Paleocene Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 OP GFS has a juicy southern wave rolling out of texas and thru the gulf states around D10, so, aligning with the EPS's idea of something headed our way around the 19-20th. In OP la-la land its too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 A crippling storm on Inauguration Day would work. 9 1 2 1 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 We have to flirt with "maybe too warm" to have a good chance at a storm at all. These things don't have 1000 mile wide snow swaths...if the pattern is so suppressive that there is absolutely no chance of rain here it means we probably have no chance at snow either lol. Once we get closer you can hone in on those details, but from day 10-15 to have a good chance of precip we probably have to be close enough to the boundary that rain is always a risk. Just have to roll the dice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 To clarify, being in a generally good pattern but close to the boundary such that rain v snow is a debate is NOT the same as being in a crap pattern where its 99% likely to be rain in any precip event. Storms ride the thermal boundary so we are always flirting with rain v snow in any legit threat from day 10. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: We have to flirt with "maybe too warm" to have a good chance at a storm at all. These things don't have 1000 mile wide snow swaths...if the pattern is so suppressive that there is absolutely no chance of rain here it means we probably have no chance at snow either lol. Once we get closer you can hone in on those details, but from day 10-15 to have a good chance of precip we probably have to be close enough to the boundary that rain is always a risk. Just have to roll the dice. Given the cold being forecast to persist we could win the thermals coin flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Cause I’m bored. Euro with the smoke At day 11. 13 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: To clarify, being in a generally good pattern but close to the boundary such that rain v snow is a debate is NOT the same as being in a crap pattern where its 99% likely to be rain in any precip event. Storms ride the thermal boundary so we are always flirting with rain v snow in any legit threat from day 10. Yessir. Temp wise the pattern looks pretty much climo norms with a bias towards colder to me. But it also looks like the storm track could be anywhere along the eastern 3rd of the country. We are in the heart of cold snow climo with the minimum temp anomaly required. Timing is good for the general setup. Down the line keeps looking more and more like jan/Feb 2014-15 lol. The ultimate progression would be a couple weeks of the +tnh pattern followed by a -AO/NAO reload. Hahaha 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I wish we h ad more accurate models more then 2 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Yeah, Euro has it. Looks like the 20th it is. 5 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I wish we h ad more accurate models more then 2 days out It was really only the GFS that was showing the fantasy event. When the GFS is alone on a mountain like that you usually have to ignore it. cmc had a moderate event for 2-3 runs. The euro and euro Ai have been pretty solid on this event for a while. I think the euro had 1-2 runs where it blew it up, but other than that it’s been pretty good. They gave us a signal of a wave at this time frame going back 10+ days, that’s pretty good to me.Meanwhile, 12z euro has my Jan 20 snow event.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, Ruin said: I wish we h ad more accurate models more then 2 days out I have mixed feelings on this. I do wish we had better models, but they are pretty dang amazing! The many variables that are challenges for storms makes the hunt and chase fun too.. the issue is, we do not bag many storms. It is the reality. BUT it is all a learning thing. The hunt, to me, is very exciting.. I love a good snow and I love watching it fall and the way it coats everything.... BUT IMMEDIATELY - I am checking models for the next system.. it is like crack! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Then the Arctic hammer behind the storm on the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Then the Arctic hammer behind the storm on the 20th. Is it the same Arctic Hammer that was progged for Jan 11 at D+12 lead? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is it the same Arctic Hammer that was progged for Jan 11 at D+12 lead? Did you want it colder and more surpressed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 18 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Then the Arctic hammer behind the storm on the 20th. Arctic Hammer...sounds like the stage name for a pron star from Lapland. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, mattie g said: Arctic Hammer...sounds like the stage name for a pron star from Lapland. Sounds like we have the same viewing habits. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is it the same Arctic Hammer that was progged for Jan 11 at D+12 lead? The extreme cold looks are just for entertainment value only but I would say models have done a pretty good job handling the cold. There's a pretty good shot coming down next week around the 14th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 25 minutes ago, Heisy said: It was really only the GFS that was showing the fantasy event. When the GFS is alone on a mountain like that you usually have to ignore it. cmc had a moderate event for 2-3 runs. The euro and euro Ai have been pretty solid on this event for a while. I think the euro had 1-2 runs where it blew it up, but other than that it’s been pretty good. They gave us a signal of a wave at this time frame going back 10+ days, that’s pretty good to me. Meanwhile, 12z euro has my Jan 20 snow event. . Euro had 1 run showing the bomb and Gfs 2. Either way, this exercise only proves anything beyond day 4 or 5 is weenie fodder. That said, what time should we start to see the first flakes on the 20th? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Arctic Hammer...sounds like the stage name for a pron star from Lapland. 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: Sounds like we have the same viewing habits. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I’d roll with this look . 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Euro has a ridiculously energetic vort dropping into Montana/North Dakota at 324. Fun to look at. Would be cool to see it phase with the energy over the Gulf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Heisy said: I’d roll with this look . I imagine a nice WSW-ENE overrunning event with that gradient pattern. Classic N/W suburbs event with i-95 riding the R/S/mix line 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Fyi, that cold shot has been on all medium range guidance for days, so consider something along the lines of the operational Euro to be credible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 39 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, Euro has it. Looks like the 20th it is. MECS-LK Day (tm) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Fyi, that cold shot has been on all medium range guidance for days, so consider something along the lines of the operational Euro to be credible. Heh I’ll pass. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Heh I’ll pass. lol Gimme. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Fwiw, 12z Euro AI has an overrunning event start around 330hrs and we're on the wrong side. But the EuroAI does jump around past 240hrs. 0z, fwiw, looked like today's 12z snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Fwiw, 12z Euro AI has an overrunning event start around 330hrs and we're on the wrong side. But the EuroAI does jump around past 240hrs. 0z, fwiw, looked like today's 12z snow.Did you mean the 6z or the 12z cause the 12z isn’t out on wxbell yet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Did you mean the 6z or the 12z cause the 12z isn’t out on wxbell yet . 12z. It's out on the Euro site. You just have to piece it together. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]} 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is it the same Arctic Hammer that was progged for Jan 11 at D+12 lead? Temps are not forecast to be much below my lowest high is 29. Most this week low 30s dunno why the temp guidance pushed out 15 to 25 below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts