Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 My snowfall map dropped from 5 to 3. Maybe two of those inches are from the storm yesterday. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 30 minutes ago, mattie g said: Pretty much human nature. We don’t want bad things to happen, so we try to wish good things into existence and we don’t want to get carried away when things seem to be too good. There’s also the whole PTSD thing from sucking pretty hard for pretty much the last eight years… I have a similar armchair psychology guess, based on insights into my own nature. If you think about it, failing during a good pattern could be considered much more threatening than just being in a bad pattern and fulfilling expectations. So when a potentially good period appears on the horizon we want to downplay it to reduce psychological pain that would occur if it fails. Sort of a defense mechanism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 20 minutes ago, Heisy said: Bad spacing? Guess I’ll find out in an hour on wxbell . It's on TT now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It was even worse for my area and Baltimore. We didn’t even get close. The last year most of our area actually hit snow climo was 2016! We’ve had some years since where’s a localized area within our sub got lucky with one storm and got close. Dang are our yards really that much in the minority here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: It’s a small sample size so far but early returns are encouraging yes. We have to be realistic. The longer scale slow degradation is likely to continue. But this is a sign that perhaps a much larger % of our woes was pdo related. A realistic expectation of the next positive snowfall cycle might be if we can return to the base state of 2003-2016 with perhaps a 10% reduction in snowfall. I can live with that. Especially considering the alternative. I'm definitely encouraged about what might happen for the MA in a good pattern. But as you have stated in multiple write-ups one of the most damning aspects of the whole situation is the fact that the MA used to be able to sometimes get nickels and dimes even when the pattern had flaws. But over the last period, any sort of pattern flaw led to complete failure. I will feel more optimistic once you start periodically succeeding even when there is something "off" in the pattern. And yes that is important to me as a SE weenie. Because if your snow climo turns into my snow climo and you need absolutely everything to be right to get decent snow, then it doesn't take a weather genius to guess what MY snow climo is going to turn into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Dang are our yards really that much in the minority here? I surpassed snow climo in 21-22 with 28.50 inches. The relentless harp about lack of snow and warming is amusing.................... I guess, that's what makes the world go around..................... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 It's on TT now.Oh it’s actually decent, it just didn’t have as strong of a wave out west. Looks like it still skims us at least. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I'm definitely encouraged about what might happen for the MA in a good pattern. But as you have stated in multiple write-ups one of the most damning aspects of the whole situation is the fact that the MA used to be able to sometimes get nickels and dimes even when the pattern had flaws. But over the last period, any sort of pattern flaw led to complete failure. I will feel more optimistic once you start periodically succeeding even when there is something "off" in the pattern. And yes that is important to me as a SE weenie. Because if your snow climo turns into my snow climo and you need absolutely everything to be right to get decent snow, then it doesn't take a weather genius to guess what MY snow climo is going to turn into. I moved up here a little over three years ago, and it does feel relatively close to the snow climo I remember in the foothills of SC back when I was a kid in the 90s. I don't actually think it's quite that "bad," but it's not far off, realizing the last three years hasn't been awesome for this area. Side note: I was shocked when I read yesterday than Greenville (and RDU and other areas) had gone 1,000+ days without snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: Oh it’s actually decent, it just didn’t have as strong of a wave out west. Looks like it still skims us at least. . And with the recurring theme of cold being somewhat overdone in the long-term, I'm feeling decent about where we sit. Though I don't know if the AI has been overdoing it as much as the regular models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 minutes ago, stormy said: I surpassed snow climo in 21-22 with 28.50 inches. The relentless harp about lack of snow and warming is amusing.................... I guess, that's what makes the world go around..................... Not sure I follow...I was referring to where I and PSU, Mappy, and others are. Did not get climo that year--not because of being too warm but just on the fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Not sure I follow...I was referring to where I and PSU, Mappy, and others are. Did not get climo that year--not because of being too warm but just on the fringe. You are smart! Snow climo is very fluid depending on where you measure. Lets be honest, we have been in a snow drought for nearly 10 years. Micromanaging can vary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 17 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: I moved up here a little over three years ago, and it does feel relatively close to the snow climo I remember in the foothills of SC back when I was a kid in the 90s. I don't actually think it's quite that "bad," but it's not far off, realizing the last three years hasn't been awesome for this area. Side note: I was shocked when I read yesterday than Greenville (and RDU and other areas) had gone 1,000+ days without snow. Yes CLT and RDU broke that streak yesterday but but by the bare minimum. Very little snow actually fell. It was mostly sleet and frz rn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 This is a really strong signal for post-MLK Day on the EPS. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 22 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: As soon as I open a medium range thread and see MJO discussion, I know there is nothing coming up. Well in this case it didn't necessarily mean that--but rather a passing note of a positive development cold-wise in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 24 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Didn’t you do ok in 20-21. I had 7”. But my cabin in WV had around 30” for winter Yeah, it was decent up in Hanover with around 32-34" I believe. I'm less than 10 miles north of him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Yeah, it was decent up in Hanover with around 32-34" I believe. I'm less than 10 miles north of him.