January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

ICON has a nice DC snow hole 

If DC gets a snow hole in January it usually persists throughout the season... is what I would say if they didn't get 7 inches yesterday.

[Warm Nose]

Next.

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, 87storms said:

Friday's squall'y day is underrated.  I actually think that was more exciting weather-wise than yesterday lol, at least up here where I received about 0.5" after 8am.

It did snow harder Friday but I got 8” and some good moderate to heavy rates for many hours with this 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The next strong signal for a storm across guidance isn’t until day 12-15. Hopefully something comes up before then but unfortunately the overly suppressed dry fears might be becoming more likely which was always the most likely issue with this pattern. 

The cold air was solid but gentle this time, I think a general trend of cold but unusually non suppressive will occur.

Damn sure fun so far. 

[stormtracker]

What do we do if the GFS/Euro don't budge?  We waiting until tomorrow for COD (call of death)?

[stormtracker]

I'm gonna hang in there until 0z tomorrow unless 18z is just a complete toilet.  

[PrinceFrederickWx]

56 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yep. And like I said, this week was really an early bonus...To me, our prime climo is Jan 15th-PD. There have been great winters where the goods didn't come until that period anyway.

That’s always how it’s been historically, but over the last decade it seems to have shifted to the first three weeks of January. I have no idea if that’s just a weird coincidence like Dec. 5 was in the 2000’s, or if it’s a shift towards a new normal.

[stormtracker]

Has the sw vort a little easter and the vort coming down the backside a little more dug in...heights are higher in front over the central/east US...but...I mean, it's nothing eye raising so far

[stormtracker]

If I see something positive I'll comment.  Otherwise im just gonna let it run till game time.

It's definitely more amplified in front..still not gonna full phase tho. Let's see where this goes

[stormtracker]

Nice little snow/ice event for ATL.  Yall don't care, but not much to say at this point.

[wxdude64]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Nice little snow/ice event for ATL.  Yall don't care, but not much to say at this point.

When was the last time ATL got anything?

[psuhoffman]

The trough is trending more positive every run. It’s going the wrong way. 

[Chris78]

Next

[stormtracker]

 Meh.  Goodnight.  Not staying up for the Euro.  To tired and high for this blah shit

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The trough is trending more positive every run. It’s going the wrong way. 

Ah well...time to punt this one away. Feels like if we were gonna see a positive change it would've been tonight.

[wxdude64]

3 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

When was the last time ATL got anything?

Answer my own question, Dec of '22 they got 0.1. You have to go back to 2018 for an actual snow. 

[MillvilleWx]

Heights flatter as it approaches our area. Trajectory of the 7H moisture field is east-northeast and too far south. Best chance in the sub for anything of significance is likely south of Rt50 and mainly the Eastern Shores of MD/DE/Part of VA. This wasn't a good run for many here. Not totally dead, but approaching if this keeps up. The 5H pattern was just not applicable for our latitude. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

37 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What do we do if the GFS/Euro don't budge?  We waiting until tomorrow for COD (call of death)?

I'd only COD if theres zero chance for any accumulation, the bomb was a long shot.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

CWG says so too.

I think our coldest historical stretch just started for 2 weeks but snowier is later. Cold is vital but can’t overwhelm, it’s cold 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

I think our coldest stretch just started for 2 weeks but snowier is later. Cold is vital but can’t overwhelm, it’s cold 

No I mean the prime snow climo period based off of historical data. DC's window of opportunity is usually from MLK Day to President's Day.

[WEATHER53]

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nice little snow/ice event for ATL.  Yall don't care, but not much to say at this point.

I care because if that can gain enough latitude then its good place for us to have it passed 

[87storms]

Heights flatter as it approaches our area. Trajectory of the 7H moisture field is east-northeast and too far south. Best chance in the sub for anything of significance is likely south of Rt50 and mainly the Eastern Shores of MD/DE/Part of VA. This wasn't a good run for many here. Not totally dead, but approaching if this keeps up. The 5H pattern was just not applicable for our latitude. 

What’s interesting on the gfs is how similar it is to 3 days ago before the trough started going more neutral/negative.

[WEATHER53]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

No I mean the prime snow climo period based off of historical data. DC's window of opportunity is usually from MLK Day to President's Day.

Yes that’s what I mean. Best snow IS at end of and after our coldest  period 

[WEATHER53]

Anyway

Its a snow pattern until it isn’t.  Thunder to usher it in, Then thunder snow squall. Then 4-8+.

Then……….

 

[Kevin Reilly]

37 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

When was the last time ATL got anything?

1993?

[midatlanticweather]

When is the next window?

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

When is the next window?

 

Day 15-20

[snowmagnet]

5 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

1993?

Boxing Day Storm 

[MDScienceTeacher]

1 hour ago, snowmagnet said:

Boxing Day Storm 

2014.. they had their comutageddon 

https://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-news/atlanta-snowmaggedon-2014-the-january-snow-storm-that-paralyzed-atlanta/KTEPKGS2RNHBTEOCIOFVSKNWFE/

[dailylurker]

Gfs didn't look bad. It's worth watching for us east of DC. My expectations are for a cloudy, wintery Saturday with some snow in the air. An inch or two would be a bonus.