January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Eskimo Joe]

38 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

There was a lot of chatter about the MJO going into the warm phases late January, now looks like it is heading into the null phase and potentially back into the cold phases instead.

Wow that's nice. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

 That little clipper on Thursday/Friday has shown up a couple of times with a shot at some measurable. I know we are big dog trackers here. But it is something to watch. Especially for those of us to west. 

I'll take anything to freshen up the snowpack.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s funny that some seemed more “optimistic” the last several years when we were stuck in absolutely hopeless situations. I’d see these posts trying to polish the turd we’d been handed.  I was like “what are you looking at this is crap and we have no hope” and they would say I was being a deb.
 

Now we have a legit good pattern with a real chance to have a good season and many are now more pessimistic than me. WTF is going on?  

Stockholm Syndrome. We suck until we don't. 

55 minutes ago, stormy said:

The GEFS extended has a colder anomaly for the first 10 days of February than 24 hrs. ago.

Man that's nice. Couldn't ask for a better setup.

[Deck Pic]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

There is no week where DC averages 3-4” of snow. Plus, when was the last time we hit climo?  I’d take a freaking climo year every season and be happy. 

3 years ago 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

3 years ago 

Close but fell slightly short. 2019 was the last year DCA made climo. 2016 was the last time all 3 airports made climo. And that’s only happened 4 times in the last 20 years!  

[Deck Pic]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Close but fell slightly short. 2019 was the last year DCA made climo. 2016 was the last time all 3 airports made climo. And that’s only happened 4 times in the last 20 years!  

13.2” at DCA vs 13.7” climo. 
 

come on dude. lol. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

13.2” at DCA vs 13.7” climo. 
 

come on dude. lol. 

It was even worse for my area and Baltimore. We didn’t even get close. The last year most of our area actually hit snow climo was 2016!  We’ve had some years since where’s a localized area within our sub got lucky with one storm and got close.

[WVclimo]

57 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

That euro run was woof. Snow to death cold. 

If that whole Euro run were to verify, a top 5 coldest January in the last 50 years for our area would be in play.

[MountainGeek]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was even worse for my area and Baltimore. We didn’t even get close. The last year most of our area actually hit snow climo was 2016!  We’ve had some years since where’s a localized area within our sub got lucky with one storm and got close.

Didn't you calculate at some point how much snow we'd need to get just to break even on keeping climo from declining over the 20-year average? I think the N/W areas probably need something like 150" this year just to get back to even.....

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

We remember 2015 fondly with no hecs. I think if we get 2 more significant snow events (say a secs and MECS) this will be remembered as a full win. But your main point is valid. We have to score. And yes we “could” get unlucky and not get anymore snow.  But my point was about expectations. For years I’ve seen people trying to find some hope in a totally hopeless situation. Now we have a legit shot and some of those same people are like “meh”. 

Pretty much human nature. We don’t want bad things to happen, so we try to wish good things into existence and we don’t want to get carried away when things seem to be too good.

There’s also the whole PTSD thing from sucking pretty hard for pretty much the last eight years…

[Heisy]

This one’s for Ji, end of JMA, looks good with the cold front pushing east and a lot of energy load up out west.




.

[mitchnick]

12z Euro AI had a stronger cold press, so not so much snow around and past day 9 fwiw.

[bncho]

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Close but fell slightly short. 2019 was the last year DCA made climo. 2016 was the last time all 3 airports made climo. And that’s only happened 4 times in the last 20 years!  

I mean, 5th times a charm?/

[Heisy]

12z Euro AI had a stronger cold press, so not so much snow around and past day 9 fwiw.

Bad spacing? Guess I’ll find out in an hour on wxbell


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[mitchnick]

Just now, Heisy said:

Bad spacing? Guess I’ll find out in an hour on wxbell


.

Can't tell with those cheesy maps.  Too strong of a cold push unless I'm  wrong. 

[Ji]

My snowfall map dropped from 5 to 3. Maybe two of those inches are from the storm yesterday.

[cbmclean]

30 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Pretty much human nature. We don’t want bad things to happen, so we try to wish good things into existence and we don’t want to get carried away when things seem to be too good.

There’s also the whole PTSD thing from sucking pretty hard for pretty much the last eight years…

I have a similar armchair psychology guess, based on insights into my own nature.  If you think about it, failing during a good pattern could be considered much more threatening than just being in a bad pattern and fulfilling expectations.  So when a potentially good period appears on the horizon we want to downplay it to reduce psychological pain that would occur if it fails.  Sort of a defense mechanism.  

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Bad spacing? Guess I’ll find out in an hour on wxbell


.

It's on TT now.

[Maestrobjwa]

57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was even worse for my area and Baltimore. We didn’t even get close. The last year most of our area actually hit snow climo was 2016!  We’ve had some years since where’s a localized area within our sub got lucky with one storm and got close.