‘20-‘21 featured two 10”+ storms in York County, PA, but if I remember correctly the cutoff was brutal for both of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: It’s funny that some seemed more “optimistic” the last several years when we were stuck in absolutely hopeless situations. I’d see these posts trying to polish the turd we’d been handed. I was like “what are you looking at this is crap and we have no hope” and they would say I was being a deb. Now we have a legit good pattern with a real chance to have a good season and many are now more pessimistic than me. WTF is going on? They got burned one too many times so now they can't properly enjoy a great pattern because they'll always expect a rug pull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, anotherman said: ‘20-‘21 features two 10”+ storms in York County, PA, but if I remember correctly the cutoff was brutal for both of them. Yep. Mid December and January 31/February 1. Snow on the ground entire month of February with like 4 events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I see a couple sneaky 'flizzard' chances this week with some upper level energy moving through in a generally cold/dry period. Wed and again early Friday are worth watching. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 45 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: As soon as I open a medium range thread and see MJO discussion, I know there is nothing coming up. MJO = Maybe it's Just Over? SSW = Stupid Shitty Winter! 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: I see a couple sneaky 'flizzard' chances this week with some upper level energy moving through in a generally cold/dry period. Wed and again early Friday are worth watching. May as well since Gfs continues to overwhelm the pattern with cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, mitchnick said: May as well since Gfs continues to overwhelming the pattern with cold. GFS playing the role of Dr. No for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: May as well since Gfs continues to overwhelming the pattern with cold. But when I looked at my point and click 10 day I definitely don't see any overwhelming cold. I guess overwhelming high pressure is the culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: May as well since Gfs continues to overwhelming the pattern with cold. I won't lose any sleep over the GFS op 10 days out, which is really the beginning of the next period of interest. The GEFS has looked pretty promising, and even the op has been close in that window on some recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, dailylurker said: But when I looked at my point and click 10 day I definitely don't see any overwhelming cold. I guess overwhelming high pressure is the culprit. I was referring to the day 10 period. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850t_anom&rh=2025011118&fh=234&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I won't lose any sleep over the GFS op 10 days out, which is really the beginning of the next period of interest. The GEFS has looked pretty promising, and even the op has been close in that window on some recent runs. Gfs used to have that bias big time but that seemed to have been corrected. But as long as the ensembles look good, I'll just sit tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, dailylurker said: But when I looked at my point and click 10 day I definitely don't see any overwhelming cold. I guess overwhelming high pressure is the culprit. There wont likely be any lol. Op runs at range- esp the GFS- tend to do this when there is a modeled pattern that supports colder than avg temps. That's why we call it guidance- not to be taken verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: I won't lose any sleep over the GFS op 10 days out, which is really the beginning of the next period of interest. The GEFS has looked pretty promising, and even the op has been close in that window on some recent runs. Ain’t losing sleep over the gfs 3 days out. Where is my blizzard it had for last night/today? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 hours ago, MountainGeek said: Didn't you calculate at some point how much snow we'd need to get just to break even on keeping climo from declining over the 20-year average? I think the N/W areas probably need something like 150" this year just to get back to even..... Yes but I stopped when it got ridiculous. At this point our 30 year snow mean will reduce again at the end of the decade unless we average some crazy stupid amount the rest of the way. We would need like two 2010s and a 2014 to save us. Not gonna happen. 1 hour ago, stormy said: I surpassed snow climo in 21-22 with 28.50 inches. The relentless harp about lack of snow and warming is amusing.................... I guess, that's what makes the world go around..................... 1 hour ago, Deck Pic said: I was focused on mby like we all are. Heh. We go through droughts and heaters unfortunately. I remember 12-13 and maybe 13-14. When the Westminster guys would clean up and I’d get 0.5” 1 hour ago, Deck Pic said: Didn’t you do ok in 20-21. I had 7”. But my cabin in WV had around 30” for winter Yes I did great in 2021 but that was the opposite of what you’re talking about in 2022 or 2019. It was a localized thing, in 2021 it was my area and the extreme NW parts of our sub. But I would never call that a good winter or above climo for “us” I just got lucky locally. I differentiate winters where there is a large above avg snowfall zone v ones where most of the east at and near our latitude is below avg with just a lucky pocket or two of near or slightly above avg snow from a lucky hit on one or two storms. 2019 and 2022 weren’t snowy winters in the east. Some limited parts of our region got lucky but on the whole they were not close to years like 2010, 2014, 2015… they weren’t as bad as years like 2017, 2020, 2023 but if your high water mark winters are just blah where a very small area might get close to climo at best if they get lucky…that’s not good. I think we are just looking at it different. We both know this. I was just making a different point is all. It’s been a long time since we had a widespread at or above climo winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/10/2025 at 5:11 PM, psuhoffman said: It’s ok. Ji is a master baiter. Master baster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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