stormtracker Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Gonna be just too warm for us verbatim. At least there's some action going for that time period still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Gonna be just too warm for us verbatim. At least there's some action going for that time period still. look upstairs, could be a follow up wave that does it. EPS shows something similar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 47 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Legit ice storms are super rare - and even when they happen they are usually in pretty narrow corridors. Paging @Eskimo Joe - because he's a bit of a sick puppy and roots for a once in 500 year ice storm at some point. I mean it would be "cool" to experience - but the destructiveness of ice storms and not having power for weeks doesn't sound appealing. I've got a standby generator but not sure it could go weeks running nonstop....it's just a Generac! The county just to the south of mine here in SE Missouri had an Ice Storm Warning with the Sun/Mon event that absolutely verified. Folks still without power today, now getting socked with 6" of snow today. Would not recommend. I mean, I would recommend the snow. I wouldn't recommend the whole being without power for a week and snow covering a half inch of ice thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago I hope. 3 weeks left in the month and yesterday's promising operationals took a night off. I do like a persistent AN precip February forecast from the Cfs for I can't remember how long. Eps weeklies appear to agree with the first half of the month. It looks like the 6z euro Ai was a snowstorm for the 20-21st because it shows the S stream lagging behind the N/S and it creates a sort of anafront. 12z GFS is closer to having that happen, still a few steps away, but if the N/S had pushed a little faster ahead it could have been a colder storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: look upstairs, could be a follow up wave that does it. EPS shows something similar Doesn't work out, but hey...at least we got the action in the favored time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago GGEM has the follow up wave idea give us a little snow. Doesn’t quite get going in time. It all looks like a wave spacing and strength question. I think we want that northern stream wave to be strong enough and separated enough from the southern stream to drag the boundary through and let the southern wave ride up behind it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 55 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Legit ice storms are super rare - and even when they happen they are usually in pretty narrow corridors. Paging @Eskimo Joe - because he's a bit of a sick puppy and roots for a once in 500 year ice storm at some point. I mean it would be "cool" to experience - but the destructiveness of ice storms and not having power for weeks doesn't sound appealing. I've got a standby generator but not sure it could go weeks running nonstop....it's just a Generac! The Nov 2018 ice storm down here Waynesboro/Staunton/Augusta was extremely damaging... Listening to the booms and cracks and crashes - seeing blue flashes across the sky that night was unforgettable ... No electric for about a week...So much damage was done to trees with limbs sheared off that we didn't have much in the way of power outages for a few years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM has the follow up wave idea give us a little snow. Doesn’t quite get going in time. It all looks like a wave spacing and strength question. I think we want that northern stream wave to be strong enough and separated enough from the southern stream to drag the boundary through and let the southern wave ride up behind it. Good catch. We seem to win the most when the boundary is laid ahead of the southern stream energy, but not so far off that we lack enough lift to maximize the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 12z gfs and 6z euro Ai look pretty similar through 200 hours, only difference after that is euroai kind of runs the N/S out ahead while GFS phases it in. Plenty of time for that to change. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM has the follow up wave idea give us a little snow. Doesn’t quite get going in time. It all looks like a wave spacing and strength question. I think we want that northern stream wave to be strong enough and separated enough from the southern stream to drag the boundary through and let the southern wave ride up behind it. Exactly... each of these waves in this type of pattern will depend on where the boundary is as they approach and the easiest way to get a win here is to have a NS SW pass by ahead of one of the waves and suppress the thermal boundary to our south as a STJ wave approaches from the southwest. But that kind of intricate balancing act is not the type of thing that will be resolved at long leads like in a blocking regime. None of those storms in 2014 or 2015 were resolved outside 72 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2). Clipper system Tuesday brings additional minor snow accumulations potentially as far east as the Blue Ridge. From Blacksburg, this is the first I’m seeing or hearing about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said: 2). Clipper system Tuesday brings additional minor snow accumulations potentially as far east as the Blue Ridge. From Blacksburg, this is the first I’m seeing or hearing about this. You didn't hear about the office meeting at 10 this morning either, did you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago And GFS does get us eventually in fantasy range. Busy time coming up I think! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I like the following wave idea, given the way the pattern looks to evolve. Mentioned this in my post this morning. Based on current guidance the thermal boundary most likely will be to our NW for the threat around the 20th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You didn't hear about the office meeting at 10 this morning either, did you? Never do. As per my last email. Lolol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: And GFS does get us eventually in fantasy range. Busy time coming up I think! GFS actually shows how that kind of pattern, if it actually ends up close to the current longwave projections, would likely play out. 3 waves, one misses north, one south, and one flush hit. They aren't all going to take the same exact track and if we get that kind of SW to NE oriented thermal boundary with the cold centered to our NW we are likely to score eventually as those waves keep riding the boundary. They wont all hit, but they won't likely all miss either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 12z GFS is a just a little chilly. Amazing how stable the Ak ridge is even on the op run. We may run the entire month of Jan without a real relaxation to the cold if that look holds. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: And GFS does get us eventually in fantasy range. Busy time coming up I think! That wave looks really nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Euro close to something 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago lol that's inauguration day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Euro close to something It'll come south. I honestly believe that fwliw. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It'll come south. I honestly believe that fwliw. Congrats Orlando 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago On the GEFS the wave around the 19-20 is the most iffy wrt thermals, but the GEFS would indicate we would likely be on the snowy side of any waves in the week after that. EPS details still rolling in 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago eps looks good 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago EPS is similar...the wave around the 19-20th is iffy, after that any follow up waves in the next week would favor snow given the trough axis and thermal boundary. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: eps looks good Thanks. Do you have 850s for the same period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago EPS looks good for the period of Jan 20-25 but not focused on any one wave...there is a bit of an uptick around the 21st compared to the rest of the period. But it favors some wave sliding by under us during that window. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Thanks. Do you have 850s for the same period? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The thermal boundary is oriented and located almost exactly where I would want it for this type of pattern to work. Have to see if that ends up being the reality but I have no issue with the current projections. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The thermal boundary is oriented and located almost exactly where I would want it for this type of pattern to work. Have to see if that ends up being the reality but I have no issue with the current projections. Absolutely love the 8:30-2:30 orientation thru the TN valley. Really broadens the strike zone compared to similar but steeper amplification. Also slows down exits. You can get a pretty fat storm without deep slp. I'm very optimistic 8 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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