Ji Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Looking for a snowstorm in fantasy land. It's not like we're chasing anything else.Pbp at 11 days out. You’re going to be wrecked by Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, Ji said: Pbp at 11 days out. You’re going to be wrecked by Tuesday It was 4 posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: yup..4-8 Just your average backend 4-8 inches of snow from a cutter after 1-2 inches of torrential 35 degree rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It was 4 posts The guy who's wrecked by Columbus day is worried about your 4 posts and the hidden meaning behind them, friend. 3 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 This 6-10” storm we just had was a cutter and rain for us 10-ish days out. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 47 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's pretty interesting really. If we stay cold d10+ it will be for different reasons. So we currently have a pretty epic/classic block period that looks to relax into *potentially* a +AO and deeply negative EPO. It's like a highlight reel of the large scale longwave patterns that bring us cold temps and maybe ok snow lol. Historically, a progressive -EPO isn't something we want for snowfall but the 2013-15 stretch is either a clue that it's more favorable nowadays or it was lucky AF and a return to regularly scheduled programming of warm/wet -> cold/dry is more likely lol. I think it depends on other variables. An epo alone still won’t do it. Especially if the epo is linked to a wpo ridge with a full latitude central pac ridge. That leads to too much SER. The key to 2014 and 2015 were other variables going our way. In both the pacific had a trough under the ridge. We have that now although super long range guidance wants to establish a canonical Nina look but I don’t buy it until it gets inside 15 days. It’s been stuck at day 17-20 all year. 2014 there was a ridge from the epo over the pole that depressed the trough in the east. 2015 a TPV lobe got stuck in Quebec doing the same. Those were critical factors in making those years work. We seem to have some of those same factors on long range guidance. My interest in the pattern goes beyond the epo but there are other more critical similarities to 2014-2015 as well. Those matter more imo than the epo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 9 hours ago, stormtracker said: Verbatim...rain. Wish we had that H5 look for this weekend Thank God it's gonna be different with the 6z run The storm that just fringed me to the south was rain on all guidance at this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 JB says MJO flips and goes hostile for the East in wks 3/4 and stays that way through February. Looks like winter's almost over. With some luck I'll get to climo if I can get another inch or so out of this weekend event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, IronTy said: JB says MJO flips and goes hostile for the East in wks 3/4 and stays that was through February. Looks like winter's almost over. With some luck I'll get to climo if I can get another inch or so out of this weekend event. Why should anyone care what that clown thinks. He is a joke. I’m glad he thinks it’s gonna be bad. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6z euro Ai, keeps up the signal for around the 20th. As is it verbatim it’s a front end thump to mix or rain, with a huge hit for N&W, but it wouldn’t change much to make this a big dog for everyone. Better push from N/S ahead of the main low. Could also trend worse or all be make believe at this range, but the euro Ai has been pretty damn good at picking up storm threats. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Why should anyone care what that clown thinks. He is a joke. I’m glad he thinks it’s gonna be bad. To be fair he's basing that off the JMA forecasting phases 4/5. Assuming the JMA is right I agree with him that it'll be hard to overcome that hostile a regime. Maybe we get something big just as it flips, or maybe the JMA is wrong and it doesn't flip. We'll know in a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 29 minutes ago, IronTy said: JB says MJO flips and goes hostile for the East in wks 3/4 and stays that way through February. Looks like winter's almost over. With some luck I'll get to climo if I can get another inch or so out of this weekend event. Not so fast... I just saw a new trade wind plot and it appears that trades might want to push W of the dateline well into the eastern half of the MC. If this pans out, that will suppress convection over the MC and keep it westward into the IO (phases 2-3) with a little forcing over the eastern pacific. This is the kind of "split forcing" we've been getting almost the whole winter rather than the dreaded 4-5-6 warm phase forcing. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 30 minutes ago, Heisy said: 6z euro Ai, keeps up the signal for around the 20th. As is it verbatim it’s a front end thump to mix or rain, with a huge hit for N&W, but it wouldn’t change much to make this a big dog for everyone. Better push from N/S ahead of the main low. Could also trend worse or all be make believe at this range, but the euro Ai has been pretty damn good at picking up storm threats . For those here who don't know or aren't sure (or need a reminder)... AIFS is deterministic AI model that uses the operational ECMWF as initial conditions. It is not an ensemble model, nor an ensemble member, which is pretty amazing since ensembles tend to perform better at long leads. AIFS might be picking out good "analogs" and extrapolating what happens after each analog as a composite, and doing an excellent job at that. