January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Ji]

lol. this run, GFS sucks for the 20th.  On to 6z

Canada

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

If a 2013-14 setup is actually in play, then that might be the best thing I’ve heard all decade.

Those who were too young back then are in for a real treat.

Man I REALLY hope that is the case. In which case I am extremely elated for the entire sub!

Because, IT'S THE MID ATLANTIC!

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol. this run, GFS sucks for the 20th.  On to 6z

I said earlier today my fear of cold overwhelming everything. Certainly looks that way thru 240hrs on both Gfs and Gem unfortunately. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Canada

Did you turn off the frozen precip setting by mistake?

[Ji]

Did you turn off the frozen precip setting by mistake?

Just use your imagination

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I said earlier today my fear of cold overwhelming everything. Certainly looks that way thru 240hrs on both Gfs and Gem unfortunately. 

Aren't there waves around around the 20th/21st on both of them, though? Now I'm just an amateur and I don't know for sure, but...the runs up to the 240 mark didn't seem so squashy for that week as they do for next week.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

Just use your imagination

Lazy 

[pazzo83]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Just use your imagination

Leesburg is gonna get rain now because you didn't put in the effort.  Good going.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Aren't there waves around around the 20th/21st on both of them, though? Now I'm just an amateur and I don't know for sure, but...the runs up to the 240 mark didn't seem so squashy for that week as they do for next week.

Nothing like what we saw the last few runs. Gfs has a fantasy storm post 270hrs, but that'll be gone by 12z if not 6z. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Nothing like what we saw the last few runs. Gfs has a fantasy storm post 270hrs, but that'll be gone by 12z if not 6z. 

This upcoming pattern is loaded with potential. We will win some & miss some, but I don’t see a shut out.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nothing like what we saw the last few runs. Gfs has a fantasy storm post 270hrs, but that'll be gone by 12z if not 6z. 

The last two runs were similar in terms of when things looked dry vs more active though. 12z and 18z both had waves the 20th and beyond with the usual fantasy-range mixture of results. So not entirely sure what you mean on that point. I mean...that range ya just to look for very general ideas of stuff, right? 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This upcoming pattern is loaded with potential. We will win some & miss some, but I don’t see a shut out.

What happened to the overrunning pattern? It keeps changing after 2 or 3 looks to something else, always further away in time. Just not believing the fantasy storms. 

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

What happened to the overrunning pattern? It keeps changing after 2 or 3 looks to something else, always further away in time. Just not believing the fantasy storms. 

It’s just a matter of time until a specific threat emerges. The window opens next weekend.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s just a matter of time until a specific threat emerges. The window opens next weekend.

Too much of a good thing...cold. The question is whether the new pattern is conducive once we get a thaw. Who knows? Hopefully the Euro will reflect some stability unlike the Gfs and Gefs. Maybe their ensembles look better, but it's not encouraging to see the operationals lose a new pattern so fast. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

What happened to the overrunning pattern? It keeps changing after 2 or 3 looks to something else, always further away in time. Just not believing the fantasy storms. 

So we punting thru the last week of January now due to too much cold? 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Too much of a good thing...cold. The question is whether the new pattern is conducive once we get a thaw. Who knows? Hopefully the Euro will reflect some stability unlike the Gfs and Gefs. Maybe their ensembles look better, but it's not encouraging to see the operationals lose a new pattern so fast. 

The last 2 weeks of January should feature storms & rumors of storms. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The last 2 weeks of January should feature storms & rumors of storms. 

Rumors I buy at this point. Storms, we're gunna have to wait on for a bit.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Rumors I buy at this point. Storms, we're gunna have to wait on for a bit.

I refuse to get upset with an Op run that delivers a significant snow chance & maintains the cold through the end of the run.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I refuse to get upset with an Op run that delivers a significant snow chance & maintains the cold through the end of the run.

Who's upset? Calling it the way I  see it and in light of the concern of too much cold. But I'm not saying it won't snow. I am saying I don't buy Gfs fantasy storms though. 

[Ji]

00z euro trying to stir up mischief on the 18th and 19th and maybe bigger after that

[Ji]

Euro with 3 different winter events in 3 days between day 9-11

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS.  Looks like we will get our chance(s).

[Maestrobjwa]

29 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro with 3 different winter events in 3 days between day 9-11

Well that's a jumbled kaboodle of waves...good luck figuring that out before Day 0.5 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Who's upset? Calling it the way I  see it and in light of the concern of too much cold. But I'm not saying it won't snow. I am saying I don't buy Gfs fantasy storms though. 

That’s the time period we identified though. Day 10-15. Not saying the day 8-9 thing can’t work but its not the best look. 

[CAPE]

The 0z EPS looks active between the 18th and 23rd, with potential for multiple waves. Best chance for frozen initially is to our northwest and then increases in the 21-23 window as the boundary moves southeastward. GEFS is fairly similar and gets cold air in place a bit sooner.

[CAPE]

6z GFS gets close here but a little offshore. Any waves prior to that are strung out/suppressed.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

6z GFS gets close here but a little offshore. Any waves prior to that are strung out/suppressed.

6z Gfs is continuous cold and dry, aside from flurries. 

Edit: Gefs snowfall actually pretty decent.

[Kmlwx]

They've salted my road into oblivion... So I'd actually welcome a good rain at this point to clear it before our HECS

[cbmclean]

7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So we punting thru the last week of January now due to too much cold? 

Shit the (frozen) blinds.

[blizzardmeiser]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Shit the (frozen) blinds.

Too cold in Jan and too warm in Feb. Early March is the key.