January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[psuhoffman]

The 6z gefs looks really good day 10-15.  
 

Jan 19 Still looks like a rain to snow type wave.  Individual runs can’t agree on which wave after but they are shotgunning boundary waves at us with the thermal gradient oriented SW to NE just south of us day 10-15. That’s what we want in this type of pattern. 
 

 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

6z Gfs is continuous cold and dry, aside from flurries. 

Edit: Gefs snowfall actually pretty decent.

This fits the trailing wave idea.

[wasnow215]

7 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Too cold in Jan and too warm in Feb. Early March is the key. 

Oh boy lol

[psuhoffman]

It’s gonna be a long few weeks if people react to every operational runs depiction of 200+ hour events.  None of these waves will be well resolved until inside 72 hours.  They tend to shift around a lot. If there is no NS interference they tend to shift north. If a NS wave ends up over the top in front they tend to shift south. But the boundary isn’t at stable as in a blocking regime. No chance guidance nails these at range. Some are overreacting to noise level changes run to run. 
 

look at the ensembles and the general long wave pattern.  Don’t react to synoptic specifics. 

[mitchnick]

I haven't looked closely at how they do it, but Geps snowfall map is the best of the 3 ensembles. At this range, that's all I need to know. Lol 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s gonna be a long few weeks if people react to every operational runs depiction of 200+ hour events.  None of these waves will be well resolved until inside 72 hours.  They tend to shift around a lot. If there is no NS interference they tend to shift north. If a NS wave ends up over the top in front they tend to shift south. But the boundary isn’t at stable as in a blocking regime. No chance guidance nails these at range. Some are overreacting to noise level changes run to run. 
 

look at the ensembles and the general long wave pattern.  Don’t react to synoptic specifics. 

Ensembles have the best look for a 5-7 day period I can remember. Hopefully they don't lose it. 6z EuroAI has the 2nd wave with the snow again. Biggest concern for me remains cold overwhelming but that's more based on seasonal pattern/persistence.

[Ralph Wiggum]

24 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Shit the (frozen) blinds.

Weenie handbook says when too much cold overwhelms the pattern and we are dry and cold, when the pattern relaxes is when we cash in. That's actually pretty true, all joking aside.

[Ralph Wiggum]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Jan 19 Still looks like a rain to snow type wave. 
 

 

Someone coined the term "anal front" for this earlier in the season.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Weenie handbook says when too much cold overwhelms the pattern and we are dry and cold, when the pattern relaxes is when we cash in. That's actually pretty true, all joking aside.

Last 3-4+ years has taught us that long range models almost exclusively overdo the depth of progressive cold invasions. I don't think it's different this time. Doesn't mean easy snow. Just won't be nearly as easy for GA than current progs show lol

[Heisy]

I think the 6z Euro Ai about to go off for the 21-22nd


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[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

I think the 6z Euro Ai about to go off for the 21-22nd


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That period 21-24 is honking imo across guidance and has been for a couple of days. Alas, things can pop in the short range with these patterns so we wait patiently and continue to monitor.

 

[Heisy]

Yeah, front clears around the 20th, left over energy is redeveloped in the SE with cold air in place, still near day 10 though just for entertainment purposes


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[Heisy]

That period 21-24 is honking imo across guidance and has been for a couple of days. Alas, things can pop in the short range with these patterns so we wait patiently and continue to monitor.
 

Yea there’s ways to win and fail, we don’t want the eventual trough to come East as one event. The runs that give us snow seem to hold back energy while allowing the cold front to clear first.


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[Solution Man]

26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Someone coined the term "anal front" for this earlier in the season.

That’s was me last year

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

52 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This fits the trailing wave idea.

That’s a nice look.  I’m just so pleased to see the ensembles keeping it cold basically through the end of January.  It looks like our “big warmup” next weekend maybe be a few days in the 40s.  When is the last time we’ve made it through January without a big thaw and at least a few days in the 50s?

