WEATHER53 Posted Tuesday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:48 PM Expect it to snow When DC flips on the rusted and hard to move snow switch then Magic happens. I got a mostly white beard and seen it happen by golly!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:48 PM At the gym. Yinz on your own for the gfs. Good luck 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Tuesday at 09:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:49 PM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: At the gym. Yinz on your own for the gfs. Good luck Move this to banter please!!!!!!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted Tuesday at 09:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:50 PM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: At the gym. Yinz on your own for the gfs. Good luck Daggone NY resolutions messin with the PBP! Hahaha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 09:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:55 PM 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Daggone NY resolutions messin with the PBP! Hahaha Been going for 14 years now. The resolutioners are the worst and they are crawling all over here. They usually drop off by March tho. 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Tuesday at 09:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:55 PM 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: At the gym. Yinz on your own for the gfs. Good luck Apparently Pittsburg is Mid Atlantic now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 09:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:56 PM 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Apparently Pittsburg is Mid Atlantic now I just like the word. I’m borrowing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted Tuesday at 09:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:57 PM the way this is trending (looking at the last 8 GFS runs), by game time we'll have a Great Lakes Bomb Cyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Tuesday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:00 PM 2 minutes ago, paulythegun said: the way this is trending (looking at the last 8 GFS runs), by game time we'll have a Great Lakes Bomb Cyclone At 84 that energy is phasing into the backside of the system pressing eastward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Tuesday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:00 PM I have no idea what just happened with the GFS, but it does still snow. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:00 PM I'd take the 18z GFS and run 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgentworth Posted Tuesday at 10:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:02 PM untrained eye, comparing to 12z, it looks like 18z heights out front are slightly steeper and the trough is slightly more neutral allowing the surface to be slightly (just a tick NW). 18z Precip shield seems a bit broader 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Tuesday at 10:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:02 PM 1 minute ago, yoda said: I'd take the 18z GFS and run Yep, snow on snow. Nice 3-4" refresh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Tuesday at 10:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:02 PM With this kind of setup, a correction north --- or south (more possible) could be seen! This looked pretty good! It gets all VA some love (except maybe far SE VA)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Tuesday at 10:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:03 PM Just now, jgentworth said: untrained eye, comparing to 12z, it looks like 18z heights out front are slightly steeper and the trough is slightly more neutral allowing the surface to be slightly (just a tick NW). 18z Precip shield seems a bit broader Your username just got a jingle stuck in my head. I approve of your analysis though. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 10:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:04 PM 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Tuesday at 10:05 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:05 PM 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: At the gym. Yinz on your own for the gfs. Good luck Damn. Was hoping you'd be at the bar drinking complimentary tequila shots again, while doing the PBP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Tuesday at 10:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:06 PM 4 minutes ago, jgentworth said: untrained eye, comparing to 12z, it looks like 18z heights out front are slightly steeper and the trough is slightly more neutral allowing the surface to be slightly (just a tick NW). 18z Precip shield seems a bit broader I need a cash settlement. 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Tuesday at 10:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:07 PM Just now, stormtracker said: I need a cash settlement. Only if you bring snow now 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Tuesday at 10:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:07 PM 1 minute ago, yoda said: Can't hate that, really! Though I though the use of Kuchera ratios was perhaps not the best. Still, that is a nice advisory-level event in these parts (warning level in some others). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Tuesday at 10:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:09 PM 2 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Can't hate that, really! Though I though the use of Kuchera ratios was perhaps not the best. Still, that is a nice advisory-level event in these parts (warning level in some others). QPF 0.3 for IAD and 0.46 for DCA. Apply your own snow ratios... 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted Tuesday at 10:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:09 PM If the GFS is right we're only ~80 hours from the first flakes from this storm so it's getting late kinda early if we want big changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 10:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:10 PM Euro made a step towards the GFS with phasing in that last piece of NS energy earlier on the 12z run, and it was closer to something decent at the surface, but discombobulated. It takes a bigger step this run I believe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Tuesday at 10:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:11 PM Just now, CAPE said: Euro made a step towards the GFS with phasing in that last piece of NS energy earlier on the 12z run, and it was closer to something decent at the surface, but discombobulated. It takes a bigger step this run I believe. 12z, right? 18z hasn't run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Tuesday at 10:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:12 PM Temps look good at surface, 850, and 700. Cold on cold, snow on snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Tuesday at 10:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:13 PM 7 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Damn. Was hoping you'd be at the bar drinking complimentary tequila shots again, while doing the PBP! We probably wouldn't have gotten any pbp at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Tuesday at 10:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:15 PM 6 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Can't hate that, really! Though I though the use of Kuchera ratios was perhaps not the best. Still, that is a nice advisory-level event in these parts (warning level in some others). Thank you. The Kuchera drives me nuts. It always feels like this is 10:1 and this is the same case with Kuchera: 2 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 10:20 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:20 PM 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 12z, right? 18z hasn't run yet Yes 12z. I think that's what I said lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Tuesday at 10:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:21 PM 12 minutes ago, Terpeast said: QPF 0.3 for IAD and 0.46 for DCA. Apply your own snow ratios... done 20:1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Tuesday at 10:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:22 PM 5 minutes ago, high risk said: Thank you. The Kuchera drives me nuts. It always feels like this is 10:1 and this is the same case with Kuchera: Actually, in all seriousness, I don't even know what method is used to compute the Kuchera ratios. Maybe it's good in some situations, but I've heard so many mixed things about it. Seems almost better to show 10:1 and go from there, fudge as needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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