the coast. 

It looked like it was about to smoke us day 15. I have no faith in any one wave. There is absolutely no way guidance will pin down the details of any of those discreet boundary waves past day 5 at best. I have more optimism when you take the whole day 9-16 period that we have a good chance one of the likely waves within that period has a decent chance here. 
 

If you are pinning your hopes totally on the first follow up wave around the 20th that’s more likely to fail. My optimism is that one of the waves in the whole pattern coming up will get us. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Dude…you need to stop with this. You’ve been at this long enough to know that anything past 5-7 days is prone to huge swings, especially in a non-blocky pattern!

We're going to have plenty of chances coming up over the next month, and we won’t have confidence in most of them more than 3-4 days out. Let’s keep an eye on things but not invest one way or another!

This 

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

It’s been a terrible model all season. Extremely unreliable

This.  I don’t even pay attention to it. 
 

Anyway, what are we rooting for again?  More vort held back or something or other.  

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Anyway, what are we rooting for again?

This

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

This

Bet. 
 

But I meant before that.  Like 180 range. I’ll figure it out. Just haven’t been paying attention closely since this is in fantasy land still.