SnowenOutThere Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, CAPE said: You need to look at more than a snow map to understand why the modeled snowfall looks this way. Plus this is a total snow map. Oh I was looking at the H5 map and the vort map I just had no idea what would actually lead to a better storm after comparing runs. I can tell setups like the one we just had on an H5 level but not this mess of phases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 18z ensembles took a step back though but it looks like it shows a stronger storm but the track is worse 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 GFS looks like a jack the same places that got it for this last storm. "It snows where it wants to snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 18z Gem https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=cmc_gdps&run=18&stn=QQ500&hh=084&map=na&stn2=PT&run2=18&mod2=cmc_gdps&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 33 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: @Bob Chill jackpot! Been liking this one a lot. A fairly uncomplicated 3-6 deal all snow falling on frozen ground. First event in 3 years to do that here. You're in a decent spot too. I never felt like this one had the pieces for a big event so I'm getting pretty excited. Gfs is prob a top end solution. 3-4" would look amazing around here. I'll take a ton of pics cuz it may never happen again 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Gem https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=cmc_gdps&run=18&stn=QQ500&hh=084&map=na&stn2=PT&run2=18&mod2=cmc_gdps&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo Unless I am reading that wrong, but that looks promising! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 15 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Oh I was looking at the H5 map and the vort map I just had no idea what would actually lead to a better storm after comparing runs. I can tell setups like the one we just had on an H5 level but not this mess of phases. It is busy. Amplified pattern with plenty of vorticity in the flow, and intricate interactions determine the ultimate outcome for our period of interest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 26 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Kuchera is useful in some cases, but you really have to be mindful of the algo. Last storm was a case that it differed from model to model and if you didn’t account for that (Hello, it’s me), then you could be a little too high on the forecast. HRRR corrected inside 12 hrs with the last forecast and that’s why totals dropped and became more realistic. RAP and a lot of the other CAMs did not and it inflated everything. This is a 10:1 type storm with MAYBE slightly higher for areas that get banded, like the eastern shore. EVEN THEN, 10:1 might still be the preference here. This is something I will be mindful of in the future, for sure. Qpf I make my own adjustments in my head on possible totals based on the storm setup. Snow maps are lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, IronTy said: GFS looks like a jack the same places that got it for this last storm. "It snows where it wants to snow" Train tracks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 38 minutes ago, high risk said: It's driven by lower-atmosphere temperatures. It's great at chopping amounts in marginal temperature environments, and the premise that SLRs will be better than 10:1 in cold environments has some truth, but it's not as simple as colder=better SLR, so it goes nuts when the air mass is cold. Relatable. 18z GFS - take and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 13 minutes ago, Scraff said: Unless I am reading that wrong, but that looks promising! Looks similar to the gfs. Low pressure over central Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 18z Euro has 0"-1" inch forum wide. Jackpot is Bob Chill! Congrats! Fucking thing won't budge 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 18z Euro has 0"-1" inch forum wide. Jackpot is Bob Chill! Congrats! Fucking thing won't budge Last storm it had 12-16” for me and would not budge. I ended up with 8.5” after the 2” in the second round last night. I am not complaining, I’m just saying it is a model and stating the obvious that it is not infallible just bc it has the best verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 18z Euro has 0"-1" inch forum wide. Jackpot is Bob Chill! Congrats! Fucking thing won't budge My hunch was wrong. Its worse. That NS vorticity comes right over the top like a wrecking ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: I need a cash settlement. It's YOUR Money! Use it when YOU need it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, CAPE said: My hunch was wrong. Its worse. That NS vorticity comes right over the top like a wrecking ball. What was your original hunch? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Jebman said: It's YOUR Money! Use it when YOU need it! Call JG WENTWORTH, 877-CASH-NOWWWWWW! Call now! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, rjvanals said: If the GFS is right we're only ~80 hours from the first flakes from this storm so it's getting late kinda early if we want big changes Not necessarily. Change is not a clock watcher. It's dependent on other things but not time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 18z Euro has 0"-1" inch forum wide. Jackpot is Bob Chill! Congrats! Fucking thing won't budge I'm kinda surprised the euro didn't at least make a small move better. It's pretty dang juicy down south. Euro goes all ginsu n chit as it comes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm kinda surprised the euro didn't at least make a small move better. It's pretty dang juicy down south. Euro goes all ginsu n chit as it comes north. It will. We all know how this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: What was your original hunch? Lol Read up a few posts. I thought the Euro took a step towards the GFS on its 12z run, and that it might get closer to phasing that energy in just behind the southern shortwave on the 18z run. Instead it comes in overtop, suppresses the developing southern low and kicks it off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Euro has the PB lobe in eastern Canada the furthest southeast which destroys the chance of anything getting north of the carolinas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Am I imagining a weenie rule that the gfs handles northern stream better? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I am gonna need a phase to tuck this. So I am most likely cooked. Will definitely go to the beach this time if necessary though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 9 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Am I imagining a weenie rule that the gfs handles northern stream better? Yes jk- I think that is a rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I am gonna need a phase to tuck this. So I am most likely cooked. Will definitely go to the beach this time if necessary though. Outside of a lucky inch or so, I think we’re cooked for this one 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Outside of a lucky inch or so, I think we’re cooked for this one Next 7 days look dry, but cold. Thought we had a chance with this one, but looking slim at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Read up a few posts. I thought the Euro took a step towards the GFS on its 12z run, and that it might get closer to phasing that energy in just behind the southern shortwave on the 18z run. Instead it comes in overtop, suppresses the developing southern low and kicks it off the SE coast. Have no clue how I looked right at that post and missed that point--my bad, lol And ah well...if this one is indeed cooked, getting 1/2 threats in a week to hit ain't so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Have no clue how I looked right at that post and missed that point--my bad, lol And ah well...if this one is indeed cooked, getting 1/2 threats in a week to hit ain't so bad Friday's squall'y day is underrated. I actually think that was more exciting weather-wise than yesterday lol, at least up here where I received about 0.5" after 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, frd said: Next 7 days look dry, but cold. Thought we had a chance with this one, but looking slim at the moment. I feel like this next system could still make a sneaky shift north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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