January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Ralph Wiggum]

44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Absolutely love the 8:30-2:30 orientation thru the TN valley. Really broadens the strike zone compared to similar but steeper amplification. Also slows down exits. You can get a pretty fat storm without deep slp. I'm very optimistic 

Sweet waa overunning look. The thump with those can be impressive. I recall one similar setup in early Feb 1994 or 1996 (sorry been a few years) where it thumped a quick 10" here and wasn't an amped up deep low. These are my fav and least complicated of setups. May the boundary fall as it will!

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, The Ole Bucket said:

The county just to the south of mine here in SE Missouri had an Ice Storm Warning with the Sun/Mon event that absolutely verified. Folks still without power today, now getting socked with 6" of snow today.

Would not recommend.

I mean, I would recommend the snow. I wouldn't recommend the whole being without power for a week and snow covering a half inch of ice thing.

 

Couple of years ago we got three quarters of an inch of ice. Wouldn't recommend that either. No power, no water.

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Sweet waa overunning look. The thump with those can be impressive. I recall one similar setup in early Feb 1994 or 1996 (sorry been a few years) where it thumped a quick 10" here and wasn't an amped up deep low. These are my fav and least complicated of setups. May the boundary fall as it will!

I think the 2/94 event was this one.

https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/11-Feb-94.html

[Maestrobjwa]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Exactly... each of these waves in this type of pattern will depend on where the boundary is as they approach and the easiest way to get a win here is to have a NS SW pass by ahead of one of the waves and suppress the thermal boundary to our south as a STJ wave approaches from the southwest.  

But that kind of intricate balancing act is not the type of thing that will be resolved at long leads like in a blocking regime.  None of those storms in 2014 or 2015 were resolved outside 72 hours.  

I do hope some others in this sub heed your's and Chill's warning about this and be patient......

Ah, who am I kidding? Folks will still be in here Day 5 hand-wringing as usual--may as well be talking to a wall 

[Heisy]

@mitchnick

12z euro Ai, leaves southern energy behind unlike OP, this could lead to N/S prepping a better setup for whatever comes E


.

[Heisy]

Leads to this, major HP up top, but that wave is super strong





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[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Thanks. Do you have 850s for the same period?

That one is ours baby!

[mitchnick]

I hope this isn't pay walled, but the 12z run of the Cfs looks like what is being described of the Eps and Gefs.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025011012&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

If you are wondering what kind of snowfall we're talking, run a loop of the snow depth. Nice.

Even better, it keeps the trough in the east as of 2/10.

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Leads to this, major HP up top, but that wave is super strong





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Looks on the Euro site it starts as snow then goes to something else with the slp passing to our west. Way out there, so no worries.

[Ji]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS is similar...the wave around the 19-20th is iffy, after that any follow up waves in the next week would favor snow given the trough axis and thermal boundary.  

i really want the 20th to be a disaster of a weather day

[Heisy]

Looks on the Euro site it starts as snow then goes to something else with the slp passing to our west. Way out there, so no worries.

.

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Heisy said:

.

Classic WAA thump look 

[psuhoffman]

And in fairness Ji wants everyday to be a weather disaster so…

[Ji]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

See 

no different than wanting a blizzard for football games but this would be on a different level--especially since it would be in the snowhole of DC

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

it has nothing to do with the president. I just think it would make amazing TV

That'd be the best TV in awhile.

[psuhoffman]

He complained in between snowpacalyps and  snowmageddon in 2010 because we went a whole month without a HECS if you can believe that injustice. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

no different than wanting a blizzard for football games but this would be on a different level--especially since it would be in the snowhole of DC

I’m defending you here. Mostly. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

30 minutes ago, Ji said:

i really want the 20th to be a disaster of a weather day

It'll be enough of a disaster as it stands now, no matter the weather!  (skating the political line there, I know!).  But on a weather-related note for the medium range, one does have to like how the overall setup looks as advertised right now.  No, we may not get the first wave (is that the one near the 20th?), but after that...looks like possibilities are good!

[SLPressure]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

See 

LOL. I took the bait. My bad.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

no different than wanting a blizzard for football games but this would be on a different level--especially since it would be in the snowhole of DC

We probably want the same things. I’m just sometimes a little more rational about it. 

[Heisy]

Classic WAA thump look 

Yeah it’s able to happen because the main shortwave that heads over the ridge is dumped into Southwest while N/S races ahead. We’ve seen that happen a lot this year, the current event is an example. Wouldn’t shock me.


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[Ji]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

He complained in between snowpacalyps and  snowmageddon in 2010 because we went a whole month without a HECS if you can believe that injustice. 

we went snowless from Dec 19 to Jan 30...in a historic winter. You cant have that

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m defending you here. Mostly. 

Find a new lawyer JI. Lol

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, SLPressure said:

LOL. I took the bait. My bad.

It’s ok. Ji is a master baiter. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Ji said:

we went snowless from Dec 19 to Jan 30...in a historic winter. You cant have that

Actually in all fairness, that's not really true.  We had a cold clipper go through in early January 2010, before a bit of a thaw over the following couple of weeks.  But even before that was over, indications were pretty clear we were heading back to a cold/blocky pattern.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s ok. Ji is a master baiter. 

Oh my, that's like a blatant @ravensrule bat signal right there!!! 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

we went snowless from Dec 19 to Jan 30...in a historic winter. You cant have that

Not true we got a 1-3” snow in early January but you dismissed that. Dude it’s ok. I’m not picking on you. You be you.  But you gotta admit looking back it was kinda funny to go on a rant about needing snow 3 weeks after we got a hecs for Xmas and while all the models were already showing the next epic pattern developing. 

[stormtracker]

Shouldn't need to say this, but zero zero, no political posts or even political adjacent post on the weather side.  Don't even use political pics, including of any candidate here.  None even in your avatar/profile pic or signature.   Don't care what side you're on. Banter included.

Thanks.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Oh my, that's like a blatant @ravensrule bat signal right there!!! 

Oh ya I lit that sh!t up 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We probably want the same things. I’m just sometimes a little more rational about it. 

 

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

no different than wanting a blizzard for football games but this would be on a different level--especially since it would be in the snowhole of DC

What was the famous "snowplow game" where the grounds crew came out during a snowstorm and plowed the field that allowed the game-winning field goal?  New England vs. ??? I think? Can't recall details offhand but it caused a controversy.