Blizzard of 93 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: What happened to the overrunning pattern? It keeps changing after 2 or 3 looks to something else, always further away in time. Just not believing the fantasy storms. It’s just a matter of time until a specific threat emerges. The window opens next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It’s just a matter of time until a specific threat emerges. The window opens next weekend. Too much of a good thing...cold. The question is whether the new pattern is conducive once we get a thaw. Who knows? Hopefully the Euro will reflect some stability unlike the Gfs and Gefs. Maybe their ensembles look better, but it's not encouraging to see the operationals lose a new pattern so fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: What happened to the overrunning pattern? It keeps changing after 2 or 3 looks to something else, always further away in time. Just not believing the fantasy storms. So we punting thru the last week of January now due to too much cold? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Too much of a good thing...cold. The question is whether the new pattern is conducive once we get a thaw. Who knows? Hopefully the Euro will reflect some stability unlike the Gfs and Gefs. Maybe their ensembles look better, but it's not encouraging to see the operationals lose a new pattern so fast. The last 2 weeks of January should feature storms & rumors of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The last 2 weeks of January should feature storms & rumors of storms. Rumors I buy at this point. Storms, we're gunna have to wait on for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, mitchnick said: Rumors I buy at this point. Storms, we're gunna have to wait on for a bit. I refuse to get upset with an Op run that delivers a significant snow chance & maintains the cold through the end of the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I refuse to get upset with an Op run that delivers a significant snow chance & maintains the cold through the end of the run. Who's upset? Calling it the way I see it and in light of the concern of too much cold. But I'm not saying it won't snow. I am saying I don't buy Gfs fantasy storms though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 00z euro trying to stir up mischief on the 18th and 19th and maybe bigger after that 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Euro with 3 different winter events in 3 days between day 9-11 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 WB 0Z EPS. Looks like we will get our chance(s). 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 29 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro with 3 different winter events in 3 days between day 9-11 Well that's a jumbled kaboodle of waves...good luck figuring that out before Day 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Who's upset? Calling it the way I see it and in light of the concern of too much cold. But I'm not saying it won't snow. I am saying I don't buy Gfs fantasy storms though. That’s the time period we identified though. Day 10-15. Not saying the day 8-9 thing can’t work but its not the best look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The 0z EPS looks active between the 18th and 23rd, with potential for multiple waves. Best chance for frozen initially is to our northwest and then increases in the 21-23 window as the boundary moves southeastward. GEFS is fairly similar and gets cold air in place a bit sooner. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6z GFS gets close here but a little offshore. Any waves prior to that are strung out/suppressed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, CAPE said: 6z GFS gets close here but a little offshore. Any waves prior to that are strung out/suppressed. 6z Gfs is continuous cold and dry, aside from flurries. Edit: Gefs snowfall actually pretty decent. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 They've salted my road into oblivion... So I'd actually welcome a good rain at this point to clear it before our HECS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So we punting thru the last week of January now due to too much cold? Shit the (frozen) blinds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Shit the (frozen) blinds. Too cold in Jan and too warm in Feb. Early March is the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The 6z gefs looks really good day 10-15. Jan 19 Still looks like a rain to snow type wave. Individual runs can’t agree on which wave after but they are shotgunning boundary waves at us with the thermal gradient oriented SW to NE just south of us day 10-15. That’s what we want in this type of pattern. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: 6z Gfs is continuous cold and dry, aside from flurries. Edit: Gefs snowfall actually pretty decent. This fits the trailing wave idea. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: Too cold in Jan and too warm in Feb. Early March is the key. Oh boy lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 It’s gonna be a long few weeks if people react to every operational runs depiction of 200+ hour events. None of these waves will be well resolved until inside 72 hours. They tend to shift around a lot. If there is no NS interference they tend to shift north. If a NS wave ends up over the top in front they tend to shift south. But the boundary isn’t at stable as in a blocking regime. No chance guidance nails these at range. Some are overreacting to noise level changes run to run. look at the ensembles and the general long wave pattern. Don’t react to synoptic specifics. 10 2 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I haven't looked closely at how they do it, but Geps snowfall map is the best of the 3 ensembles. At this range, that's all I need to know. Lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s gonna be a long few weeks if people react to every operational runs depiction of 200+ hour events. None of these waves will be well resolved until inside 72 hours. They tend to shift around a lot. If there is no NS interference they tend to shift north. If a NS wave ends up over the top in front they tend to shift south. But the boundary isn’t at stable as in a blocking regime. No chance guidance nails these at range. Some are overreacting to noise level changes run to run. look at the ensembles and the general long wave pattern. Don’t react to synoptic specifics. Ensembles have the best look for a 5-7 day period I can remember. Hopefully they don't lose it. 6z EuroAI has the 2nd wave with the snow again. Biggest concern for me remains cold overwhelming but that's more based on seasonal pattern/persistence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 24 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Shit the (frozen) blinds. Weenie handbook says when too much cold overwhelms the pattern and we are dry and cold, when the pattern relaxes is when we cash in. That's actually pretty true, all joking aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Jan 19 Still looks like a rain to snow type wave. Someone coined the term "anal front" for this earlier in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Weenie handbook says when too much cold overwhelms the pattern and we are dry and cold, when the pattern relaxes is when we cash in. That's actually pretty true, all joking aside. Last 3-4+ years has taught us that long range models almost exclusively overdo the depth of progressive cold invasions. I don't think it's different this time. Doesn't mean easy snow. Just won't be nearly as easy for GA than current progs show lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I think the 6z Euro Ai about to go off for the 21-22nd . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Heisy said: I think the 6z Euro Ai about to go off for the 21-22nd . That period 21-24 is honking imo across guidance and has been for a couple of days. Alas, things can pop in the short range with these patterns so we wait patiently and continue to monitor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Yeah, front clears around the 20th, left over energy is redeveloped in the SE with cold air in place, still near day 10 though just for entertainment purposes . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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