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1877356736488652849 Tomer likes late Jan for Mid Atlantic snowstorm potential 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, frd said: https://x.com/burgwx/status/1877356736488652849 Tomer likes late Jan for Mid Atlantic snowstorm potential I'm not a fan of the PR regime in general. Maybe it's not as hostile if there is a trough underneath the ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I'm not a fan of the PR regime in general. Maybe it's not as hostile if there is a trough underneath the ridge. I checked the EPS weekly clusters for Jan 23-Feb 7 (sorry, can't share or I'll get in trouble), and 60% does have a pacific ridge, but with some extension northward into western AK, and some troughiness into the midwest and east. It's not as bad a look as we might expect. 40% is SE ridge. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 13 minutes ago, Terpeast said: For those here who don't know or aren't sure (or need a reminder)... AIFS is deterministic AI model that uses the operational ECMWF as initial conditions. It is not an ensemble model, nor an ensemble member, which is pretty amazing since ensembles tend to perform better at long leads. AIFS might be picking out good "analogs" and extrapolating what happens after each analog as a composite, and doing an excellent job at that. I hope for my sake and the sake of a lot of other weather peeps, that the people in charge don't forget that these things are still dependent on physical modeling systems and will be for a very very long time. It's not "AI magically takes raw data and transforms it into forecasts", it's more like the numerical modeling system does the data assimilation - using an ensemble - and then the analysis is used as input for a ML model trained off of ERA5 (also produced with a numerical modeling system). The quality of AI forecasts directly scales based on the quality of the numerical model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, LordBaltimore said: I hope for my sake and the sake of a lot of other weather peeps, that the people in charge don't forget that these things are still dependent on physical modeling systems and will be for a very very long time. It's not "AI magically takes raw data and transforms it into forecasts", it's more like the numerical modeling system does the data assimilation - using an ensemble - and then the analysis is used as input for a ML model trained off of ERA5 (also produced with a numerical modeling system). The quality of AI forecasts directly scales based on the quality of the numerical model. Of course. It's the same for any AI/ML system or use case. What comes out of it is only as good as the data that goes in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 For those here who don't know or aren't sure (or need a reminder)... AIFS is deterministic AI model that uses the operational ECMWF as initial conditions. It is not an ensemble model, nor an ensemble member, which is pretty amazing since ensembles tend to perform better at long leads. AIFS might be picking out good "analogs" and extrapolating what happens after each analog as a composite, and doing an excellent job at that.Thanks for this info, been tracking it all winter and it’s been really freaking good, the last event and the current one it basically settled in on placement by day 4-5 and didn’t wiggle much from there. What’s interesting is the graphics look a little smoothed out like it is an ensemble mean. Does anyone with SV have the snow map from the 6z run for this event? Just curious what it showed . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I checked the EPS weekly clusters for Jan 23-Feb 7 (sorry, can't share or I'll get in trouble), and 60% does have a pacific ridge, but with some extension northward into western AK, and some troughiness into the midwest and east. It's not as bad a look as we might expect. 40% is SE ridge. In this area we still appear to have a decent delivery method for cold. I am not worried about rain at this time for the potential system near the 20 th. Meanwhile, nationwide snow cover continues to expand, more so with the southern system next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: Thanks for this info, been tracking it all winter and it’s been really freaking good, the last event and the current one it basically settled in on placement by day 4-5 and didn’t wiggle much from there. What’s interesting is the graphics look a little smoothed out like it is an ensemble mean. Does anyone with SV have the snow map from the 6z run for this event? Just curious what it showed . Heisey, I agree it has done well inside 4-5 days, but it has jumped all around beyond day 10, less so between 7-10. The Eps have done a very good job with the pattern since mid-November, if not excellent. Terpeast, you're are spot on with the MJO. I thought the JMA had a decent last year, but this year Gefs and Eps have definitely done better. Eps weeklies as of yesterday's run were only modestly AN for claround the first half of February, with N to AN precip. I think we can score the first half, if only modestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 9 minutes ago, Heisy said: Thanks for this info, been tracking it all winter and it’s been really freaking good, the last event and the current one it basically settled in on placement by day 4-5 and didn’t