January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[stormtracker]

Def a better run.  Precip def more west and north of 6z   Still to be determined if that precip makes it up to us.  Well some of it.

[WxUSAF]

I’d recommend putting this Saturday stuff in the new thread. Save this for our MLK weekend MECS 

[stormtracker]

of course when it looks good, that northern vort is doing it's thing and shunting.   Fucker

[TSSN+]

Looking forward to 6 flurries Saturday morning. 

[TSSN+]

Ukmet solution from yesterday pretty much looking like it may be right as models showing that solution now. It was pretty good for the last storm too though a little too far south initially it had me in 3” max inside 72hrs 

 

[dallen7908]

EPS Signal for the 20th - 22nd is still pretty weak.   Note: Numbers show 24-hour snow fall totals for every other six-hour period   Coloring shows 24-hour snow fall totals every six-hours. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, dallen7908 said:

EPS Signal for the 20th - 22nd is still pretty weak.   Note: Numbers show 24-hour snow fall totals for every other six-hour period   Coloring shows 24-hour snow fall totals every six-hours. 

If you don't mind, post the same with precip and not snowfall. Would give a good snapshot at rain risk with juicier solutions. 

[kdskidoo]

10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ukmet solution from yesterday pretty much looking like it may be right as models showing that solution now. It was pretty good for the last storm too though a little too far south initially it had me in 3” max inside 72hrs 

 

so the shred factory claims 2 victims so far in the new year.

[dallen7908]

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Looks like at least some snow is favored in the majority of the juicy solutions but they are likely mixed events. Unusually trong agreement d10+ that a precip maker hits during the 20th window. Pretty tight grouping for long range. Should consolidate over the coming days. Hopefully the snow idea consolidates with it lol

[Ji]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks like at least some snow is favored in the majority of the juicy solutions but they are likely mixed events. Unusually trong agreement d10+ that a precip maker hits during the 20th window. Pretty tight grouping for long range. Should consolidate over the coming days. Hopefully the snow idea consolidates with it lol

ive seen worse snowfall charts lol.....my mean i think now is 4.

 

AIFS shows a clipper next week: 

[Terpeast]

34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks like at least some snow is favored in the majority of the juicy solutions but they are likely mixed events. Unusually trong agreement d10+ that a precip maker hits during the 20th window. Pretty tight grouping for long range. Should consolidate over the coming days. Hopefully the snow idea consolidates with it lol

We may get an appetizer on the 17th. Probably that clipper Ji mentioned

[Paleocene]

OP GFS has a juicy southern wave rolling out of texas and thru the gulf states around D10, so, aligning with the EPS's idea of something headed our way around the 19-20th. In OP la-la land its too warm.

[snowmagnet]

A crippling storm on Inauguration Day would work. 

[psuhoffman]

We have to flirt with "maybe too warm" to have a good chance at a storm at all.  These things don't have 1000 mile wide snow swaths...if the pattern is so suppressive that there is absolutely no chance of rain here it means we probably have no chance at snow either lol.  Once we get closer you can hone in on those details, but from day 10-15 to have a good chance of precip we probably have to be close enough to the boundary that rain is always a risk.  Just have to roll the dice.  

[psuhoffman]

To clarify, being in a generally good pattern but close to the boundary such that rain v snow is a debate is NOT the same as being in a crap pattern where its 99% likely to be rain in any precip event.  Storms ride the thermal boundary so we are always flirting with rain v snow in any legit threat from day 10.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We have to flirt with "maybe too warm" to have a good chance at a storm at all.  These things don't have 1000 mile wide snow swaths...if the pattern is so suppressive that there is absolutely no chance of rain here it means we probably have no chance at snow either lol.  Once we get closer you can hone in on those details, but from day 10-15 to have a good chance of precip we probably have to be close enough to the boundary that rain is always a risk.  Just have to roll the dice.  

Given the cold being forecast to persist we could win the thermals coin flip.

[TSSN+]

Cause I’m bored. Euro with the smoke At day 11. 

[Bob Chill]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

To clarify, being in a generally good pattern but close to the boundary such that rain v snow is a debate is NOT the same as being in a crap pattern where its 99% likely to be rain in any precip event.  Storms ride the thermal boundary so we are always flirting with rain v snow in any legit threat from day 10.  

Yessir. Temp wise the pattern looks pretty much climo norms with a bias towards colder to me. But it also looks like the storm track could be anywhere along the eastern 3rd of the country. We are in the heart of cold snow climo with the minimum temp anomaly required. Timing is good for the general setup.

Down the line keeps looking more and more like jan/Feb 2014-15 lol. The ultimate progression would be a couple weeks of the +tnh pattern followed by a -AO/NAO reload. Hahaha

[Ruin]

I wish we h ad more accurate models more then 2 days out 

[stormtracker]

Yeah, Euro has it.   Looks like the 20th it is.

[Heisy]

I wish we h ad more accurate models more then 2 days out 

It was really only the GFS that was showing the fantasy event. When the GFS is alone on a mountain like that you usually have to ignore it. cmc had a moderate event for 2-3 runs. The euro and euro Ai have been pretty solid on this event for a while. I think the euro had 1-2 runs where it blew it up, but other than that it’s been pretty good. They gave us a signal of a wave at this time frame going back 10+ days, that’s pretty good to me.

Meanwhile, 12z euro has my Jan 20 snow event.


.

[midatlanticweather]

4 minutes ago, Ruin said:

I wish we h ad more accurate models more then 2 days out 

I have mixed feelings on this. I do wish we had better models, but they are pretty dang amazing! The many variables that are challenges for storms makes the hunt and chase fun too.. the issue is, we do not bag many storms. It is the reality. BUT it is all a learning thing. The hunt, to me, is very exciting.. I love a good snow and I love watching it fall and the way it coats everything.... BUT IMMEDIATELY - I am checking models for the next system.. it is like crack! LOL! 

 

[HighStakes]

Then the Arctic hammer behind the storm on the 20th.

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Then the Arctic hammer behind the storm on the 20th.

Is it the same Arctic Hammer that was progged for Jan 11 at D+12 lead? 

[cbmclean]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Is it the same Arctic Hammer that was progged for Jan 11 at D+12 lead? 

Did you want it colder and more surpressed?

[mattie g]

18 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Then the Arctic hammer behind the storm on the 20th.

Arctic Hammer...sounds like the stage name for a pron star from Lapland.

[ravensrule]

Just now, mattie g said:

Arctic Hammer...sounds like the stage name for a pron star from Lapland.

Sounds like we have the same viewing habits. 

[HighStakes]

12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Is it the same Arctic Hammer that was progged for Jan 11 at D+12 lead? 

The extreme cold looks are just for entertainment value only but I would say models have done a pretty good job handling the cold. There's a pretty good shot coming down next week around the 14th. 

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, Heisy said:

It was really only the GFS that was showing the fantasy event. When the GFS is alone on a mountain like that you usually have to ignore it. cmc had a moderate event for 2-3 runs. The euro and euro Ai have been pretty solid on this event for a while. I think the euro had 1-2 runs where it blew it up, but other than that it’s been pretty good. They gave us a signal of a wave at this time frame going back 10+ days, that’s pretty good to me.

Meanwhile, 12z euro has my Jan 20 snow event.


.

Euro had 1 run showing the bomb and Gfs 2. Either way, this exercise only proves anything beyond day 4 or 5 is weenie fodder. 

That said, what time should we start to see the first flakes on the 20th?