January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

so far, nrn vort aint as diggy

Kinda feel like once we see that we know where the rest of the run is gonna go...

[stormtracker]

We moonwalking backward.  Flatter out front...less energy join in the game so far

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

What are we cheering for again?

Shit man, I don't know tbh

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Kinda feel like once we see that we know where the rest of the run is gonna go...

Depends there are other paths. If the NS wave hangs back more it being out of the way could allow a better solution.  But those playing nice was the best option.  

[stormtracker]

Bah humbug.  It ain't lookin to good vs 18z.   Don't shoot the messenger.   Where's jgwentworth?  I have a held back vortmax, but I need it now.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The next strong signal for a storm across guidance isn’t until day 12-15. Hopefully something comes up before then but unfortunately the overly suppressed dry fears might be becoming more likely which was always the most likely issue with this pattern. 

Question is will it be perpetually 12-15 days away?

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The next strong signal for a storm across guidance isn’t until day 12-15. Hopefully something comes up before then but unfortunately the overly suppressed dry fears might be becoming more likely which was always the most likely issue with this pattern. 

Not great. So much for those above average precip predictions for January. Gonna be behind if Saturday is a dud and really behind if the next 12 plus days have nothing.

[wxdude64]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

What are we cheering for again?

Something to make it snow around here?

[Ji]

Bah humbug.  It ain't lookin to good vs 18z.   Don't shoot the messenger.   Where's jgwentworth?  I have a held back vortmax, but I need it now.

18z looked bad though lol

[Ji]

This looks like a new solution. The precip so far is more north fwiw

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

This looks like a new solution. The precip so far is more north fwiw

My outlook could be totally wrong because I'm not sure wtf we are hoping for

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Not great. So much for those above average precip predictions for January. Gonna be behind if Saturday is a dud and really behind if the next 12 plus days have nothing.

12 days brings us to the 19th. That gives us 12 days at the end of the month to get to AN precip  *if* nothing pops up  before then. That is plenty of time, the month is far from over. See late Jan 1987 as an example.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

My outlook could be totally wrong because I'm not sure wtf we are hoping for

I’m kinda thinking our best shot at a decent snow might be the NS out of the way more and allow the moisture to ride the trough more. It’s lower upside but getting any kind of phase is becoming unlikely. 

[Ji]

My outlook could be totally wrong because I'm not sure wtf we are hoping for

I see one shortwave in south central Canada that was in southern Minnesota at 18z

[wxdude64]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

12 days brings us to the 19th. That gives us 12 days at the end of the month to get to AN precip  *if* nothing pops up  before then. That is plenty of time, the month is far from over. See late Jan 1987 as an example.

*would be 100% for Jan 1987 as a repeat for 2025*

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

12 days brings us to the 19th. That gives us 12 days at the end of the month to get to AN precip  *if* nothing pops up  before then. That is plenty of time, the month is far from over. See late Jan 1987 as an example.

Yep. And like I said, this week was really an early bonus...To me, our prime climo is Jan 15th-PD. There have been great winters where the goods didn't come until that period anyway.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

To me, our prime climo is Jan 15th-PD.

CWG says so too.

[SnowenOutThere]

Precip shield out west looks more consolidated as the north stream seems less problematic 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I see one shortwave in south central Canada that was in southern Minnesota at 18z

Dead ratter.   See you for the GFS

[stormtracker]

We get some sympathy flakes...but it's clearly heading out to sea.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

We get some sympathy flakes...but it's clearly heading out to sea.

Oy...pathetique. Reeeeal pathetique...

[Ji]

We get some sympathy flakes...but it's clearly heading out to sea.

That looks like more than a few lonesome flakes

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We get some sympathy flakes...but it's clearly heading out to sea.

I mean its not gonna turn up the coast but we do get into its precip shield

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

That looks like more than a few lonesome flakes

I'm not using crayola maps that color any amount of precip.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I'm not using crayola maps that color any amount of precip.

What's your favorite flavor? I like magenta 

[Beagles20]

I think we have a courtesy L pressure to the north letting the southern L to pass through first.  What is causing it to hang out between hours 57 and 81?  It basically doesn't move.  I am not a meterologist so I am seriously asking.  I have never seen that without blocking.  Is it because of the system we are watching to the south?

[wasnow215]

It's the NAM at its worst range as precip arrives towards us but to me it looks "healthier" overall than 18z. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

That looks like more than a few lonesome flakes

[MDScienceTeacher]

10 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

It's the NAM at its worst range

But it basically shows what the gfs and euro are showing 

[rjvanals]

ICON has a nice DC snow hole