wiggle much from there. What’s interesting is the graphics look a little smoothed out like it is an ensemble mean. Does anyone with SV have the snow map from the 6z run for this event? Just curious what it showed . The smoothing is probably from averaging across analog matches above a certain confidence interval. Like taking rollforward maps of 10 different analog matches (for example) and then averaging them all together. Probably an oversimplification, but you get the idea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Heisey, I agree it has done well inside 4-5 days, but it has jumped all around beyond day 10, less so between 7-10. The Eps have done a very good job with the pattern since mid-November, if not excellent. Terpeast, you're are spot on with the MJO. I thought the JMA had a decent last year, but this year Gefs and Eps have definitely done better. Eps weeklies as of yesterday's run were only modestly AN for claround the first half of February, with N to AN precip. I think we can score the first half, if only modestly. Right, once it gets to around day 5-6 it starts locking up pretty well. Sunday will bring the 20th day 7 so hopefully by then maybe we’re tracking something. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 46 minutes ago, IronTy said: To be fair he's basing that off the JMA forecasting phases 4/5. Assuming the JMA is right I agree with him that it'll be hard to overcome that hostile a regime. Maybe we get something big just as it flips, or maybe the JMA is wrong and it doesn't flip. We'll know in a couple weeks. He relies too much on the MJO, which is just one factor not THE factor. He also has been wrong so much lately, but worse than that, I've become convinced he is dishonest, because over the years he has said things that I KNOW he knows is not true, used certain indicators in opposite ways to fit a narrative. Now I will admit usually that narrative is the opposite and he is hyping cold and snow, but he did make a forecast for a warm low snow winter so maybe now he is just trying to fit that narrative. I dont know, but given his track record over the last decade or so...not sure how anyone can trust anything he says anymore. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 38 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not so fast... I just saw a new trade wind plot and it appears that trades might want to push W of the dateline well into the eastern half of the MC. If this pans out, that will suppress convection over the MC and keep it westward into the IO (phases 2-3) with a little forcing over the eastern pacific. This is the kind of "split forcing" we've been getting almost the whole winter rather than the dreaded 4-5-6 warm phase forcing. I am not an MJO expert nor do I pour over the forcing plots with the same regularity as some of the MJO zealots, however, I've noted over the years a pattern where the MJO tends to "fit in with" the pattern not necessarily drive it in a different direction. Its symbiotic. When we've been stuck in crap winters waiting for some MJO wave to save us, it never does, even when it gets into the central pacific there ends up being conflicting forcing in the MC running interference or the wave is too weak to effectively impact the pattern or some other such excuse. And many many moons ago when we used to get good winters...the same would happen in the other direction...we had somewhat hostile MJO waves in good winters that failed to wreck the pattern in the same way as a hostile wave in a bad winter would. Because, as you pointed out, there is some residual conflicting forcing still in a favorable place or whatever reason, but the base state is usually harder to break than simply "here comes the MJO". If it was that simple we would all be better forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I am not an MJO expert nor do I pour over the forcing plots with the same regularity as some of the MJO zealots, however, I've noted over the years a pattern where the MJO tends to "fit in with" the pattern not necessarily drive it in a different direction. Its symbiotic. When we've been stuck in crap winters waiting for some MJO wave to save us, it never does, even when it gets into the central pacific there ends up being conflicting forcing in the MC running interference or the wave is too weak to effectively impact the pattern or some other such excuse. And many many moons ago when we used to get good winters...the same would happen in the other direction...we had somewhat hostile MJO waves in good winters that failed to wreck the pattern in the same way as a hostile wave in a bad winter would. Because, as you pointed out, there is some residual conflicting forcing still in a favorable place or whatever reason, but the base state is usually harder to break than simply "here comes the MJO". If it was that simple we would all be better forecasters. Well put, but La Nina + -PDO + bad MJO leave me with low expectations for FEB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Wasn’t the MJO cycling through phases 4-5-6 during December when it was below-normal cold nearly the entire month ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: boo, hiss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Wasn’t the MJO cycling through phases 4-5-6 during December when it was below-normal cold nearly the entire month ? yup, didn't matter at all. the MJO isn't a silver bullet as much as some here would make you believe 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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