[CAPE]

30 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I think the 6z Euro Ai about to go off for the 21-22nd


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It does. Nice look at the surface. Getting significant HP to the north has been nearly impossible in our current pattern.

[osfan24]

Any signs of blocking returning? I’m big-game hunting and this first round was a swing and a miss from the big-game standpoint. Weird how we couldn’t seem to ever get a high pressure to the north as noted by the poster above me.

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Any signs of blocking returning? I’m big-game hunting and this first round was a swing and a miss from the big-game standpoint. Weird how we couldn’t seem to ever get a high pressure to the north as noted by the poster above me.

It will have to reshuffle if a big -ao/-nao is coming back. Mod/strong EPO ridges generally feature a neutral or + ao/nao because it's awful hard to fill the entire arctic circle with high pressure. 

Blocking slows things down and spreads out shortwaves which is good when they have their eyes on you but terrible when your on the outside looking in. I'd prefer blocking but there are advantages to progressive epos when it comes to precip events. They are spaced tighter and more frequent. Pick your poison because it NEVER comes easy here lol

[CAPE]

27 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Any signs of blocking returning? I’m big-game hunting and this first round was a swing and a miss from the big-game standpoint. Weird how we couldn’t seem to ever get a high pressure to the north as noted by the poster above me.

The reason we couldn't is partly because of the massive vortex- our would be 50-50 low that was displaced SW of that position. The other part was the flow between the ridge out west and the TPV contributing to a lot of NS shortwaves feeding into the vortex. Even though it's weak, in a Nina the Polar jet tends to be busier and the STJ less prominent, so that's another contributing factor.

As for blocking going forward, the ens runs were depicting a Scandi ridge retrograding into the NAO space, but have backed off on recent cycles. There are still hints, so we shall see on that possibility.

[frd]

14 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Any signs of blocking returning? I’m big-game hunting and this first round was a swing and a miss from the big-game standpoint. Weird how we couldn’t seem to ever get a high pressure to the north as noted by the poster above me.

 

If you look at the blocking regimes and observe the NAO there is significant potential for a classic Mid Atlantic SECS event, during the favored window of Jan 18 th to Jan 25 th .  

Current forecast do not show any deep dives in the AO or NAO indices.  NAO getting ready to reverse near Jan . 20 th

The driver is the EPO.  

As Tomer states the increased risks of SECS can extend days past the end time of the Greenland High regime. 

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1878092022277636324

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

I'm keeping it simple going forward. Epo patterns are frustrating to figure out beyond 5 days and even then.... I'm not getting married to anything until it's inside of that range. Think of an epo driven pattern as one dude holding an open firehouse. Yea, you can kinda aim it where you want but it sprays all over anyway. That spray with flow is make or break. Expect nothing to lock in and hold mid range and beyond. It's a game of windows and not events. 

[WEATHER53]

Clipper Monday night?

[mitchnick]

Looks like the first batter is coming up to the plate at the end of the Icon run.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2025011112&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=500h_anom&rh=2025011112&fh=180&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[Blizzard of 93]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I haven't looked closely at how they do it, but Geps snowfall map is the best of the 3 ensembles. At this range, that's all I need to know. Lol 

6z GEFS & 0z GEPS are looking quite impressive for the 7 day period from the 20th to the 27th.

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Clipper Monday night?

Looks like 1 on Thursday to me.

[Heisy]

Better separation between initial front and energy behind, see if it can produce anything




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[Heisy]

Now 12z cmc, close to a woof woof signal here fellas. CAN definitely tell this might lead to some good things here. Northern stream is clearing and the left over energy looks pretty strong




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[JenkinsJinkies]

Is there a legit chance we can actually score in February this year?

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Better separation between initial front and energy behind, see if it can produce anything




.

Gem may have something post 180hrs

[mitchnick]

Just now, Heisy said:

Now 12z cmc, close to a woof woof signal here fellas. CAN definitely tell this might lead to some good things here. Northern stream is clearing and the left over energy looks pretty strong




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Ninjad