January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Eskimo Joe]

The old GEM/Euro. Gimme

[bncho]

12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Not bad for this range.

Send snow maps.

[adelphi_sky]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Send snow maps.

God I wish this was 48 hours away. 

[psuhoffman]

52 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Screams normal climo here.

There is no week where DC averages 3-4” of snow. Plus, when was the last time we hit climo?  I’d take a freaking climo year every season and be happy. 

[Blizzard of 93]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

Send snow maps.

 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS, Day 10.

[Weather Will]

There was a lot of chatter about the MJO going into the warm phases late January, now looks like it is heading into the null phase and potentially back into the cold phases instead.

[clskinsfan]

 That little clipper on Thursday/Friday has shown up a couple of times with a shot at some measurable. I know we are big dog trackers here. But it is something to watch. Especially for those of us to west. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

There was a lot of chatter about the MJO going into the warm phases late January, now looks like it is heading into the null phase and potentially back into the cold phases instead.

Shocking 

[Ji]

There is no week where DC averages 3-4” of snow. Plus, when was the last time we hit climo?  I’d take a freaking climo year every season and be happy. 

Do you feel better about future life now seeing what can happen when pdo isn’t severely negative

[psuhoffman]

It’s funny that some seemed more “optimistic” the last several years when we were stuck in absolutely hopeless situations. I’d see these posts trying to polish the turd we’d been handed.  I was like “what are you looking at this is crap and we have no hope” and they would say I was being a deb.
 

Now we have a legit good pattern with a real chance to have a good season and many are now more pessimistic than me. WTF is going on?  

[Weather Will]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It’s funny that some seemed more “optimistic” the last several years when we were stuck in absolutely hopeless situations. I’d see these posts trying to polish the turd we’d been handed.  I was like “what are you looking at this is crap and we have no hope” and they would say I was being a deb.
 

Now we have a legit good pattern with a real chance to have a good season and many are now more pessimistic than me. WTF is going on?  

I'm with you, nice pattern, but 10 years from now no one will remember it unless we get an HECS or better...

[adelphi_sky]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s funny that some seemed more “optimistic” the last several years when we were stuck in absolutely hopeless situations. I’d see these posts trying to polish the turd we’d been handed.  I was like “what are you looking at this is crap and we have no hope” and they would say I was being a deb.
 

Now we have a legit good pattern with a real chance to have a good season and many are now more pessimistic than me. WTF is going on?  

I thought of a nice LLM project where we take all the data from this forum over the last ten years and ask it some questions. I'm sure the answers would be remarkable. lol

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

I'm with you, nice pattern, but 10 years from now no one will remember it unless we get an HECS or better...

We remember 2015 fondly with no hecs. I think if we get 2 more significant snow events (say a secs and MECS) this will be remembered as a full win. But your main point is valid. We have to score. And yes we “could” get unlucky and not get anymore snow.  But my point was about expectations. For years I’ve seen people trying to find some hope in a totally hopeless situation. Now we have a legit shot and some of those same people are like “meh”. 

[stormy]

The EURO splits the difference between the GEM and GFS

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I'm with you, nice pattern, but 10 years from now no one will remember it unless we get an HECS or better...

January 22-23, 2016 redux exactly 9 years later?

[Weather Will]

I really take it as is positive that we can still get a moderate snow storm that will stick around for a week and let people enjoy the wintry scene...

Also will be paying closer attention to the pdo for now on, it rules the roost!!!!

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I really take it as is positive that we can still get a moderate snow storm that will stick around for a week and let people enjoy the wintry scene...

Also will be paying closer attention to the pdo for now on, it rules the roost!!!!

It's a measure of the Pacific, not a driver.

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

Do you feel better about future life now seeing what can happen when pdo isn’t severely negative

It’s a small sample size so far but early returns are encouraging yes. We have to be realistic. The longer scale slow degradation is likely to continue. But this is a sign that perhaps a much larger % of our woes was pdo related. 
 

A realistic expectation of the next positive snowfall cycle might be if we can return to the base state of 2003-2016 with perhaps a 10% reduction in snowfall. I can live with that. Especially considering the alternative. 

[stormy]

The GEFS extended has a colder anomaly for the first 10 days of February than 24 hrs. ago.

[Ji]

I'm with you, nice pattern, but 10 years from now no one will remember it unless we get an HECS or better...

Not true

[Miss Pixee]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s funny that some seemed more “optimistic” the last several years when we were stuck in absolutely hopeless situations. I’d see these posts trying to polish the turd we’d been handed.  I was like “what are you looking at this is crap and we have no hope” and they would say I was being a deb.
 

Now we have a legit good pattern with a real chance to have a good season and many are now more pessimistic than me. WTF is going on?  

Said it before and I'll say it again. People love being silly about snow. I enjoy it immensely but I ain't gonna stroke out about frozen water. May not be a popular opinion, but sometimes you gotta appreciate what's in front of you vs freaking out in imaginary panic.

 

[stormtracker]

Well, time to start my shift at the pbp factory next week. 

[TSSN+]

That euro run was woof. Snow to death cold. 

[WEATHER53]

Reason I ask about a Monday night clipper is Tuesday looks 10 degrees colder for a high and in this pattern that’s usually a clipper that ushers it in. 

[WEATHER53]

21 minutes ago, stormy said:

The GEFS extended has a colder anomaly for the first 10 days of February than 24 hrs. ago.

It looks cold thru at least first week of Feb.  I  Said that10 days ago  and  it’s still solid 

[stormy]

23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's a measure of the Pacific, not a driver.

This can be a driver that often rules the roost in winter when more than -3.0 negative

[bncho]

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s funny that some seemed more “optimistic” the last several years when we were stuck in absolutely hopeless situations. I’d see these posts trying to polish the turd we’d been handed.  I was like “what are you looking at this is crap and we have no hope” and they would say I was being a deb.
 

Now we have a legit good pattern with a real chance to have a good season and many are now more pessimistic than me. WTF is going on?  

ya know shits good when Ji is optimistic 

[WesternFringe]

57 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I'm with you, nice pattern, but 10 years from now no one will remember it unless we get an HECS or better...

100% disagree.  My family will remember this week forever.  3 rounds of snow totaling 11” and still haven’t gone above freezing since Sunday.  The kids got a whole week off from school, as did my wife and I since we both teach.  Sledding, fires, plowing snow, movies, blowing snow, family dinners, atv rides, jebwalks, 5° nights, etc.

This area in general, and my family specifically, will remember this week in perpetuity.

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, time to start my shift at the pbp factory next week. 

Gas up the bus