January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[IronTy]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I wonder how many people here don’t realize that thermal map posted is in Celsius?

Doesn't it say 2m DegF right on it?   

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I wonder how many people here don’t realize that thermal map posted is in Celsius?

None?

[BristowWx]

Just now, IronTy said:

Doesn't it say 2m DegF right on it?   

yep 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I wonder how many people here don’t realize that thermal map posted is in Celsius?

get it together 

[BristowWx]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

None?

None because its in F.  well maybe none.  Someone might think its C

[Interstate]

You are all falling for his joke... We need to do better...

[adelphi_sky]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

You are all falling for his joke... We need to do better...

I know. I fell for the 38" snow map for DC. We need to be treated for lack-of-snow anxiety.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

None because its in F.  well maybe none.  Someone might think its C

I was thinking most of us can read and there was nothing to realize or not realize regarding Celsius 

[Lowershoresadness]

which map shows Kelvin

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

I know. I fell for the 38" snow map for DC. We need to be treated for lack-of-snow anxiety.

Fair enough.  I need meds.  

[somecallmetim]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was skiing a day at Steamboat when it was about -20 once.  It was cold lol.  I spent a little more time drinking than skiing that day.  

I saw -28 twice in Vermont back in the early 90s. The second time, a storm cut west and it warmed up and rained the following day, which shows that cosmic injustice and heartbreak comes even to the North Country.  

[psuhoffman]

I liked what the GGEM was doing at day 10 

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I liked what the GGEM was doing at day 10 

is there any HECS potential in the next go around or are we looking at 8-12 inch deals again?

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

is there any HECS potential in the next go around or are we looking at 8-12 inch deals again?

You kinda make it sound like 8-12 inches is just whatever.

[RDM]

The coldest I've ever experienced in my 63+ years is -38F - in N. Dakota.  Everyone carried two sets of car keys because they had to leave their cars running when going somewhere or they'd never get them to start again in the cold.  Was normal to see a parking lot full of cars and trucks running while everyone had dinner.  Temperatures that cold do strange things to metal and mechanical machinery.  We were lucky our Beechcraft started again when it was time to depart, after thawing out with a preheater for several hours.  Don't ever care to repeat it. 

Growing up in Ohio,  one year we didn't get above freezing the entire month of Jan. (don't remember the year, think it was Jan 77 when DC got hit hard).  The frost line went down 5 feet that year, which cracked foundations and caused mayhem with water mains.  One of the worse jobs I've ever witnessed was those poor guys down in the bottom of trenches repairing busted water mains in -20+F weather.  They had to thaw the frozen ground with blow torches and slowly skim away the thawed ground with backhoes and jackhammers to reach the busted pipes.  Will never forget the look on their faces...  

[Ruin]

44 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

A lot of these old water mains too!

So the cold just got pushed back?

[dallen7908]

5 minutes ago, RDM said:

The coldest I've ever experienced in my 63+ years is -38F - in N. Dakota.  Everyone carried two sets of car keys because they had to leave their cars running when going somewhere or they'd never get them to start again in the cold.  Was normal to see a parking lot full of cars and trucks running while everyone had dinner.  Temperatures that cold do strange things to metal and mechanical machinery.  We were lucky our Beechcraft started again when it was time to depart, after thawing out with a preheater for several hours.  Don't ever care to repeat it. 

Growing up in Ohio,  one year we didn't get above freezing the entire month of Jan. (don't remember the year, think it was Jan 77 when DC got hit hard).  The frost line went down 5 feet that year, which cracked foundations and caused mayhem with water mains.  One of the worse jobs I've ever witnessed was those poor guys down in the bottom of trenches repairing busted water mains in -20+F weather.  They had to thaw the frozen ground with blow torches and slowly skim away the thawed ground with backhoes and jackhammers to reach the busted pipes.  Will never forget the look on their faces...  

I grew up about 40 miles northeast of Waterloo.  1977 was the coolest January in the history of Waterloo, Iowa. The average daily high temperature was 11.7 °F, and the average low was -11.9 °F.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

is there any HECS potential in the next go around or are we looking at 8-12 inch deals again?

There is a reason 90% of our HECS storms come in a true el nino year.  There is a component missing here to get those kinds of widespread 20" totals no matter how "nino ish" the pattern might be.  We've had one fluke cold enso HECS in the last 50 years.  There could always be a fluke again, it happens, but realistically our high end potential in any non nino year is typically MECS.  

[Heisy]

12z. It's out on the Euro site. You just have to piece it together.
https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]}

This could obv change, but I see a cutter around the 18th that ushers in another shot of cold air and confluence, and depending on how the shortwaves break apart over the epo ridge determines what comes around the 20th.


.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This could obv change, but I see a cutter around the 18th that ushers in another shot of cold air and confluence, and depending on how the shortwaves break apart over the epo ridge determines what comes around the 20th.


.

If something amplifies around the 18th there is a risk of a cutter there...but its very possible nothing does and we just get a frontal passage.  

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You missed the point. The BN has verified in the LR, sure. The much BN arctic blasts have not.

I know, I was assuming that was a negative comment and my counterpoint is given the issues we are having with suppression would you really want it colder?

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is a reason 90% of our HECS storms come in a true el nino year.  There is a component missing here to get those kinds of widespread 20" totals no matter how "nino ish" the pattern might be.  We've had one fluke cold enso HECS in the last 50 years.  There could always be a fluke again, it happens, but realistically our high end potential in any non nino year is typically MECS.  

Which one was that?

[Eskimo Joe]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Which one was that?

Jan 1996. The King.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Jan 1996. The King.

Ah of course! Dang it that was joyfully obvious, lol

[Interstate]

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Jan 1996. The King.

I loved that storm.  I was living in southern Carroll County.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Interstate said:

I loved that storm.  I was living in southern Carroll County.

Local coop near here reported 36” but I’ve been told my locals it was even more than that. 

[toolsheds]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Local coop near here reported 36” but I’ve been told my locals it was even more than that. 

I lived about a mile from where PSU now lives.  Had to commute to the Metro to go to working Baltimore.  I remember snow drifts along rt. 30 that were almost as tall as the telephone/power lines where the snow blew from the open fields.  

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Local coop near here reported 36” but I’ve been told my locals it was even more than that. 

1996 seems to get alot more love than Jan 2016 but i thought Jan 2016 was the perfect storm. Almost 40 inches in Leesburg

[psuhoffman]

That’s my route everyday. That exposed area just south of Hampstead is bad sometimes.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

1996 seems to get alot more love than Jan 2016 but i thought Jan 2016 was the perfect storm. Almost 40 inches in Leesburg

2016 was better for NW VA. Crazy deform band that set up there. 1996 was better for my area. On the whole they had similar snowfall distributions but 1996 was colder the week after and included 2 more snowfalls right after so that probably feeds into the nostalgia of that period.