January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I'm at 81...it's def stronger.  Just not sure what that means so far, especially since the confluence is the same

Also a bit slower

[Terpeast]

84h, closed low about to go neg tilt

[mitchnick]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Also a bit slower

Give Atlantic vort more time to move

[LordBaltimore]

32 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Only thing should be taken somewhat seriously on the icon is the low track. It isn’t great with qpf and its snow maps always lower than any model. 

People misuse the ICON all the time. If you look at the data assimilation under the hood it's more like a global version of the RAP with 3denVAR and BC's used for regional models and such

[stormtracker]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Also a bit slower

Yup.  But the s/w is a good bit stronger and consolidated.  

[stormtracker]

at 93...s/w strength is way more robust.  closed contour vs 18z

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

at 93...s/w strength is way more robust.  closed contour vs 18z

And confluence actually stronger…!?

[mitchnick]

Better move before it occludes

[stormtracker]

It's appears to be wetter approaching.   Precip starts around 2am Monday

[ChillinIt]

This should be good!

[wxmeddler]

slower and way more amped

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

And confluence actually stronger…!?

Seems like it so far.  That will probably mitigate the increase in strength of the s/w

[stormtracker]

It's going to be a better run

[Terpeast]

Looks similar to yesterday’s 0z

[stormtracker]

Moderate snow at 7a Monday

[stormtracker]

11a...moderate snow continues

[stormtracker]

1pm..mod snows continue with light snow line sweeping east 

[stormtracker]

Vastly improved from 18z.  looks like 4-8 inches

[stormtracker]

Final 6-10...DC southern end...Balt northern end

[TSSN+]

[Ji]

Final 6-10...DC southern end...Balt northern end

Well damn

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Ji said:

Well damn

I thought you said you didn’t want it to jump north 

[rjvanals]

It's slower than other guidance which gets the snow in here by sunset Sunday vs the GFS midnight start time so still some model wars

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Well damn

Last panels...8-10 most of us.  But we all know my snow maps are shit.  Wait for the pretty maps

[bncho]

That's the best run from the GFS for this storm system. 6-10" and DC is the bullseye. Everybody should be happy with this (unless 06z is more north).

[Ji]

I thought you said you didn’t want it to jump north 

We don’t know how much further it will go though right?

[NorthArlington101]

[Buddy1987]

Wayyy too amped. Had a bad feeling this would transpire. Congrats to those north of here. 

[Terpeast]

Looks similar to todays 12z gfs

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Ji said:

We don’t know how much further it will go though right?

Around the equator and back probably