Dang are our yards really that much in the minority here?

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s a small sample size so far but early returns are encouraging yes. We have to be realistic. The longer scale slow degradation is likely to continue. But this is a sign that perhaps a much larger % of our woes was pdo related. 
 

A realistic expectation of the next positive snowfall cycle might be if we can return to the base state of 2003-2016 with perhaps a 10% reduction in snowfall. I can live with that. Especially considering the alternative. 

I'm definitely encouraged about what might happen for the MA in a good pattern.  But as you have stated in multiple write-ups one of the most damning aspects of the whole situation is the fact that the MA used to be able to sometimes get nickels and dimes even when the pattern had flaws.  But over the last period, any sort of pattern flaw led to complete failure.  I will feel more optimistic once you start periodically succeeding even when there is something "off" in the pattern.

And yes that is important to me as a SE weenie.  Because if your snow climo turns into my snow climo and you need absolutely everything to be right to get decent snow, then it doesn't take a weather genius to guess what MY snow climo is going to turn into.

[stormy]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang are our yards really that much in the minority here?

I surpassed snow climo in 21-22 with 28.50 inches. The relentless harp about lack of snow and warming is amusing....................   I guess, that's what makes the world go around.....................

[Heisy]

It's on TT now.

Oh it’s actually decent, it just didn’t have as strong of a wave out west. Looks like it still skims us at least.


.

[StormyClearweather]

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I'm definitely encouraged about what might happen for the MA in a good pattern.  But as you have stated in multiple write-ups one of the most damning aspects of the whole situation is the fact that the MA used to be able to sometimes get nickels and dimes even when the pattern had flaws.  But over the last period, any sort of pattern flaw led to complete failure.  I will feel more optimistic once you start periodically succeeding even when there is something "off" in the pattern.

And yes that is important to me as a SE weenie.  Because if your snow climo turns into my snow climo and you need absolutely everything to be right to get decent snow, then it doesn't take a weather genius to guess what MY snow climo is going to turn into.

I moved up here a little over three years ago, and it does feel relatively close to the snow climo I remember in the foothills of SC back when I was a kid in the 90s. I don't actually think it's quite that "bad," but it's not far off, realizing the last three years hasn't been awesome for this area. Side note: I was shocked when I read yesterday than Greenville (and RDU and other areas) had gone 1,000+ days without snow.

[StormyClearweather]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Oh it’s actually decent, it just didn’t have as strong of a wave out west. Looks like it still skims us at least.


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And with the recurring theme of cold being somewhat overdone in the long-term, I'm feeling decent about where we sit. Though I don't know if the AI has been overdoing it as much as the regular models. 

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, stormy said:

I surpassed snow climo in 21-22 with 28.50 inches. The relentless harp about lack of snow and warming is amusing....................   I guess, that's what makes the world go around.....................

Not sure I follow...I was referring to where I and PSU, Mappy, and others are. Did not get climo that year--not because of being too warm but just on the fringe.

[stormy]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not sure I follow...I was referring to where I and PSU, Mappy, and others are. Did not get climo that year--not because of being too warm but just on the fringe.

You are smart!      Snow climo is very fluid depending on where you measure.

Lets be honest, we have been in a snow drought for nearly 10 years.  Micromanaging can vary.

[cbmclean]

17 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

I moved up here a little over three years ago, and it does feel relatively close to the snow climo I remember in the foothills of SC back when I was a kid in the 90s. I don't actually think it's quite that "bad," but it's not far off, realizing the last three years hasn't been awesome for this area. Side note: I was shocked when I read yesterday than Greenville (and RDU and other areas) had gone 1,000+ days without snow.

Yes CLT and RDU broke that streak yesterday but but by the bare minimum.  Very little snow actually fell.  It was mostly sleet and frz rn

[Deck Pic]

29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not sure I follow...I was referring to where I and PSU, Mappy, and others are. Did not get climo that year--not because of being too warm but just on the fringe.

I was focused on mby like we all are. Heh. We go through droughts and heaters unfortunately. I remember 12-13 and maybe 13-14. When the Westminster guys would clean up and I’d get 0.5”

 

[Deck Pic]

As soon as I open a medium range thread and see MJO discussion, I know there is nothing coming up. 

[NorthArlington101]

This is a really strong signal for post-MLK Day on the EPS.

[Deck Pic]

27 minutes ago, stormy said:

You are smart!      Snow climo is very fluid depending on where you measure.

Lets be honest, we have been in a snow drought for nearly 10 years.  Micromanaging can vary.

My drought started in 16-17. Since then I’ve averaged 50% of climo. Biggest year 18-19 was I had 19” which is just over climo (16”).  21-22 was just under.  Rest of sucked.