January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[stormtracker]

So, when's the next threat?

[Interstate]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So, when's the next threat?

Monday Jan 20th

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So, when's the next threat?

hard to say but one thing looks solid is the repeated re-load of the cold.  guess we got that in our knickers

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So, when's the next threat?

EuroAI

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025010800&fh=312

[WxUSAF]

19 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So, when's the next threat?

MLK weekend generally looks like it has potential. EPS has a favorable longwave pattern and snow maps have a decent signal for that range. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Not sure why we're punting saturday already.  Some models still give us 1-3. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

MLK weekend generally looks like it has potential. EPS has a favorable longwave pattern and snow maps have a decent signal for that range. 

See above

[mitchnick]

If we can get a refresher this weekend and then a bigger threat the following weekend or so, that's all we can reasonably ask for around here in an "average " winter imho.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Not sure why we're punting saturday already.  Some models still give us 1-3. 

Nobody punted yet.   I'm giving it until 12z today.   We normally see positives trends with each run if this thing is gonna turn around.   Sometimes we've gone 1 step forward, 2 steps back.   Not really encouraging.  Some mods even skunk us, so yeah.  Obviously we keep watching, but I'm gonna divest after 12z if nothing changes. 

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So, when's the next threat?

 

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

MLK weekend generally looks like it has potential. EPS has a favorable longwave pattern and snow maps have a decent signal for that range. 

Agree. NS looks to be a shred factory for a while until then. 50/50 set up too far Sw is a big part of the issue. Too much of a good thing. 

[dailylurker]

I started a thread for the weekend so this can be for the MLK blizzard discussion. 

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nobody punted yet.   I'm giving it until 12z today.   We normally see positives trends with each run if this thing is gonna turn around.   Sometimes we've gone 1 step forward, 2 steps back.   Not really encouraging.  Some mods even skunk us, so yeah.  Obviously we keep watching, but I'm gonna divest after 12z if nothing changes. 

we would crap our pants for 1-3".  guess we are getting spoiled being a snow town again.  I'll take an inch or 2 with snow falling and not being at work..another reason to punt dry January a little longer

[stormtracker]

Just now, BristowWx said:

we would crap our pants for 1-3".  guess we are getting spoiled being a snow town again.  I'll take an inch or 2 with snow falling and not being at work..another reason to punt dry January a little longer

I'd love 1-3, but even that's in peril

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Agree. NS looks to be a shred factory for a while until then. 50/50 set up too far Sw is a big part of the issue. Too much of a good thing. 

Agree. Something can still wiggle thru but there is little if any chance at an organized system for the next 10-12 days. Interesting after though. Plenty of residual cold and no big mechanism to kick it out. A basic cold front would be enough to flip to snow ready if we go warm for a few days. 

Ens mean precip panels pretty much agree that the next organized system is coming out of the deep south so gulf appears open. CAD/west tracks could work "ok" if we can't get something more classic. Optimism is pretty high for me even if things get a little messy 

[Bob Chill]

Hard to not like this trio of ens mean panels even though it's late in their runs.... Crazy similar for d12+. Uncommon for sure 

 

 

[stormtracker]

And of course, 12z NAM has changes, positive...southern vort more east, enrgy on the backside more wester, some height rise in front.  But it's still not gonna be wholesale changes we need for some big storm.  But maybe it'll get more precip up to us.

[dailylurker]

Just now, stormtracker said:

And of course, 12z NAM has changes, positive...southern vort more east, enrgy on the backside more wester, some height rise in front.  But it's still not gonna be wholesale changes we need for some big storm.  But maybe it'll get more precip up to us.

It's because I started a thread lol

[stormtracker]

The changes are pretty notable in 12z vs 6z before the inevitable nrn vort beatdown.   But it's def more amp'd out ahead.   Let's see if that mitigates the beatdown coming from the north

[Heisy]

6z euro Ai setup going into the 20th time frame

It’s a decent setup for an overrunning event, see how it plays out once we get closer.

This is the next time frame to watch for anything major as others have mentioned




.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The changes are pretty notable in 12z vs 6z

Pretty sure all players are onshore now, or close enough, so 12z runs are probably the last opportunity for notable changes, if any.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Pretty sure all players are onshore now, or close enough, so 12z runs are probably the last opportunity for notable changes, if any.

Some notable changes on this one vs 6z and even 0z.   Again, not getting anyone's hopes up, the nrn vort is still gonna crush the heights in front, but right up until that moment, there are some positive changes out west.

[stormtracker]

I wish we actually could control the weather and either blow up the nrn vort or move that sw vort energy in front of it

[mitchnick]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Some notable changes on this one vs 6z and even 0z.   Again, not getting anyone's hopes up, the nrn vort is still gonna crush the heights in front, but right up until that moment, there are some positive changes out west.

Surface-wise, if we want action from the slp, we want to see the rn/sn line move north down south which would signal a northerly trajectory. But chances are not high, of course.

[Ji]

58 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Monday Jan 20th

that was funny. How come Randy allows that but not the Greenland Block comment

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Surface-wise, if we want action from the slp, we want to see the rn/sn line move north down south which would signal a northerly trajectory. But chances are not high, of course.

Angle of precip is def pointed more NW...but again, just waiting for the nrn vort to fuck it all up.   

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

that was funny. How come Randy allows that but not the Greenland Block comment

Probably because it's the actual date of the next storm threat?

[mitchnick]

48hrs this run vs 0z and 6z

[stormtracker]

Funny @mattie g, but post will 100% start this thread to go off the rails.  No no.

[stormtracker]

I got an office tour today for some dignitaries.   I'm already irritated I have to do it...but prob gonna miss the results of this run and 12z gfs.   But yeah, this is definitely a positive change.   Just wish that nrn vort wasn't there

[Ravens94]

FV3 is more amped too so far