January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

Arctic Hammer...sounds like the stage name for a pron star from Lapland.

 

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

Sounds like we have the same viewing habits. 

[Heisy]

I’d roll with this look




.

[mattie g]

Euro has a ridiculously energetic vort dropping into Montana/North Dakota at 324. Fun to look at. Would be cool to see it phase with the energy over the Gulf...

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

I’d roll with this look




.

I imagine a nice WSW-ENE overrunning event with that gradient pattern. Classic N/W suburbs event with i-95 riding the R/S/mix line

[mitchnick]

Fyi, that cold shot has been on all medium range guidance for days, so consider something along the lines of the operational Euro to be credible. 

[WxUSAF]

39 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, Euro has it.   Looks like the 20th it is.

MECS-LK Day (tm)

[TSSN+]

23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Fyi, that cold shot has been on all medium range guidance for days, so consider something along the lines of the operational Euro to be credible. 

Heh I’ll pass. lol 

[Eskimo Joe]

12 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Heh I’ll pass. lol 

Gimme.

[mitchnick]

Fwiw, 12z Euro AI has an overrunning event start around 330hrs and we're on the wrong side.

But the EuroAI does jump around past 240hrs. 0z, fwiw, looked like today's 12z snow.

[Heisy]

Fwiw, 12z Euro AI has an overrunning event start around 330hrs and we're on the wrong side.
But the EuroAI does jump around past 240hrs. 0z, fwiw, looked like today's 12z snow.

Did you mean the 6z or the 12z cause the 12z isn’t out on wxbell yet


.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Did you mean the 6z or the 12z cause the 12z isn’t out on wxbell yet


.

12z. It's out on the Euro site. You just have to piece it together.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]}

[Ruin]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Is it the same Arctic Hammer that was progged for Jan 11 at D+12 lead? 

Temps are not forecast to be much below my lowest high is 29. Most this week low 30s dunno why the temp guidance pushed out 15 to 25 below normal 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Did you want it colder and more surpressed?

You missed the point. The BN has verified in the LR, sure. The much BN arctic blasts have not.

[Ruin]

11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You missed the point. The BN has verified in the LR, sure. The much BN arctic blasts have not.

I'm saying it isn't as cold as molded so shouldnt be this suppressed 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Yessir. Temp wise the pattern looks pretty much climo norms with a bias towards colder to me. But it also looks like the storm track could be anywhere along the eastern 3rd of the country. We are in the heart of cold snow climo with the minimum temp anomaly required. Timing is good for the general setup.

Down the line keeps looking more and more like jan/Feb 2014-15 lol. The ultimate progression would be a couple weeks of the +tnh pattern followed by a -AO/NAO reload. Hahaha

We're on the same page...hopefully its a good page.  

[wlantry]

 

Forgive me, but what is this map predicting? -5 degrees in DC? My greenhouse would be under severe pressure!

[dailylurker]

Just now, wlantry said:

 

Forgive me, but what is this map predicting? -5 degrees in DC? My greenhouse would be under severe pressure!

I flip to propane when it gets below 20. Gotta run the dehumidifier along with it. These weenie cold maps never verify. Maybe in 2014-15 or that March outbreak in like 2018. 

[psuhoffman]

59 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Heh I’ll pass. lol 

I'm gonna have to start a gofundme page for my heating bill 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Ruin said:

I'm saying it isn't as cold as molded so shouldnt be this suppressed 

Suppression is about the flow in the longwave pattern not the temperatures.  Yes there is correlation between the two since the type of longwave pattern that is suppressive is also conducive to cold in general, but there its not a 1:1 relationship and you can get an extremely suppressive flow without arctic air.  

[wlantry]

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I flip to propane when it gets below 20. Gotta run the dehumidifier along with it. These weenie cold maps never verify. Maybe in 2014-15 or that March outbreak in like 2018. 

Built the greenhouse myself, so I never have to heat it. It's fine down to 10F. If it's going to get down to 5F, I put a little 250 watt heater in there, just to make myself feel better. No problems the five winters since I built it. But at minus 5, all bets are off. I really hope I'm misreading that map!

[Bob Chill]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We're on the same page...hopefully its a good page.  

If ens got d13-15 right, it will be pretty cold but progressive. I know you know this but when models start spitting out rain chasing fleeing cold others (Ji...) should be expecting lol. It can dump of course but it's an awful pattern for long lead tracking lol 

[adelphi_sky]

11 minutes ago, wlantry said:

 

Forgive me, but what is this map predicting? -5 degrees in DC? My greenhouse would be under severe pressure!

I was about to ask the same. I had to look to confirm it said 2m. That cold will make you cough when you inhale. I experienced negative temps ONCE in my life. While visiting Anderson, IN. My car therm read -2. It was a BMW. Didn't know they went below zero. lol

[blizzardmeiser]

20 minutes ago, wlantry said:

 

Forgive me, but what is this map predicting? -5 degrees in DC? My greenhouse would be under severe pressure!

14 days away, it will modify.

[Bob Chill]

10 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

I was about to ask the same. I had to look to confirm it said 2m. That cold will make you cough when you inhale. I experienced negative temps ONCE in my life. While visiting Anderson, IN. My car therm read -2. It was a BMW. Didn't know they went below zero. lol

When I lived in the rockies we got used to cold down to -5 regularly. You can dress for it and keep the wind off you so it was "workable".  But when arctic air did drop down (not as common as you would think), we'd have like a week straight of lows in the valleys at 15 to 25 below. -25 is dumb. There is nothing good about it lol. 

I once had a tear freeze my eyelashes together and couldn't open an eye. My bare hand stuck to the steering wheel once lol and whenever you breathed through your nose, it would freeze your sniffles instantly lol. It was novel but not much fun. Plus it couldn't really snow much below zero. Air was too cold to hold enough moisture.  

[adelphi_sky]

23 minutes ago, wlantry said:

 

Forgive me, but what is this map predicting? -5 degrees in DC? My greenhouse would be under severe pressure!

A lot of these old water mains too!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, adelphi_sky said:

A lot of these old water mains too!

We were forecast to get close to zero this week on some of those Euro runs about 10-14 days ago, and now what's it look like the coldest day in DC will be?  Will we even get below 20 tonight?

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill

Regarding 2014-2015, using the euro here but the idea looks really close on all 3 ensembles right now.  

Day 15

This continues to look even more like those years everyday.  

2014:2015 Composite 

Right now if we want to get overly specific I like the longwave configuration a little more than 2015 and maybe SLIGHTLY A SMIDGE less than 2014, not a bad spot to fall lol.  

The key to this being different from the -PDO hell we've been in recently is that trough in the central pacific which has been consistent across guidance and in reality.  Yes the north pacific has a ridge into the WPO which isn't what we want if we are looking at every pattern driver in a vacuum, but it doesn't work that way.  There are a ton of drivers and they are not all going to be perfect at the same time.  

That trough there in central pacific underneath the ridge prevents a downstream trough from digging into the SW US.  It allows the cold to be directed into the east instead of digging into the west.  It's a radically different reaction to a ridge in the WPO.  

This was the issue with recent years...

There was a full latitude ridge at that longitude which caused a full longitude trough into the western US which in turn pumped the SER.  Even once the current pattern retrogrades into a classic TNH look this is radically different from when we had a central pacific ridge in recent years.  Not all TNH patterns are the same and that piece in the central pacific is a big key to our chances.  

 

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

When I lived in the rockies we got used to cold down to -5 regularly. You can dress for it and keep the wind off you so it was "workable".  But when arctic air did drop down (not as common as you would think), we'd have like a week straight of lows in the valleys at 15 to 25 below. -25 is dumb. There is nothing good about it lol. 

I once had a tear freeze my eyelashes together and couldn't open an eye. My bare hand stuck to the steering wheel once lol and whenever you breathed through your nose, it would freeze your sniffles instantly lol. It was novel but not much fun. Plus it couldn't really snow much below zero. Air was too cold to hold enough moisture.  

It went down to -13 at Rochester when I went to college there. I made the stupid mistake of wiping snow off my car handle barehanded. It felt similar to putting my hand on a hot stove. Cold burns are real. Luckily it wasn't full on frostbite.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

When I lived in the rockies we got used to cold down to -5 regularly. You can dress for it and keep the wind off you so it was "workable".  But when arctic air did drop down (not as common as you would think), we'd have like a week straight of lows in the valleys at 15 to 25 below. -25 is dumb. There is nothing good about it lol. 

I once had a tear freeze my eyelashes together and couldn't open an eye. My bare hand stuck to the steering wheel once lol and whenever you breathed through your nose, it would freeze your sniffles instantly lol. It was novel but not much fun. Plus it couldn't really snow much below zero. Air was too cold to hold enough moisture.  

I was skiing a day at Steamboat when it was about -20 once.  It was cold lol.  I spent a little more time drinking than skiing that day.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

I wonder how many people here don’t realize that thermal map posted is in Celsius?