January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[cbmclean]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Did you mean the year before last?

It was poetic license.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

No political posts!

This was pretty good.  I'll allow it.

[Ji]

This was pretty good.  I'll allow it.

If we get a snowstorm on inauguration day, it’s almost impossible not to talk about politics

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

If we get a snowstorm on inauguration day, it’s almost impossible not to talk about politics

It's possible.  We'll be ok.   It's also MLK day.  It'll be named in honor of him.  The only time I change my avatar is that day.  Kind of important to me for some reason.

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

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That CAD signal is honestly pretty f’ing cool.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

If we get a snowstorm on inauguration day, it’s almost impossible not to talk about politics

Mel Brooks agrees!

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

If we get a snowstorm on inauguration day, it’s almost impossible not to talk about politics

The low flow dripping faucets need to be fixed. I can barely shower anymore.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

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The shape of that second pic kinda looks like...

[LordBaltimore]

48 minutes ago, bncho said:

I'm so young I have zero idea what a good winter was like (except 15-16's winter storm jonas). Maybe I'm getting to witness what the winters of yore were like.

You don't have to go that far back. 2014-2015 was the GOAT. People talk about 09-10 but you can't make up for quality with quantity. 14-15 seemed like whole dmv was transported to new hampshire for two months. Lakes iced over into late march. actual snowpack. If we can get a persistent cold pattern out of the rest of January and into February it would go a long way in proving that 14-15 wasn't just some one off fluke

[King George Dee]

What was the famous "snowplow game" where the grounds crew came out during a snowstorm and plowed the field that allowed the game-winning field goal?  New England vs. ??? I think? Can't recall details offhand but it caused a controversy.

Miami Dolphins. Patriots cheated


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[psuhoffman]

59 minutes ago, bncho said:

I'm so young I have zero idea what a good winter was like (except 15-16's winter storm jonas). Maybe I'm getting to witness what the winters of yore were like.

You’ve been handling it so well. I couldn’t tell. 

[psuhoffman]

54 minutes ago, mattie g said:

The lay CAD signal is honestly pretty f’ing cool.

.5-.8 qpf falls south to north before we lose the mid levels on that scenario. 

[mattie g]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

.5-.8 qpf falls south to north before we lose the mid levels on that scenario. 

Yeah…you can tell we score at least something there. I hate flipping (with a f’ing passion), but we ride the line and accept what happens.

It’s just really neat to see the obvious CAD on a view of the entire continent. Super geeky.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

For me, I have to put the Prince sketch in there right after Rick James.

Last year the SE Ridge crushed my snow hopes...and made me pancakes.

Pop copy was underrated 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Yeah…you can tell we score at least something there. I hate flipping (with a f’ing passion), but we ride the line and accept what happens.

It’s just really neat to see the obvious CAD on a view of the entire continent. Super geeky.

On that run we only briefly lose the surface and most of the heavy precip is gone by then. It’s a 4-8” thump snow to ice to a few hours of drizzle before the cold air freezes everything solid.  Old school we got those things more often. And they were great. 

[Jersey Andrew]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

On that run we only briefly lose the surface and most of the heavy precip is gone by then. It’s a 4-8” thump snow to ice to a few hours of drizzle before the cold air freezes everything solid.  Old school we got those things more often. And they were great. 

Does the pattern show any similarities to January 1994? Seriously doubt DCA goes below zero but ice storms we have not seen since then to that degree.

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Does the pattern show any similarities to January 1994? Seriously doubt DCA goes below zero but ice storms we have not seen since then to that degree.

Yes. There isn’t that much difference between 1994 and 2014 and 2015 honestly.  There was another shorter comp period in Feb 1993 also.  Slight changes in the centering of the features lead to different results. 1994 the trough centered further west which is why it lead to more ice v snow. Even though even up here none of the storms were pure snow I’d love to repeat  that.  According to local coop data it was a string of 3-6” mix events that built a glacier. I remember that winter visiting my cousins in Harper’s ferry WV and they had a solid glacier on the ground all winter!  Fairfax ended up slightly too far south and unfortunate most storms were pure freezing rain.  
 

1993 was similar. 70 north got crushed and it was less favorable further south. again a further west trough axis. But it was really close. 
 

For now I like the axis of the features better, more like 2014 2015. But that’s something to watch out for. If the cold gets centered too far west it opens up the dreaded SER issue.  

[mitchnick]

18z Euro AI now has the first wave next Moday/Tuesday as rain but the front sinks south and a second impulse comes north and probably drops 6"+ based on Dos style maps.

Again, AI jumps all around post 240hrs.

[Heisy]

18z euro Ai through 204 hours, very similar to 12z, could get interesting if N/S races ahead

@mitchnick, I hope when eagles game wraps up Sunday we’re tracking something


.

[Heisy]

18z Euro AI now has the first wave next Moday/Tuesday as rain but the front sinks south and a second impulse comes north and probably drops 6"+ based on Dos style maps.
Again, AI jumps all around post 240hrs.

You beat me lol, yea it depends the speed of those shortwaves, we need to get a little lucky with the spacing as always


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[Heisy]

18z Euro AI now has the first wave next Moday/Tuesday as rain but the front sinks south and a second impulse comes north and probably drops 6"+ based on Dos style maps.
Again, AI jumps all around post 240hrs.

It’s basically a more aggressive and better spaced version of todays 12z gem


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[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, Heisy said:

It’s basically a more aggressive and better spaced version of todays 12z gem


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Whatever it takes to snow the most before time runs out.

[Fozz]

2 hours ago, LordBaltimore said:

You don't have to go that far back. 2014-2015 was the GOAT. People talk about 09-10 but you can't make up for quality with quantity. 14-15 seemed like whole dmv was transported to new hampshire for two months. Lakes iced over into late march. actual snowpack. If we can get a persistent cold pattern out of the rest of January and into February it would go a long way in proving that 14-15 wasn't just some one off fluke

2014-15 was pretty good but 2013-14 was the real GOAT. The closest thing to a wall to wall winter that I’ve ever seen. Especially north of I-70.

[WVclimo]

7 minutes ago, Fozz said:

2014-15 was pretty good but 2013-14 was the real GOAT. The closest thing to a wall to wall winter that I’ve ever seen. Especially north of I-70.

After seeing @psuhoffman mention that J-F 2014 stretch as an analog to the possible upcoming pattern, I pulled up my accumulations from that season.  What a great winter that was for this area.

 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

After seeing @psuhoffman mention that J-F 2014 stretch as an analog to the possible upcoming pattern, I pulled up my accumulations from that season.  What a great winter that was for this area.

 

That’s a lot of lost sleep!

[LordBaltimore]

15 minutes ago, Fozz said:

2014-15 was pretty good but 2013-14 was the real GOAT. The closest thing to a wall to wall winter that I’ve ever seen. Especially north of I-70.

Honestly might have been confusing them. They were both great years. Feb 2015 was when I rode my bike over a frozen lake roland in college though. Will never forget